Penn St.
Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#54
Achievement Rating+6.4#105
Pace67.7#239
Improvement+0.2#165

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#133
First Shot+1.2#148
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#155
Layup/Dunks-0.4#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement+0.0#170

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#16
First Shot+5.0#40
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#24
Layups/Dunks+3.4#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#62
Freethrows+1.7#91
Improvement+0.2#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 3.7% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 36.7% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.2% 35.7% 20.7%
Average Seed 8.5 8.2 8.8
.500 or above 40.1% 55.5% 31.0%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 24.3% 16.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.3% 11.9% 17.3%
First Four5.5% 6.8% 4.8%
First Round24.3% 33.5% 19.0%
Second Round13.0% 18.5% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 6.8% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.5% 1.2%
Final Four0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Neutral) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 175   North Florida W 87-72 89%     1 - 0 +11.0 +0.2 +9.0
  Nov 12, 2018 145   Jacksonville St. W 76-61 84%     2 - 0 +13.4 +6.5 +7.5
  Nov 15, 2018 106   @ DePaul L 70-72 56%     2 - 1 +5.6 -5.8 +11.6
  Nov 20, 2018 144   Wright St. W 77-59 77%     3 - 1 +19.5 +7.5 +12.9
  Nov 21, 2018 129   Bradley L 56-59 73%     3 - 2 -0.2 -7.8 +7.3
  Nov 27, 2018 11   Virginia Tech W 63-62 32%     4 - 2 +15.1 +2.5 +12.8
  Dec 01, 2018 30   @ Maryland L 59-66 27%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +8.5 -0.3 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2018 23   Indiana L 62-64 47%     4 - 4 0 - 2 +8.0 -5.4 +13.4
  Dec 08, 2018 166   Colgate W 76-65 88%     5 - 4 +7.6 +0.3 +7.3
  Dec 15, 2018 28   North Carolina St. L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 19, 2018 163   @ Duquesne W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 21, 2018 62   @ Alabama L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 29, 2018 211   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-58 92%    
  Jan 03, 2019 3   @ Michigan L 56-69 12%    
  Jan 06, 2019 13   Wisconsin L 61-64 39%    
  Jan 10, 2019 16   @ Nebraska L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 13, 2019 5   Michigan St. L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 16, 2019 39   Iowa W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 19, 2019 60   @ Minnesota L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 26, 2019 98   Rutgers W 66-59 73%    
  Jan 31, 2019 20   Purdue L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 04, 2019 48   @ Northwestern L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 07, 2019 14   @ Ohio St. L 61-70 22%    
  Feb 12, 2019 3   Michigan L 59-66 27%    
  Feb 16, 2019 20   @ Purdue L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 19, 2019 16   Nebraska L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 23, 2019 91   @ Illinois W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 27, 2019 30   Maryland L 67-68 49%    
  Mar 02, 2019 13   @ Wisconsin L 58-67 21%    
  Mar 06, 2019 98   @ Rutgers W 63-62 53%    
  Mar 10, 2019 91   Illinois W 73-67 72%    
Projected Record 14.6 - 16.4 7.2 - 12.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.3 1.0 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.0 0.2 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.1 4.8 1.0 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 5.1 5.7 1.6 0.1 13.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 5.6 1.9 0.2 14.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.8 8.0 11.5 13.9 14.6 13.6 11.3 8.1 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 66.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 33.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.3% 99.6% 14.2% 85.4% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 0.7% 99.4% 13.4% 86.0% 3.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 1.5% 99.5% 7.6% 91.9% 5.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-8 3.2% 97.4% 4.7% 92.7% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.3%
11-9 5.4% 92.4% 2.8% 89.6% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 92.2%
10-10 8.1% 82.4% 1.9% 80.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 82.0%
9-11 11.3% 52.8% 1.1% 51.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 52.3%
8-12 13.6% 21.1% 0.7% 20.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.8 20.5%
7-13 14.6% 4.7% 0.3% 4.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.9 4.4%
6-14 13.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 0.5%
5-15 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.0%
4-16 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 8.0
3-17 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 4.8
2-18 2.2% 2.2
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 27.0% 1.0% 26.0% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 73.0 26.2%