Northwestern St.
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-16.2#347
Achievement Rating-17.8#340
Pace70.8#157
Improvement-0.9#244

Offense
Total Offense-10.7#350
First Shot-11.1#351
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#136
Layup/Dunks-7.1#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#341
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement-0.8#247

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#319
First Shot-0.6#192
After Offensive Rebounds-4.9#352
Layups/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#266
Freethrows-0.5#199
Improvement-0.1#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 6.0% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.9% 30.0% 57.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 114   @ SMU L 58-69 3%     0 - 1 -3.8 -7.6 +2.6
  Nov 13, 2018 65   @ BYU L 57-82 2%     0 - 2 -14.6 -17.2 +5.1
  Nov 17, 2018 315   @ Rice L 74-102 18%     0 - 3 -34.3 -13.4 -16.6
  Nov 19, 2018 33   @ Houston L 55-82 1%     0 - 4 -12.0 -1.7 -13.9
  Nov 23, 2018 351   Alabama A&M W 70-66 67%     1 - 4 -16.8 -15.4 -1.7
  Nov 27, 2018 207   Louisiana Monroe L 52-80 16%     1 - 5 -33.7 -18.1 -18.7
  Dec 01, 2018 214   @ UTEP L 47-77 8%     1 - 6 -30.1 -25.6 -3.2
  Dec 03, 2018 90   @ Texas A&M L 59-80 2%     1 - 7 -12.3 -12.3 +1.1
  Dec 12, 2018 12   @ Texas Tech L 48-83 0.1%   
  Dec 15, 2018 333   Southern L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 02, 2019 255   Nicholls St. L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 05, 2019 310   McNeese St. L 69-73 34%    
  Jan 09, 2019 301   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 12, 2019 159   @ Stephen F. Austin L 61-80 4%    
  Jan 19, 2019 164   @ Abilene Christian L 57-76 4%    
  Jan 23, 2019 291   Sam Houston St. L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 26, 2019 288   SE Louisiana L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 30, 2019 263   @ New Orleans L 60-73 12%    
  Feb 02, 2019 278   @ Central Arkansas L 68-81 13%    
  Feb 06, 2019 263   New Orleans L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 09, 2019 310   @ McNeese St. L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 13, 2019 230   @ Lamar L 62-77 9%    
  Feb 16, 2019 159   Stephen F. Austin L 64-77 12%    
  Feb 20, 2019 284   @ Houston Baptist L 73-85 14%    
  Feb 27, 2019 339   Incarnate Word L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 02, 2019 288   @ SE Louisiana L 59-71 14%    
  Mar 06, 2019 255   @ Nicholls St. L 64-78 11%    
  Mar 09, 2019 278   Central Arkansas L 71-78 28%    
Projected Record 4.9 - 23.1 3.6 - 14.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.4 1.2 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 12.9 11th
12th 0.7 3.7 8.2 8.7 4.0 0.6 0.0 25.8 12th
13th 4.4 11.0 13.7 10.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 43.7 13th
Total 4.4 11.7 17.4 19.2 16.8 12.5 8.4 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 45.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 19.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
8-10 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
7-11 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-12 8.4% 8.4
5-13 12.5% 12.5
4-14 16.8% 16.8
3-15 19.2% 19.2
2-16 17.4% 17.4
1-17 11.7% 11.7
0-18 4.4% 4.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%