Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#126
Achievement Rating+4.0#131
Pace70.3#170
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#134
First Shot-0.8#204
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#61
Layup/Dunks+2.9#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#72
Freethrows-3.0#311
Improvement+1.1#88

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#120
First Shot+0.7#149
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#109
Layups/Dunks-0.4#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#51
Freethrows-5.3#346
Improvement-1.1#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.0% 33.9% 27.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 98.6% 99.4% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 97.2% 94.7%
Conference Champion 46.0% 48.9% 39.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.4%
First Round31.7% 33.6% 27.2%
Second Round3.7% 4.3% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 162   @ Northern Illinois W 88-85 50%     1 - 0 +5.9 -1.5 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2018 344   UNC Asheville W 77-50 96%     2 - 0 +9.6 -6.1 +14.5
  Nov 17, 2018 320   Manhattan W 59-53 92%     3 - 0 -6.9 -10.2 +3.7
  Nov 18, 2018 188   Coastal Carolina W 89-83 77%     4 - 0 +1.5 +11.8 -10.4
  Nov 24, 2018 43   @ Central Florida L 53-66 17%     4 - 1 +0.3 -8.8 +8.4
  Nov 27, 2018 283   @ Morehead St. W 93-71 74%     5 - 1 +18.2 +12.9 +4.4
  Nov 30, 2018 212   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 78-60 80%     6 - 1 +12.1 -0.1 +11.0
  Dec 04, 2018 24   @ Cincinnati L 65-78 12%     6 - 2 +2.9 +8.5 -6.8
  Dec 08, 2018 272   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-76 73%     6 - 3 -5.2 -3.0 -2.1
  Dec 16, 2018 151   Miami (OH) W 75-70 69%    
  Dec 20, 2018 162   Northern Illinois W 77-71 72%    
  Dec 28, 2018 182   IUPUI W 76-69 76%    
  Dec 30, 2018 168   Illinois-Chicago W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 03, 2019 234   @ Oakland W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 05, 2019 303   @ Detroit Mercy W 81-73 77%    
  Jan 11, 2019 142   Wright St. W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 17, 2019 257   @ Cleveland St. W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 19, 2019 331   @ Youngstown St. W 82-70 86%    
  Jan 24, 2019 204   Green Bay W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 26, 2019 294   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-63 89%    
  Feb 01, 2019 182   @ IUPUI W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 03, 2019 168   @ Illinois-Chicago W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 07, 2019 303   Detroit Mercy W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 09, 2019 234   Oakland W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 15, 2019 142   @ Wright St. L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 21, 2019 331   Youngstown St. W 85-67 94%    
  Feb 23, 2019 257   Cleveland St. W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 28, 2019 294   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-66 75%    
  Mar 02, 2019 204   @ Green Bay W 80-77 59%    
Projected Record 20.6 - 8.4 13.2 - 4.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.2 10.6 12.8 9.7 5.1 1.4 46.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.8 8.3 5.6 1.8 0.2 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.6 5.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 6.5 9.9 13.2 15.8 16.5 14.5 9.9 5.1 1.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 5.1    5.1 0.1
16-2 98.1% 9.7    9.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 87.9% 12.8    10.1 2.5 0.1
14-4 64.1% 10.6    6.1 3.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 33.0% 5.2    1.7 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.1% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.0% 46.0 33.6 10.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 62.5% 61.4% 1.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9%
17-1 5.1% 54.6% 54.2% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.3 0.8%
16-2 9.9% 47.8% 47.8% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.2 0.1%
15-3 14.5% 42.2% 42.2% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.3 0.1 8.4 0.0%
14-4 16.5% 36.0% 36.0% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.4 0.2 10.6
13-5 15.8% 30.2% 30.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.7 0.4 11.0
12-6 13.2% 23.6% 23.6% 15.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.6 10.1
11-7 9.9% 19.2% 19.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.7 8.0
10-8 6.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 5.5
9-9 3.6% 13.0% 13.0% 15.7 0.1 0.3 3.1
8-10 2.1% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.9
7-11 1.0% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 0.9
6-12 0.4% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.0% 32.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.7 10.5 10.4 3.2 68.0 0.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.9 0.5 2.9 24.5 53.9 16.4 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 2.2% 12.3 1.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 5.6% 12.5 0.7 2.1 2.1 0.7