St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#133
Achievement Rating+0.0#169
Pace64.3#301
Improvement+6.0#10

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#222
First Shot-1.1#214
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#196
Layup/Dunks+1.3#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#301
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+2.6#54

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#72
First Shot+3.1#82
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#110
Layups/Dunks+0.1#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#170
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement+3.4#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.1% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 31.6% 38.3% 10.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 98.3% 85.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.6% 5.1% 2.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 146   Bucknell L 85-88 63%     0 - 1 -4.2 +0.7 -4.5
  Nov 10, 2018 333   Jackson St. W 67-36 93%     1 - 1 +16.2 -12.2 +26.7
  Nov 12, 2018 299   @ Niagara L 72-80 76%     1 - 2 -13.1 -7.8 -5.1
  Nov 19, 2018 131   Georgia St. L 65-75 48%     1 - 3 -7.2 -6.0 -1.4
  Nov 20, 2018 125   Boise St. L 52-72 46%     1 - 4 -16.8 -14.9 -3.7
  Nov 21, 2018 126   Akron L 49-61 46%     1 - 5 -8.8 -7.5 -3.6
  Nov 28, 2018 247   Canisius W 70-55 83%     2 - 5 +7.1 -4.9 +12.6
  Dec 01, 2018 353   Delaware St. W 90-61 98%     3 - 5 +4.9 +1.7 +1.5
  Dec 05, 2018 251   Siena W 82-40 84%     4 - 5 +33.9 +16.8 +22.9
  Dec 08, 2018 28   Buffalo L 62-80 23%     4 - 6 -7.9 -7.2 -0.4
  Dec 18, 2018 81   @ Vermont L 76-83 26%     4 - 7 +1.9 -2.7 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2018 101   @ Northeastern L 59-64 30%     4 - 8 +2.6 -5.3 +7.3
  Dec 29, 2018 40   @ Syracuse L 47-81 14%     4 - 9 -20.3 -15.3 -6.0
  Jan 06, 2019 139   @ George Mason L 53-68 41%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -10.4 -10.0 -2.3
  Jan 09, 2019 182   Saint Joseph's W 73-47 73%     5 - 10 1 - 1 +21.9 +7.2 +18.3
  Jan 12, 2019 226   Fordham W 71-64 73%     6 - 10 2 - 1 +3.0 +5.3 -1.4
  Jan 16, 2019 140   @ Rhode Island L 63-75 41%     6 - 11 2 - 2 -7.5 -5.1 -2.4
  Jan 19, 2019 72   Dayton L 86-89 43%     6 - 12 2 - 3 +1.1 +4.4 -3.0
  Jan 23, 2019 190   @ Massachusetts W 65-51 55%     7 - 12 3 - 3 +14.9 +0.8 +16.0
  Jan 26, 2019 179   @ Richmond W 66-57 53%     8 - 12 4 - 3 +10.6 +0.5 +11.4
  Feb 01, 2019 79   Davidson L 66-75 45%     8 - 13 4 - 4 -5.5 +4.1 -10.7
  Feb 06, 2019 152   @ Duquesne W 51-49 46%     9 - 13 5 - 4 +5.4 -20.1 +25.5
  Feb 09, 2019 47   Virginia Commonwealth L 55-85 34%     9 - 14 5 - 5 -23.4 -13.6 -7.7
  Feb 12, 2019 182   @ Saint Joseph's W 76-51 53%     10 - 14 6 - 5 +26.4 +8.4 +19.8
  Feb 17, 2019 139   George Mason W 79-56 62%     11 - 14 7 - 5 +22.1 +15.5 +9.2
  Feb 20, 2019 198   La Salle W 70-63 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 226   @ Fordham W 64-61 62%    
  Feb 27, 2019 152   Duquesne W 69-65 67%    
  Mar 02, 2019 256   @ George Washington W 67-62 67%    
  Mar 06, 2019 79   @ Davidson L 60-67 26%    
  Mar 09, 2019 121   Saint Louis W 62-60 57%    
Projected Record 14.5 - 16.5 10.5 - 7.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.8 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 8.8 2.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.9 12.7 7.3 0.1 21.1 4th
5th 0.2 10.4 14.0 1.5 0.0 26.0 5th
6th 0.0 3.9 13.8 1.3 19.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 8.2 2.4 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 2.3 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.5 4.3 14.6 27.6 30.5 18.4 4.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 4.0% 10.8% 10.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6
12-6 18.4% 8.5% 8.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 16.9
11-7 30.5% 4.8% 4.8% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 29.0
10-8 27.6% 2.8% 2.8% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 26.8
9-9 14.6% 1.9% 1.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.4
8-10 4.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
7-11 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.6 0.1 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.0 1.4 20.6 56.8 20.8 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 0.3%