San Francisco
West Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#61
Achievement Rating+10.1#56
Pace66.0#260
Improvement-7.2#348

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#59
First Shot+2.4#108
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#63
Layup/Dunks+4.8#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#146
Freethrows-0.6#227
Improvement-0.2#199

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#75
First Shot+3.7#62
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#197
Layups/Dunks+3.1#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#29
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement-7.1#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 27.7% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.0% 25.0% 9.4%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.5% 18.6% 7.9%
First Round11.7% 17.4% 7.4%
Second Round3.2% 5.1% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 207   @ UC Davis W 76-42 77%     1 - 0 +34.0 +6.8 +27.9
  Nov 10, 2018 314   Maine W 93-50 96%     2 - 0 +30.9 +23.3 +11.2
  Nov 18, 2018 270   LIU Brooklyn W 84-52 90%     3 - 0 +25.7 +5.0 +19.7
  Nov 21, 2018 117   Harvard W 61-57 74%     4 - 0 +5.1 -12.1 +17.0
  Nov 24, 2018 203   Dartmouth W 84-65 88%     5 - 0 +13.8 +5.5 +8.2
  Nov 30, 2018 274   Stephen F. Austin W 76-58 90%     6 - 0 +11.6 +3.1 +8.8
  Dec 01, 2018 28   Buffalo L 81-85 31%     6 - 1 +8.9 +6.4 +2.9
  Dec 05, 2018 257   @ California W 79-60 84%     7 - 1 +16.2 +9.3 +8.7
  Dec 13, 2018 238   Eastern Washington W 85-63 91%     8 - 1 +14.6 +10.5 +4.9
  Dec 16, 2018 159   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-54 83%     9 - 1 +11.4 +0.4 +11.7
  Dec 19, 2018 307   Northern Arizona W 76-60 95%     10 - 1 +4.8 +0.8 +5.1
  Dec 22, 2018 92   Stanford W 74-65 69%     11 - 1 +11.6 +2.4 +9.1
  Dec 29, 2018 172   @ UC Santa Barbara L 71-73 70%     11 - 2 +0.3 +9.6 -9.6
  Jan 03, 2019 53   St. Mary's W 76-72 55%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +10.3 +3.3 +7.1
  Jan 05, 2019 161   @ Pepperdine W 72-69 69%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +5.6 -2.2 +7.8
  Jan 12, 2019 2   Gonzaga L 83-96 11%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +8.3 +17.2 -8.9
  Jan 17, 2019 187   @ Pacific W 53-52 73%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +2.2 -9.8 +12.2
  Jan 19, 2019 73   BYU W 82-63 64%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +22.9 +14.3 +9.9
  Jan 24, 2019 317   Portland W 83-61 96%     16 - 3 5 - 1 +9.4 +10.4 +0.1
  Jan 26, 2019 103   @ San Diego L 63-67 51%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +3.5 -4.0 +7.4
  Feb 02, 2019 53   @ St. Mary's L 80-86 34%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +5.9 +14.9 -9.4
  Feb 07, 2019 2   @ Gonzaga L 62-92 5%     16 - 6 5 - 4 -3.2 -4.7 +3.3
  Feb 09, 2019 189   Santa Clara W 78-72 87%     17 - 6 6 - 4 +1.5 +5.0 -3.5
  Feb 14, 2019 161   Pepperdine W 89-77 84%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +9.1 +15.1 -5.9
  Feb 16, 2019 317   @ Portland W 68-63 91%     19 - 6 8 - 4 -2.1 -1.6 -0.1
  Feb 21, 2019 73   @ BYU L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 23, 2019 189   @ Santa Clara W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 28, 2019 103   San Diego W 71-65 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 143   Loyola Marymount W 68-59 80%    
Projected Record 21.7 - 7.3 10.7 - 5.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.0 22.3 18.9 42.3 2nd
3rd 1.1 15.4 17.2 33.6 3rd
4th 0.9 8.6 13.3 1.0 23.7 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.2 9.6 29.7 40.6 18.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 18.9% 43.0% 4.5% 38.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.8 40.3%
11-5 40.6% 19.7% 3.5% 16.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.5 1.1 0.0 32.6 16.8%
10-6 29.7% 7.7% 2.5% 5.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 27.4 5.3%
9-7 9.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4 1.0%
8-8 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 18.6% 3.2% 15.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.9 6.4 7.5 2.2 0.1 81.4 16.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 9.9 0.9 4.6 13.1 12.5 32.4 31.0 5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.3% 52.2% 11.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 7.7 21.9 17.5 3.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.4% 35.3% 11.5 0.0 0.5 3.5 12.6 15.2 3.2 0.3
Lose Out 0.6%