Sam Houston St.
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#173
Achievement Rating+1.7#147
Pace66.6#244
Improvement+5.6#13

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#201
First Shot+1.4#141
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#316
Layup/Dunks-3.4#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#27
Freethrows-2.1#308
Improvement+2.9#46

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#167
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#50
Layups/Dunks+3.5#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#236
Freethrows-3.1#335
Improvement+2.7#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.1% 38.6% 33.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 96.7% 98.0% 86.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 1.5%
First Round37.8% 38.4% 33.2%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 136   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-76 30%     0 - 1 -2.1 -0.6 -1.5
  Nov 14, 2018 30   @ Clemson L 59-74 8%     0 - 2 +0.1 +3.0 -4.6
  Nov 16, 2018 113   @ Georgia L 64-75 24%     0 - 3 -4.2 -1.9 -3.0
  Nov 19, 2018 333   Jackson St. W 75-60 86%     1 - 3 +3.0 -2.9 +5.1
  Nov 20, 2018 93   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-77 21%     1 - 4 -5.9 +1.8 -9.5
  Nov 28, 2018 147   Central Michigan L 65-81 53%     1 - 5 -17.4 -15.8 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2018 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 52-79 48%     1 - 6 -26.9 -16.5 -12.2
  Dec 08, 2018 178   @ Colorado St. L 65-71 42%     1 - 7 -4.4 -8.9 +4.5
  Dec 18, 2018 320   Alabama St. W 78-57 87%     2 - 7 +8.2 -1.7 +9.5
  Dec 22, 2018 114   @ Utah Valley L 79-85 24%     2 - 8 +0.7 +8.4 -7.6
  Jan 05, 2019 169   Abilene Christian W 71-68 60%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -0.1 +1.5 -1.4
  Jan 09, 2019 302   @ Central Arkansas W 78-69 68%     4 - 8 2 - 0 +3.7 -0.6 +4.0
  Jan 12, 2019 339   Incarnate Word W 66-52 92%     5 - 8 3 - 0 -2.3 -14.2 +12.6
  Jan 16, 2019 282   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-50 80%     6 - 8 4 - 0 +12.5 -2.3 +15.2
  Jan 19, 2019 288   @ Houston Baptist W 71-65 65%     7 - 8 5 - 0 +1.6 -10.0 +11.1
  Jan 23, 2019 331   @ Northwestern St. W 78-64 78%     8 - 8 6 - 0 +5.3 +9.8 -3.3
  Jan 26, 2019 245   Lamar W 69-59 75%     9 - 8 7 - 0 +2.3 -1.2 +4.5
  Jan 30, 2019 242   @ SE Louisiana W 62-52 56%     10 - 8 8 - 0 +8.0 -4.6 +13.4
  Feb 02, 2019 274   Stephen F. Austin W 94-72 80%     11 - 8 9 - 0 +12.8 +14.8 -2.9
  Feb 06, 2019 324   McNeese St. W 77-62 88%     12 - 8 10 - 0 +1.6 -2.9 +4.9
  Feb 09, 2019 169   @ Abilene Christian W 90-85 39%     13 - 8 11 - 0 +7.5 +7.0 -0.2
  Feb 13, 2019 282   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-69 63%     14 - 8 12 - 0 -3.0 +11.5 -14.3
  Feb 16, 2019 245   @ Lamar L 72-75 56%     14 - 9 12 - 1 -5.1 -5.2 +0.1
  Feb 20, 2019 322   Nicholls St. W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 23, 2019 288   Houston Baptist W 80-71 82%    
  Feb 27, 2019 269   @ New Orleans W 67-64 60%    
  Mar 06, 2019 302   Central Arkansas W 79-69 84%    
  Mar 09, 2019 274   @ Stephen F. Austin W 71-68 61%    
Projected Record 17.8 - 10.2 15.8 - 2.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 6.5 26.2 39.3 24.2 96.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.2 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.5 8.7 26.2 39.3 24.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 24.2    24.2
16-2 100.0% 39.3    39.3
15-3 100.0% 26.2    19.4 6.8
14-4 74.7% 6.5    2.6 3.6 0.3
13-5 29.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 96.7% 96.7 85.6 10.6 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 24.2% 43.0% 43.0% 14.4 0.0 0.6 5.4 4.2 0.1 13.8
16-2 39.3% 39.1% 39.1% 15.1 0.0 1.6 11.3 2.5 23.9
15-3 26.2% 35.0% 35.0% 15.3 0.0 0.3 5.8 3.1 17.0
14-4 8.7% 31.4% 31.4% 15.5 0.0 1.3 1.4 6.0
13-5 1.5% 25.4% 25.4% 15.7 0.1 0.3 1.1
12-6 0.1% 21.2% 21.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.1% 38.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.6 7.2 22.8 7.4 61.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 100.0% 14.4 0.0 5.9 52.0 40.8 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.6%
Lose Out 0.0%