Southern Miss
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#127
Achievement Rating+4.1#116
Pace63.9#311
Improvement+4.1#34

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#134
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#258
Layup/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#108
Freethrows-3.9#342
Improvement+5.1#15

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#125
First Shot+1.9#111
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#201
Layups/Dunks+5.6#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#340
Freethrows+1.8#66
Improvement-1.1#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 29.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.0% 29.5% 0.0%
Second Round1.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 104   @ SMU W 74-64 34%     1 - 0 +17.4 +13.3 +5.8
  Nov 15, 2018 233   @ Troy W 81-66 68%     2 - 0 +13.3 +13.6 +1.5
  Nov 20, 2018 212   North Florida L 48-64 73%     2 - 1 -19.2 -30.7 +12.6
  Nov 21, 2018 289   Western Carolina W 68-63 84%     3 - 1 -2.2 -9.5 +7.3
  Nov 28, 2018 220   South Alabama W 71-67 81%     4 - 1 -2.1 +1.6 -3.4
  Dec 15, 2018 112   @ Wichita St. L 60-63 36%     4 - 2 +3.9 -8.9 +12.8
  Dec 19, 2018 25   @ Kansas St. L 51-55 12%     4 - 3 +12.0 -6.2 +17.8
  Dec 21, 2018 231   @ South Dakota W 66-60 68%     5 - 3 +4.4 +0.6 +4.4
  Dec 29, 2018 136   @ Louisiana Tech L 56-71 43%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -10.1 -8.8 -2.5
  Jan 03, 2019 254   @ Rice L 65-73 72%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -10.7 -12.4 +2.0
  Jan 05, 2019 138   @ North Texas L 62-65 44%     5 - 6 0 - 3 +1.7 +0.1 +1.3
  Jan 10, 2019 244   Middle Tennessee W 77-70 84%     6 - 6 1 - 3 -0.6 +2.7 -3.3
  Jan 12, 2019 162   UAB W 73-68 72%     7 - 6 2 - 3 +2.1 +5.6 -3.0
  Jan 17, 2019 287   @ Charlotte W 63-60 77%     8 - 6 3 - 3 -1.4 -0.3 -0.7
  Jan 19, 2019 111   @ Old Dominion L 60-78 36%     8 - 7 3 - 4 -11.1 -0.4 -12.8
  Jan 24, 2019 122   Western Kentucky L 63-66 60%     8 - 8 3 - 5 -2.4 -6.5 +4.1
  Jan 26, 2019 202   Marshall W 101-51 79%     9 - 8 4 - 5 +44.8 +21.9 +22.2
  Jan 31, 2019 223   @ Florida International W 89-73 65%     10 - 8 5 - 5 +15.1 +9.5 +4.4
  Feb 02, 2019 168   @ Florida Atlantic W 74-72 53%     11 - 8 6 - 5 +4.5 +14.5 -9.7
  Feb 09, 2019 136   Louisiana Tech W 73-71 65%     12 - 8 7 - 5 +1.3 -0.6 +1.9
  Feb 14, 2019 134   Texas San Antonio W 78-71 64%     13 - 8 8 - 5 +6.4 +4.9 +1.7
  Feb 16, 2019 266   UTEP W 77-47 86%     14 - 8 9 - 5 +21.3 +11.5 +12.3
Projected Record 14.0 - 8.0 9.0 - 5.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 0.0%
8-6
7-7
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 100.0% 18.0% 18.0% 13.9 0.1 3.8 11.4 2.7 0.0 82.0
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 3.8 11.4 2.7 0.0 82.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.0% 100.0% 13.9 0.4 21.1 63.6 14.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.4%
Lose Out 39.0%