Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#122
Achievement Rating+4.7#122
Pace65.7#282
Improvement-0.7#233

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#144
First Shot+2.7#106
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#273
Layup/Dunks+2.2#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#133
Freethrows-0.9#218
Improvement+2.1#35

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#91
First Shot+3.9#56
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#255
Layups/Dunks+2.2#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#329
Freethrows+5.5#5
Improvement-2.8#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 18.9% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 89.0% 91.8% 79.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 82.3% 76.3%
Conference Champion 23.0% 24.6% 17.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.2% 3.5%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round17.8% 18.5% 15.3%
Second Round3.1% 3.3% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 17   @ Kentucky L 59-71 11%     0 - 1 +4.9 -6.6 +11.1
  Nov 12, 2018 27   Buffalo L 53-62 28%     0 - 2 +0.6 -12.7 +12.7
  Nov 17, 2018 324   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78-48 94%     1 - 2 +16.4 +0.5 +16.2
  Nov 19, 2018 293   Howard W 83-69 90%     2 - 2 +3.7 -0.1 +3.2
  Nov 22, 2018 136   Massachusetts L 62-84 55%     2 - 3 -19.8 -12.0 -7.3
  Nov 23, 2018 123   Tulsa W 79-69 51%     3 - 3 +13.3 +9.7 +3.8
  Nov 27, 2018 211   @ Colorado St. W 82-67 64%     4 - 3 +15.0 +17.5 -0.4
  Dec 01, 2018 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-61 86%     5 - 3 +12.8 +4.6 +8.3
  Dec 05, 2018 82   Saint Louis W 61-56 50%     6 - 3 +8.5 -7.6 +15.9
  Dec 08, 2018 280   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 83-73 76%     7 - 3 +6.3 +14.1 -7.2
  Dec 12, 2018 66   Murray St. L 52-80 46%     7 - 4 -23.5 -13.9 -10.9
  Dec 15, 2018 27   @ Buffalo L 65-73 13%     7 - 5 +7.6 +0.0 +7.5
  Dec 22, 2018 184   Winthrop W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 02, 2019 200   Missouri St. W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 05, 2019 178   @ Northern Iowa W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 08, 2019 151   @ Drake L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 12, 2019 157   Valparaiso W 70-64 72%    
  Jan 15, 2019 152   @ Illinois St. L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 20, 2019 144   Bradley W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 23, 2019 178   Northern Iowa W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 27, 2019 99   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-66 33%    
  Jan 30, 2019 139   Indiana St. W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 02, 2019 144   @ Bradley L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 06, 2019 200   @ Missouri St. W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 09, 2019 176   Evansville W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 12, 2019 151   Drake W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 16, 2019 139   @ Indiana St. L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 20, 2019 157   @ Valparaiso W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 24, 2019 99   Loyola Chicago W 64-63 56%    
  Feb 27, 2019 176   @ Evansville W 72-70 56%    
  Mar 02, 2019 152   Illinois St. W 73-67 71%    
Projected Record 18.6 - 12.4 10.8 - 7.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.7 6.3 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 23.0 1st
2nd 0.8 4.5 7.3 5.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.4 6.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.4 2.3 0.2 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.5 0.3 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.4 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.1 5.1 8.7 11.7 13.5 14.4 14.0 11.7 8.1 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 99.1% 2.2    2.2 0.1
15-3 94.2% 4.2    3.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 77.8% 6.3    4.4 1.8 0.1
13-5 48.9% 5.7    2.6 2.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 21.9% 3.1    0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2
11-7 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.0% 23.0 14.5 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.7% 59.5% 40.5% 18.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 31.8%
16-2 2.2% 46.8% 40.5% 6.3% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 10.6%
15-3 4.5% 40.0% 36.7% 3.3% 12.2 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.7 5.3%
14-4 8.1% 31.8% 30.4% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 2.0%
13-5 11.7% 24.3% 23.7% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 8.9 0.8%
12-6 14.0% 21.0% 20.9% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 11.1 0.2%
11-7 14.4% 16.6% 16.4% 0.1% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 12.0 0.2%
10-8 13.5% 13.3% 13.3% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 11.7
9-9 11.7% 10.3% 10.3% 14.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 10.5
8-10 8.7% 7.5% 7.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.1
7-11 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.8
6-12 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.0
5-13 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 17.5% 0.7% 13.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 6.2 5.0 1.7 0.3 81.9 0.8%