San Diego St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#114
Achievement Rating+3.6#127
Pace67.0#235
Improvement-1.3#248

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#108
First Shot+1.7#134
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#126
Layup/Dunks-6.1#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#208
Freethrows+2.8#29
Improvement-3.6#316

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#129
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#239
Layups/Dunks+4.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#284
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement+2.3#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.1% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.4% 4.1% 2.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-60 95%     1 - 0 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Nov 14, 2018 230   Texas Southern W 103-64 85%     2 - 0 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Nov 19, 2018 1   Duke L 64-90 4%     2 - 1 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Nov 20, 2018 82   Xavier W 79-74 42%     3 - 1 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Nov 21, 2018 12   Iowa St. L 57-87 13%     3 - 2 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Nov 27, 2018 331   Jackson St. W 87-44 94%     4 - 2 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Dec 01, 2018 158   @ Illinois St. W 75-65 54%     5 - 2 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Dec 05, 2018 102   San Diego L 61-73 57%     5 - 3 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Dec 08, 2018 257   @ California L 83-89 74%     5 - 4 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Dec 22, 2018 75   BYU W 90-81 51%     6 - 4 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Dec 29, 2018 155   Brown L 61-82 72%     6 - 5 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 01, 2019 272   Cal St. Northridge W 65-60 88%     7 - 5 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 05, 2019 122   @ Boise St. L 64-88 42%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 08, 2019 296   Wyoming W 84-54 90%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 12, 2019 237   @ Air Force L 48-62 71%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 15, 2019 152   New Mexico W 97-77 71%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 22, 2019 61   @ Fresno St. L 62-66 27%     9 - 8 2 - 3 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 26, 2019 151   UNLV W 94-77 71%     10 - 8 3 - 3 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Jan 30, 2019 237   Air Force W 66-51 85%     11 - 8 4 - 3 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Feb 02, 2019 339   @ San Jose St. W 67-56 91%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Feb 05, 2019 152   @ New Mexico L 70-83 51%     12 - 9 5 - 4 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Feb 09, 2019 50   Utah St. W 68-63 40%     13 - 9 6 - 4 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Feb 12, 2019 180   @ Colorado St. W 71-60 59%     14 - 9 7 - 4 +7.6 +16.4 -9.2
  Feb 16, 2019 122   Boise St. W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 20, 2019 13   Nevada L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 23, 2019 151   @ UNLV W 74-73 49%    
  Feb 26, 2019 50   @ Utah St. L 68-76 22%    
  Mar 02, 2019 339   San Jose St. W 79-59 97%    
  Mar 06, 2019 61   Fresno St. L 69-70 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 13   @ Nevada L 66-81 8%    
Projected Record 17.1 - 12.9 10.1 - 7.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.2 4.4 0.3 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.9 17.2 12.5 1.6 36.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 7.3 17.4 9.6 0.6 35.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 6.5 2.4 12.5 5th
6th 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.7 4.8 14.1 24.7 28.4 19.4 7.0 0.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 58.8% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1
15-3 14.7% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1
14-4 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 9.1% 8.3% 0.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8%
15-3 7.0% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.6 0.0%
14-4 19.4% 4.7% 4.7% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 18.5
13-5 28.4% 3.5% 3.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 27.4
12-6 24.7% 2.5% 2.5% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 24.1
11-7 14.1% 1.9% 1.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.9
10-8 4.8% 1.1% 1.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
9-9 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 14.0 0.0 0.7
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.5% 12.3% 12.5 0.7 5.2 5.6 0.8 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.3%