Portland St.
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#291
Achievement Rating-8.2#285
Pace72.3#97
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#204
First Shot-5.9#321
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#3
Layup/Dunks-6.0#338
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#259
Freethrows+2.8#24
Improvement+3.7#31

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#334
First Shot-4.8#313
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#304
Layups/Dunks-3.0#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#109
Freethrows-3.5#341
Improvement-3.9#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 1.4% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 32.5% 7.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 58.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 55   @ Oregon L 57-84 5%     0 - 1 -15.8 -2.5 -15.7
  Nov 10, 2018 311   UC Riverside W 71-64 66%     1 - 1 -4.5 -12.5 +7.7
  Nov 23, 2018 172   UC Santa Barbara L 69-76 25%     1 - 2 -7.5 -9.7 +2.6
  Nov 28, 2018 92   @ Stanford L 67-79 8%     1 - 3 -3.9 -10.1 +7.8
  Dec 05, 2018 317   Portland W 87-78 69%     2 - 3 -3.6 +6.9 -10.9
  Dec 12, 2018 73   @ BYU L 66-85 7%     2 - 4 -9.5 -10.0 +2.0
  Dec 15, 2018 143   Loyola Marymount L 58-85 27%     2 - 5 -28.0 -13.1 -15.0
  Dec 20, 2018 200   Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 41%     2 - 6 -10.1 -4.3 -5.9
  Dec 31, 2018 183   Northern Colorado L 60-73 38%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -17.1 -9.0 -9.3
  Jan 03, 2019 227   @ Montana St. L 88-98 28%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -11.2 +3.3 -13.6
  Jan 05, 2019 109   @ Montana W 77-74 10%     3 - 8 1 - 2 +10.0 +6.3 +3.7
  Jan 12, 2019 166   Weber St. L 88-95 34%     3 - 9 1 - 3 -10.0 +0.0 -8.9
  Jan 17, 2019 279   @ Southern Utah L 69-83 37%     3 - 10 1 - 4 -17.9 -11.6 -4.9
  Jan 19, 2019 307   @ Northern Arizona L 75-82 44%     3 - 11 1 - 5 -12.7 -10.4 -1.5
  Jan 24, 2019 238   Eastern Washington W 78-65 50%     4 - 11 2 - 5 +5.6 +18.1 -9.5
  Jan 26, 2019 344   Idaho W 69-53 83%     5 - 11 3 - 5 -1.6 -8.6 +8.3
  Jan 31, 2019 166   @ Weber St. W 76-75 18%     6 - 11 4 - 5 +3.5 +5.9 -2.3
  Feb 02, 2019 313   @ Idaho St. L 67-69 46%     6 - 12 4 - 6 -8.2 +0.8 -9.4
  Feb 07, 2019 183   @ Northern Colorado L 62-80 20%     6 - 13 4 - 7 -16.6 -4.6 -13.5
  Feb 11, 2019 264   @ Sacramento St. L 67-78 34%     6 - 14 4 - 8 -14.1 +3.2 -18.7
  Feb 14, 2019 307   Northern Arizona W 103-94 65%     7 - 14 5 - 8 -2.2 +9.4 -12.8
  Feb 16, 2019 279   Southern Utah W 79-77 59%    
  Feb 21, 2019 313   Idaho St. W 80-76 66%    
  Feb 23, 2019 264   Sacramento St. W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 28, 2019 344   @ Idaho W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 238   @ Eastern Washington L 73-79 29%    
  Mar 07, 2019 109   Montana L 72-81 21%    
  Mar 09, 2019 227   Montana St. L 81-82 48%    
Projected Record 10.5 - 17.5 8.5 - 11.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.6 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.0 2.4 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 13.5 8.7 0.5 25.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 13.8 11.2 0.7 27.2 7th
8th 0.2 5.8 9.0 0.9 0.0 15.9 8th
9th 1.6 7.1 2.0 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 1.0 4.4 2.5 0.1 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 1.0 6.1 17.0 27.1 26.5 16.1 5.4 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 5.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.2
10-10 16.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 15.7
9-11 26.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 26.1
8-12 27.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 26.9
7-13 17.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.9
6-14 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
5-15 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 15.4 2.4 58.5 39.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.6%