Purdue Fort Wayne
Summit League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#181
Achievement Rating-0.2#172
Pace77.5#25
Improvement+3.5#46

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#103
First Shot+2.8#93
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#181
Layup/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#45
Freethrows-1.5#278
Improvement+2.4#63

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#279
First Shot-3.5#279
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#231
Layups/Dunks-5.4#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#287
Freethrows+2.7#27
Improvement+1.1#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 13.5% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 97.3% 100.0% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 4.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round10.6% 13.5% 10.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 94   @ UCLA L 71-96 19%     0 - 1 -17.0 -9.3 -3.4
  Nov 11, 2018 41   @ Ohio St. L 61-107 9%     0 - 2 -32.5 -6.9 -22.9
  Nov 16, 2018 72   @ Dayton L 80-91 15%     0 - 3 -1.4 +4.8 -5.5
  Nov 20, 2018 343   South Carolina St. W 72-68 93%     1 - 3 -13.5 -14.0 +0.4
  Nov 23, 2018 174   Samford L 66-74 58%     1 - 4 -11.3 -8.0 -3.5
  Nov 25, 2018 306   @ Cleveland St. W 82-79 67%     2 - 4 -2.7 -4.7 +1.7
  Nov 28, 2018 296   @ Eastern Illinois W 104-60 64%     3 - 4 +39.1 +21.5 +15.2
  Dec 01, 2018 229   UMKC L 73-90 71%     3 - 5 -23.9 -1.2 -23.3
  Dec 05, 2018 126   Akron W 68-65 43%     4 - 5 +3.5 -2.1 +5.5
  Dec 08, 2018 144   @ Miami (OH) L 79-85 29%     4 - 6 -1.5 +8.1 -9.6
  Dec 15, 2018 137   @ Austin Peay L 68-95 28%     4 - 7 -22.1 -6.3 -15.0
  Dec 18, 2018 205   IUPUI W 87-77 66%     5 - 7 +4.6 +5.8 -1.9
  Dec 29, 2018 273   @ North Dakota W 84-73 59%     6 - 7 1 - 0 +7.3 -0.3 +6.1
  Dec 30, 2018 194   @ North Dakota St. W 90-87 42%     7 - 7 2 - 0 +3.7 +11.0 -7.4
  Jan 03, 2019 77   South Dakota St. W 104-88 32%     8 - 7 3 - 0 +19.6 +15.7 +1.6
  Jan 10, 2019 280   Oral Roberts W 94-69 78%     9 - 7 4 - 0 +15.5 +16.7 -0.4
  Jan 13, 2019 231   @ South Dakota L 73-87 51%     9 - 8 4 - 1 -15.6 -3.6 -11.2
  Jan 19, 2019 285   @ Western Illinois L 58-87 61%     9 - 9 4 - 2 -33.2 -14.8 -19.2
  Jan 24, 2019 171   Nebraska Omaha L 79-85 57%     9 - 10 4 - 3 -9.2 -9.9 +1.4
  Jan 26, 2019 297   Denver W 91-81 81%     10 - 10 5 - 3 -0.5 +10.6 -11.1
  Jan 30, 2019 231   South Dakota W 102-71 72%     11 - 10 6 - 3 +23.8 +16.4 +4.3
  Feb 02, 2019 280   @ Oral Roberts W 82-81 60%     12 - 10 7 - 3 -2.9 +5.2 -8.1
  Feb 07, 2019 285   Western Illinois W 79-64 79%     13 - 10 8 - 3 +5.2 +2.3 +3.1
  Feb 14, 2019 297   @ Denver W 94-81 64%     14 - 10 9 - 3 +8.0 +14.9 -7.1
  Feb 16, 2019 171   @ Nebraska Omaha L 71-74 36%     14 - 11 9 - 4 -0.6 -4.8 +4.1
  Feb 21, 2019 77   @ South Dakota St. L 80-90 16%    
  Feb 28, 2019 273   North Dakota W 84-76 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 194   North Dakota St. W 82-78 64%    
Projected Record 15.6 - 12.4 10.6 - 5.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.6 1st
2nd 0.5 6.7 4.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 1.6 28.8 41.3 3.8 75.4 3rd
4th 5.8 7.0 12.8 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 7.4 36.2 48.0 8.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 7.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.4
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 8.3% 14.9% 14.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 7.1
11-5 48.0% 11.7% 11.7% 15.1 0.0 0.4 4.0 1.2 42.4
10-6 36.2% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.1 2.0 1.2 32.9
9-7 7.4% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 6.9
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.9 2.7 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.5 0.1 2.3 43.1 52.5 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%
Lose Out 2.7%