Southern Utah
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#280
Achievement Rating-4.3#223
Pace76.0#43
Improvement-0.7#220

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#288
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#308
Layup/Dunks-1.1#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#225
Freethrows+2.7#31
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#235
First Shot-3.0#266
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#88
Layups/Dunks+0.0#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#254
Freethrows-2.6#324
Improvement-0.5#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.3% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 26.4% 45.8% 12.8%
.500 or above in Conference 52.3% 77.0% 35.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 339   @ San Jose St. W 66-59 65%     1 - 0 -3.6 -9.5 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2018 200   @ Seattle W 73-70 25%     2 - 0 +3.4 -1.1 +4.4
  Nov 23, 2018 150   @ UNLV L 71-76 17%     2 - 1 -1.3 -1.7 +0.3
  Dec 05, 2018 216   @ Long Beach St. L 71-82 28%     2 - 2 -11.7 -11.4 +1.1
  Dec 08, 2018 148   @ Central Michigan L 86-95 16%     2 - 3 -5.0 +7.3 -11.8
  Dec 15, 2018 168   Pepperdine W 78-69 36%     3 - 3 +5.9 -8.6 +13.2
  Dec 21, 2018 79   @ USC L 49-91 8%     3 - 4 -33.0 -24.5 -4.4
  Dec 29, 2018 223   Montana St. L 62-92 49%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -36.4 -19.0 -16.3
  Dec 31, 2018 108   Montana L 76-89 22%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -11.4 -4.4 -5.8
  Jan 03, 2019 310   @ Idaho St. L 68-88 48%     3 - 7 0 - 3 -26.1 -15.7 -9.2
  Jan 05, 2019 171   @ Weber St. W 90-82 20%     4 - 7 1 - 3 +10.2 +5.4 +3.7
  Jan 12, 2019 312   Northern Arizona W 84-82 70%     5 - 7 2 - 3 -10.0 +3.9 -13.9
  Jan 17, 2019 291   Portland St. W 83-69 63%     6 - 7 3 - 3 +4.0 -6.1 +8.6
  Jan 19, 2019 245   Sacramento St. W 76-71 54%     7 - 7 4 - 3 -2.7 -5.0 +1.9
  Jan 24, 2019 178   @ Northern Colorado L 68-79 21%     7 - 8 4 - 4 -9.1 -6.2 -2.4
  Jan 28, 2019 312   @ Northern Arizona L 77-80 49%     7 - 9 4 - 5 -9.6 -9.8 +0.6
  Feb 02, 2019 256   @ Eastern Washington L 79-82 35%     7 - 10 4 - 6 -5.8 -0.8 -4.8
  Feb 04, 2019 344   @ Idaho W 75-64 68%     8 - 10 5 - 6 -0.6 +0.0 +0.2
  Feb 07, 2019 171   Weber St. W 65-53 37%     9 - 10 6 - 6 +8.8 -7.9 +16.9
  Feb 09, 2019 310   Idaho St. W 78-72 68%     10 - 10 7 - 6 -5.5 -4.0 -1.5
  Feb 14, 2019 245   @ Sacramento St. L 73-84 33%     10 - 11 7 - 7 -13.3 -2.7 -10.0
  Feb 16, 2019 291   @ Portland St. L 77-79 41%    
  Feb 21, 2019 256   Eastern Washington W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 23, 2019 344   Idaho W 77-67 84%    
  Mar 02, 2019 108   @ Montana L 67-81 10%    
  Mar 04, 2019 223   @ Montana St. L 76-82 29%    
  Mar 07, 2019 178   Northern Colorado L 71-74 39%    
Projected Record 12.6 - 14.4 9.6 - 10.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 7.1 2.9 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.4 16.1 8.1 0.4 27.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 16.8 12.3 1.0 0.0 32.2 6th
7th 0.3 7.1 9.9 0.9 0.0 18.2 7th
8th 1.2 4.8 0.9 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.2 14.5 31.0 31.0 16.5 4.4 0.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.1 0.1 4.3
11-9 16.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.1 0.4 16.0
10-10 31.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 30.4
9-11 31.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 30.6
8-12 14.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.4
7-13 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 1.2%