Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#106
Achievement Rating+3.9#121
Pace69.3#171
Improvement+0.8#148

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#72
First Shot+2.1#123
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#61
Layup/Dunks+3.5#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#77
Freethrows-1.7#288
Improvement+2.6#55

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot+0.5#153
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#160
Layups/Dunks-2.1#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#20
Freethrows-2.6#324
Improvement-1.8#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.3% 45.8% 40.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 76.5% 80.0% 40.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round45.3% 45.8% 40.1%
Second Round5.4% 5.6% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 91.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 150   @ Northern Illinois W 88-85 54%     1 - 0 +6.5 +2.6 +3.4
  Nov 16, 2018 340   UNC Asheville W 77-50 96%     2 - 0 +10.5 -8.4 +17.7
  Nov 17, 2018 308   Manhattan W 59-53 92%     3 - 0 -5.2 -10.0 +5.2
  Nov 18, 2018 163   Coastal Carolina W 89-83 76%     4 - 0 +3.1 +13.8 -10.8
  Nov 24, 2018 52   @ Central Florida L 53-66 24%     4 - 1 -1.1 -10.2 +8.4
  Nov 27, 2018 268   @ Morehead St. W 93-71 77%     5 - 1 +18.7 +12.7 +5.1
  Nov 30, 2018 219   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 78-60 84%     6 - 1 +11.9 +1.1 +9.7
  Dec 04, 2018 31   @ Cincinnati L 65-78 16%     6 - 2 +2.1 +6.3 -5.4
  Dec 08, 2018 277   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-76 79%     6 - 3 -5.8 -1.4 -4.4
  Dec 16, 2018 144   Miami (OH) W 72-66 70%     7 - 3 +5.0 +6.3 -0.6
  Dec 20, 2018 150   Northern Illinois W 65-62 73%     8 - 3 +1.0 -9.6 +10.6
  Dec 28, 2018 205   IUPUI W 92-77 82%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +9.6 +12.0 -3.1
  Dec 30, 2018 196   Illinois-Chicago W 73-58 81%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +10.1 -0.2 +10.5
  Jan 03, 2019 216   @ Oakland L 74-76 68%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -2.5 +1.2 -3.8
  Jan 05, 2019 260   @ Detroit Mercy W 95-73 76%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +19.1 +22.0 -2.1
  Jan 11, 2019 141   Wright St. W 68-64 70%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +3.0 -0.6 +3.9
  Jan 17, 2019 306   @ Cleveland St. W 91-76 83%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +9.3 +19.4 -9.1
  Jan 19, 2019 283   @ Youngstown St. W 82-74 79%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +4.0 +5.6 -1.5
  Jan 24, 2019 224   Green Bay W 87-65 85%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +15.4 +3.1 +10.6
  Jan 26, 2019 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-60 92%     16 - 4 8 - 1 +1.9 -5.0 +7.1
  Feb 01, 2019 205   @ IUPUI L 77-83 67%     16 - 5 8 - 2 -5.9 +6.6 -12.7
  Feb 03, 2019 196   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-69 65%     16 - 6 8 - 3 -1.3 -5.1 +3.8
  Feb 07, 2019 260   Detroit Mercy W 97-65 88%     17 - 6 9 - 3 +23.6 +17.6 +5.9
  Feb 09, 2019 216   Oakland W 79-64 84%     18 - 6 10 - 3 +9.0 -0.3 +9.2
  Feb 15, 2019 141   @ Wright St. L 77-81 50%     18 - 7 10 - 4 +0.5 +8.0 -7.6
  Feb 21, 2019 283   Youngstown St. W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 23, 2019 306   Cleveland St. W 84-68 93%    
  Feb 28, 2019 304   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-67 82%    
  Mar 02, 2019 224   @ Green Bay W 84-78 69%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 7.6 13.4 - 4.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.3 25.0 49.3 76.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 7.9 13.6 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.3 10.8 38.6 49.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 49.3    31.3 18.0
13-5 64.7% 25.0    7.8 15.8 1.3
12-6 21.1% 2.3    0.2 1.4 0.7 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 76.5% 76.5 39.3 35.2 2.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 49.3% 48.3% 48.3% 13.3 0.1 2.0 12.4 8.8 0.5 25.5
13-5 38.6% 43.8% 43.8% 14.2 0.0 1.5 9.9 5.4 0.1 21.7
12-6 10.8% 38.5% 38.5% 14.6 0.1 1.6 2.4 0.1 6.6
11-7 1.3% 33.8% 33.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.9
10-8 0.1% 37.3% 37.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.3% 45.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 2.0 14.0 20.5 8.5 0.2 54.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.8% 100.0% 13.3 0.2 8.5 52.1 36.9 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.7%