Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#80
Achievement Rating+9.2#74
Pace67.6#244
Improvement+2.3#43

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#195
First Shot-2.1#242
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#91
Layup/Dunks-0.4#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#333
Freethrows+3.4#35
Improvement-1.2#273

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#24
First Shot+6.7#23
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#147
Layups/Dunks+0.4#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#10
Freethrows-1.5#262
Improvement+3.4#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.5% 33.8% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.9% 18.3% 6.4%
Average Seed 10.5 10.1 11.3
.500 or above 95.9% 98.3% 92.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 92.1% 86.7%
Conference Champion 23.4% 26.8% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four4.2% 5.3% 2.8%
First Round25.1% 30.7% 17.7%
Second Round8.4% 10.9% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.7% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 273   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-65 92%     1 - 0 +0.8 -1.8 +2.5
  Nov 10, 2018 206   Troy W 62-58 87%     2 - 0 -1.7 -9.2 +7.9
  Nov 13, 2018 329   North Alabama W 69-58 96%     3 - 0 -3.3 -8.5 +5.2
  Nov 17, 2018 60   @ Seton Hall W 66-64 31%     4 - 0 +13.4 -1.3 +14.7
  Nov 21, 2018 119   Pittsburgh L 73-75 60%     4 - 1 +1.7 +4.5 -2.8
  Nov 24, 2018 278   Central Arkansas W 73-61 92%     5 - 1 +2.5 -6.9 +9.1
  Dec 01, 2018 37   Butler W 64-52 41%     6 - 1 +20.6 -4.6 +25.4
  Dec 05, 2018 103   @ Southern Illinois L 56-61 44%     6 - 2 +3.0 -12.5 +15.7
  Dec 09, 2018 64   Oregon St. W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 16, 2018 33   @ Houston L 57-66 21%    
  Dec 19, 2018 314   NC Central W 72-54 96%    
  Dec 22, 2018 15   Florida St. L 65-73 23%    
  Dec 30, 2018 178   Appalachian St. W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 06, 2019 113   Rhode Island W 66-61 68%    
  Jan 09, 2019 139   Massachusetts W 74-67 76%    
  Jan 12, 2019 258   @ La Salle W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 15, 2019 239   @ Fordham W 66-58 77%    
  Jan 18, 2019 104   Saint Joseph's W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 23, 2019 160   @ Duquesne W 68-65 62%    
  Jan 26, 2019 79   Davidson W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 30, 2019 172   Richmond W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 02, 2019 113   @ Rhode Island L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 05, 2019 69   Dayton W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 08, 2019 104   @ Saint Joseph's L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 13, 2019 279   @ George Washington W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 16, 2019 258   La Salle W 80-65 91%    
  Feb 23, 2019 69   @ Dayton L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 26, 2019 88   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-63 42%    
  Mar 02, 2019 171   George Mason W 72-62 81%    
  Mar 06, 2019 160   Duquesne W 71-62 79%    
  Mar 09, 2019 151   @ St. Bonaventure W 65-62 59%    
Projected Record 20.7 - 10.3 11.9 - 6.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.1 7.1 4.7 2.0 0.4 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.9 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.4 4.3 0.9 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.3 0.7 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.6 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.7 10.7 13.4 15.0 14.5 12.2 8.9 4.9 2.0 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.9% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 95.9% 4.7    4.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 80.2% 7.1    4.8 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 50.5% 6.1    2.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.6% 2.6    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 14.3 6.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 92.3% 47.2% 45.1% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.5%
17-1 2.0% 84.0% 41.7% 42.3% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 72.6%
16-2 4.9% 74.1% 37.1% 37.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 58.8%
15-3 8.9% 61.0% 30.7% 30.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.5 43.6%
14-4 12.2% 45.8% 25.3% 20.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.6 27.4%
13-5 14.5% 31.8% 20.7% 11.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.9 14.0%
12-6 15.0% 20.4% 15.3% 5.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.9 6.1%
11-7 13.4% 12.3% 10.5% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.7 2.0%
10-8 10.7% 7.4% 6.9% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.6%
9-9 7.7% 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.1%
8-10 5.0% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.0%
7-11 2.9% 2.2% 2.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 27.5% 16.7% 10.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.8 4.4 7.0 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 72.5 12.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 8.3 20.8 37.5 12.5 16.7 4.2