Oregon St.
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#75
Achievement Rating+7.8#73
Pace65.7#270
Improvement-0.6#213

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#53
First Shot+3.3#76
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#72
Layup/Dunks+6.6#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#278
Freethrows+1.6#71
Improvement+1.6#103

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#123
First Shot+1.9#112
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#182
Layups/Dunks+0.7#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
Freethrows+1.8#63
Improvement-2.2#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 18.6% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 8.4% 2.5%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 100.0% 95.9%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 5.7% 1.9%
First Round11.7% 15.4% 8.9%
Second Round3.0% 4.1% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 311   UC Riverside W 72-59 94%     1 - 0 +1.5 -2.4 +5.0
  Nov 10, 2018 298   Wyoming W 83-64 94%     2 - 0 +8.4 +6.8 +1.7
  Nov 16, 2018 111   Old Dominion W 61-56 59%     3 - 0 +9.1 -0.9 +10.6
  Nov 18, 2018 89   Missouri L 63-69 53%     3 - 1 -0.2 -2.7 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2018 132   Penn W 74-58 65%     4 - 1 +18.6 +5.2 +13.9
  Nov 25, 2018 221   @ Long Beach St. W 75-72 76%     5 - 1 +2.4 +0.8 +1.6
  Dec 01, 2018 148   Missouri St. W 101-77 78%     6 - 1 +22.5 +26.1 -3.9
  Dec 09, 2018 121   @ Saint Louis L 61-65 51%     6 - 2 +2.2 -1.9 +4.0
  Dec 15, 2018 85   Texas A&M L 64-67 53%     6 - 3 +2.9 -3.6 +6.4
  Dec 17, 2018 161   Pepperdine W 82-67 82%     7 - 3 +12.1 +4.8 +6.8
  Dec 21, 2018 142   Kent St. L 63-66 77%     7 - 4 -4.0 -2.8 -1.7
  Dec 29, 2018 305   Central Connecticut St. W 80-59 94%     8 - 4 +9.9 +1.7 +8.4
  Jan 05, 2019 55   @ Oregon W 77-72 33%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +16.2 +7.8 +8.1
  Jan 10, 2019 78   USC W 79-74 62%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +8.5 +5.8 +2.6
  Jan 13, 2019 94   UCLA W 79-66 65%     11 - 4 3 - 0 +15.5 +2.2 +12.3
  Jan 17, 2019 54   @ Arizona St. L 67-70 32%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +8.5 +2.7 +5.7
  Jan 19, 2019 84   @ Arizona L 71-82 42%     11 - 6 3 - 2 -2.3 +7.7 -10.7
  Jan 24, 2019 167   Washington St. W 90-77 82%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +10.0 +16.1 -5.6
  Jan 26, 2019 36   Washington L 69-79 42%     12 - 7 4 - 3 -1.4 +6.7 -8.8
  Jan 31, 2019 66   @ Colorado W 76-74 37%     13 - 7 5 - 3 +11.9 +10.1 +1.9
  Feb 02, 2019 95   @ Utah W 81-72 45%     14 - 7 6 - 3 +16.9 +9.8 +7.4
  Feb 07, 2019 92   Stanford L 60-83 65%     14 - 8 6 - 4 -20.4 -8.9 -12.3
  Feb 09, 2019 257   California W 79-71 91%     15 - 8 7 - 4 -0.3 +2.7 -2.7
  Feb 16, 2019 55   Oregon W 72-57 54%     16 - 8 8 - 4 +20.7 +10.6 +11.3
  Feb 21, 2019 94   @ UCLA L 75-76 44%    
  Feb 23, 2019 78   @ USC L 73-75 40%    
  Feb 28, 2019 84   Arizona W 71-68 63%    
  Mar 03, 2019 54   Arizona St. W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 06, 2019 36   @ Washington L 65-72 23%    
  Mar 09, 2019 167   @ Washington St. W 79-75 64%    
Projected Record 18.9 - 11.1 10.9 - 7.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.4 1st
2nd 0.7 14.7 20.1 7.7 0.8 44.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.6 12.7 1.2 19.5 3rd
4th 0.3 11.1 2.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 2.1 6.2 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 4.6 1.2 5.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.6 0.1 4.0 7th
8th 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.9 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.3 11.4 25.0 30.0 21.5 8.4 1.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 40.1% 0.6    0.2 0.4
13-5 7.8% 0.7    0.1 0.5 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.4% 66.5% 18.9% 47.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 58.8%
13-5 8.4% 36.8% 14.8% 22.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 25.8%
12-6 21.5% 20.1% 12.7% 7.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 17.2 8.4%
11-7 30.0% 11.6% 10.2% 1.4% 11.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 26.6 1.5%
10-8 25.0% 6.6% 6.4% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 23.3 0.2%
9-9 11.4% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 0.0%
8-10 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.8% 9.2% 4.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.1 5.1 1.5 0.1 86.2 5.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 8.6 0.4 6.5 19.9 23.0 21.5 18.0 10.3 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 78.9% 10.5 0.4 3.6 9.2 23.5 30.7 10.4 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 62.3% 11.1 0.3 1.9 15.1 26.3 15.1 3.4 0.3
Lose Out 1.3%