San Diego St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#69
Achievement Rating+4.1#127
Pace69.1#202
Improvement-3.2#341

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#40
First Shot+5.4#40
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#147
Layup/Dunks-2.7#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#143
Freethrows+4.6#12
Improvement-0.8#240

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#133
First Shot+0.5#160
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#128
Layups/Dunks+4.6#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#272
Freethrows-2.3#299
Improvement-2.4#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 14.8% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.3% 7.6% 1.9%
Average Seed 11.3 11.0 12.1
.500 or above 93.7% 96.9% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.1% 90.4% 84.8%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.2% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four2.9% 4.0% 1.3%
First Round10.3% 12.8% 6.6%
Second Round3.6% 4.8% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 322   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-60 96%     1 - 0 +2.5 -1.7 +4.4
  Nov 14, 2018 220   Texas Southern W 103-64 89%     2 - 0 +32.5 +14.2 +13.7
  Nov 19, 2018 1   Duke L 64-90 7%     2 - 1 -2.8 -1.7 -0.2
  Nov 20, 2018 57   Xavier W 79-74 43%     3 - 1 +13.8 +15.7 -1.5
  Nov 21, 2018 21   Iowa St. L 57-87 27%     3 - 2 -16.7 -2.7 -18.0
  Nov 27, 2018 336   Jackson St. W 87-44 97%     4 - 2 +27.4 +0.9 +21.7
  Dec 01, 2018 150   @ Illinois St. W 75-65 63%     5 - 2 +13.7 +3.7 +10.1
  Dec 05, 2018 77   San Diego L 61-73 63%     5 - 3 -8.4 -5.7 -3.6
  Dec 08, 2018 179   @ California L 83-89 69%     5 - 4 -4.2 +19.0 -24.0
  Dec 22, 2018 65   BYU W 81-78 59%    
  Dec 29, 2018 178   Brown W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 01, 2019 324   Cal St. Northridge W 90-69 97%    
  Jan 05, 2019 128   @ Boise St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 08, 2019 221   Wyoming W 84-70 89%    
  Jan 12, 2019 243   @ Air Force W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 15, 2019 146   New Mexico W 88-79 79%    
  Jan 22, 2019 61   @ Fresno St. L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 26, 2019 136   UNLV W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 30, 2019 243   Air Force W 78-63 91%    
  Feb 02, 2019 325   @ San Jose St. W 78-63 91%    
  Feb 05, 2019 146   @ New Mexico W 85-82 60%    
  Feb 09, 2019 50   Utah St. W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 12, 2019 208   @ Colorado St. W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 16, 2019 128   Boise St. W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 20, 2019 10   Nevada L 75-83 25%    
  Feb 23, 2019 136   @ UNLV W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 26, 2019 50   @ Utah St. L 73-79 31%    
  Mar 02, 2019 325   San Jose St. W 81-60 97%    
  Mar 06, 2019 61   Fresno St. W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 09, 2019 10   @ Nevada L 72-86 11%    
Projected Record 18.7 - 11.3 11.3 - 6.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.1 6.9 3.3 0.5 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 8.8 6.8 1.8 0.1 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.7 8.4 5.0 0.8 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 6.2 10.1 13.6 16.3 16.5 13.9 9.6 5.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-2 74.7% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 35.8% 1.9    0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 9.8% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 97.6% 37.3% 60.2% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.2%
17-1 0.6% 79.7% 28.2% 51.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 71.7%
16-2 2.1% 63.3% 22.9% 40.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 52.3%
15-3 5.4% 44.6% 17.0% 27.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 33.2%
14-4 9.6% 26.6% 13.7% 12.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.0 15.0%
13-5 13.9% 14.7% 9.5% 5.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.8 5.7%
12-6 16.5% 8.0% 6.6% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 15.2 1.5%
11-7 16.3% 4.8% 4.5% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 15.5 0.3%
10-8 13.6% 3.3% 3.2% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.1%
9-9 10.1% 2.1% 2.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8
8-10 6.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
7-11 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.7% 6.8% 4.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.4 3.0 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 88.3 5.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.2 18.2 9.1 31.8 27.3 9.1 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 92.0% 6.4 16.0 12.0 20.0 20.0 12.0 12.0