South Florida
American Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#118
Achievement Rating+5.9#96
Pace68.5#191
Improvement+1.7#102

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#225
First Shot-4.2#292
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#28
Layup/Dunks+1.1#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#303
Freethrows+2.4#35
Improvement+1.7#99

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#43
First Shot+3.2#74
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#14
Layups/Dunks+3.2#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#86
Freethrows-4.2#349
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.7% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 11.6 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.9% 96.6% 71.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round1.3% 2.6% 1.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 9.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 346   Alabama A&M W 80-63 97%     1 - 0 -0.8 -0.1 -1.1
  Nov 12, 2018 137   Austin Peay W 74-70 67%     2 - 0 +3.3 -10.4 +13.3
  Nov 16, 2018 209   Ohio W 73-46 74%     3 - 0 +24.2 -3.4 +25.3
  Nov 18, 2018 68   Georgetown L 73-76 37%     3 - 1 +4.1 -5.4 +9.9
  Nov 21, 2018 325   Florida A&M W 69-59 94%     4 - 1 -3.5 -1.4 -1.4
  Nov 24, 2018 278   The Citadel L 81-84 89%     4 - 2 -12.4 -3.8 -8.5
  Nov 28, 2018 335   Stetson W 75-71 95%     5 - 2 -11.1 -4.0 -7.0
  Nov 30, 2018 153   Colgate W 73-63 72%     6 - 2 +7.8 -2.0 +10.0
  Dec 15, 2018 191   Appalachian St. W 76-69 79%     7 - 2 +2.4 -5.0 +7.1
  Dec 18, 2018 223   @ Florida International W 82-73 67%     8 - 2 +8.1 -5.1 +11.7
  Dec 21, 2018 349   Alcorn St. W 83-44 97%     9 - 2 +19.5 +5.9 +15.1
  Dec 29, 2018 250   Fairleigh Dickinson W 60-54 86%     10 - 2 -2.1 -14.1 +12.6
  Jan 02, 2019 83   Connecticut W 76-68 52%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +11.3 +0.3 +10.5
  Jan 05, 2019 96   @ Tulsa L 75-78 35%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +4.8 +4.0 +0.9
  Jan 09, 2019 290   Tulane W 66-48 90%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +8.0 -11.1 +18.7
  Jan 12, 2019 70   @ Temple L 80-82 28%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +7.8 +0.2 +7.9
  Jan 15, 2019 31   @ Cincinnati L 74-82 15%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +7.1 +9.3 -2.3
  Jan 19, 2019 20   Houston L 60-69 21%     12 - 6 2 - 4 +3.2 -3.7 +6.6
  Jan 22, 2019 112   Wichita St. W 54-41 60%     13 - 6 3 - 4 +14.3 -14.6 +29.6
  Jan 26, 2019 267   @ East Carolina W 77-57 75%     14 - 6 4 - 4 +16.8 +10.4 +7.8
  Feb 02, 2019 76   Memphis W 84-78 50%     15 - 6 5 - 4 +9.7 -0.8 +9.6
  Feb 07, 2019 104   @ SMU W 67-66 36%     16 - 6 6 - 4 +8.4 +6.2 +2.5
  Feb 10, 2019 267   East Carolina W 72-68 88%     17 - 6 7 - 4 -4.7 -0.5 -4.1
  Feb 13, 2019 52   @ Central Florida L 65-78 22%     17 - 7 7 - 5 -1.1 +4.3 -6.5
  Feb 16, 2019 70   Temple L 69-70 48%     17 - 8 7 - 6 +3.2 -6.3 +9.7
  Feb 23, 2019 20   @ Houston L 58-72 9%    
  Feb 27, 2019 52   Central Florida L 63-66 41%    
  Mar 03, 2019 83   @ Connecticut L 68-73 31%    
  Mar 06, 2019 290   @ Tulane W 71-63 77%    
  Mar 10, 2019 104   SMU W 69-67 58%    
Projected Record 19.2 - 10.8 9.2 - 8.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 0.5 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 4.5 5.1 0.3 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 5.2 16.0 2.1 0.0 23.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 21.6 6.7 0.0 30.7 6th
7th 0.3 10.3 9.8 0.1 20.5 7th
8th 1.8 7.9 0.6 10.3 8th
9th 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.3 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 4.4 21.7 37.3 27.3 8.5 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.8% 8.4% 5.4% 3.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.2%
11-7 8.5% 3.0% 2.7% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.2%
10-8 27.3% 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 26.7 0.0%
9-9 37.3% 0.9% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 37.0
8-10 21.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.6
7-11 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.5 4.8 4.8 38.1 45.2 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 14.6% 11.6 1.1 6.7 3.4 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 2.8% 12.3 0.4 1.6 0.4 0.4
Lose Out 2.7%