South Alabama
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#220
Achievement Rating-5.6#247
Pace67.6#220
Improvement+1.2#132

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#226
First Shot+0.4#169
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#310
Layup/Dunks+2.1#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement+2.4#65

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#222
First Shot-0.9#200
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#267
Layups/Dunks-1.1#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
Freethrows-1.6#276
Improvement-1.2#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.0% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 3.0% 6.3% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 17.2% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.0% 4.4% 40.1%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 14   @ Auburn L 58-101 3%     0 - 1 -24.6 -9.3 -13.7
  Nov 16, 2018 292   Chattanooga W 73-54 74%     1 - 1 +8.9 -8.0 +16.5
  Nov 17, 2018 248   Jacksonville L 48-71 67%     1 - 2 -30.9 -28.2 -2.5
  Nov 19, 2018 315   Southeast Missouri St. W 79-58 80%     2 - 2 +8.7 +0.7 +8.1
  Nov 23, 2018 85   @ Texas A&M L 62-74 13%     2 - 3 -3.3 -0.8 -3.5
  Nov 28, 2018 127   @ Southern Miss L 67-71 19%     2 - 4 +1.9 +3.6 -2.0
  Dec 01, 2018 325   Florida A&M W 66-57 83%     3 - 4 -4.5 -5.1 +1.2
  Dec 05, 2018 269   @ New Orleans L 60-71 50%     3 - 5 -14.5 -8.4 -6.5
  Dec 08, 2018 290   Tulane W 81-60 74%     4 - 5 +11.0 +7.4 +4.1
  Dec 19, 2018 346   Alabama A&M W 79-67 91%     5 - 5 -5.8 -1.3 -4.8
  Dec 29, 2018 179   Richmond L 82-91 52%     5 - 6 -12.9 +6.4 -19.5
  Jan 03, 2019 191   Appalachian St. W 79-73 55%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +1.4 -3.1 +4.1
  Jan 05, 2019 163   Coastal Carolina W 84-77 48%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +4.1 -4.6 +7.5
  Jan 10, 2019 259   @ Arkansas St. L 65-66 48%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -3.9 -8.4 +4.5
  Jan 12, 2019 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 62-91 37%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -28.9 -12.2 -15.7
  Jan 17, 2019 131   Georgia St. L 66-69 37%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -3.0 -9.9 +7.0
  Jan 19, 2019 128   Georgia Southern L 86-88 36%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -1.7 +1.9 -3.4
  Jan 24, 2019 185   @ Louisiana L 84-88 33%     7 - 11 2 - 5 -2.8 +6.6 -9.3
  Jan 26, 2019 157   @ Louisiana Monroe W 78-72 27%     8 - 11 3 - 5 +9.1 +7.7 +1.8
  Feb 02, 2019 233   Troy W 81-75 65%     9 - 11 4 - 5 -1.2 +7.6 -8.4
  Feb 07, 2019 259   Arkansas St. W 70-62 69%     10 - 11 5 - 5 -0.4 +1.3 -0.6
  Feb 09, 2019 206   Arkansas Little Rock L 68-73 58%     10 - 12 5 - 6 -10.4 -9.8 -0.4
  Feb 13, 2019 128   @ Georgia Southern L 65-75 19%     10 - 13 5 - 7 -4.2 -4.2 -0.2
  Feb 15, 2019 131   @ Georgia St. L 81-90 20%     10 - 14 5 - 8 -3.5 +2.2 -4.8
  Feb 23, 2019 233   @ Troy L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 28, 2019 175   Texas Arlington L 66-67 51%    
  Mar 02, 2019 124   Texas St. L 64-68 36%    
  Mar 07, 2019 163   @ Coastal Carolina L 68-74 28%    
  Mar 09, 2019 191   @ Appalachian St. L 75-79 33%    
Projected Record 11.9 - 17.1 6.9 - 11.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 0.4 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 4.0 3.3 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 9.9 1.1 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.6 13.6 6.0 0.1 20.3 8th
9th 5.0 13.0 0.6 18.6 9th
10th 0.5 12.5 3.7 0.0 16.7 10th
11th 3.6 8.2 0.2 12.0 11th
12th 6.0 1.5 0.0 7.5 12th
Total 10.1 27.8 32.8 20.9 7.3 1.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.1% 5.9% 5.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
9-9 7.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
8-10 20.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 20.5
7-11 32.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 32.4
6-12 27.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 27.5
5-13 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.9 22.2 69.8 7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 7.0%