St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#215
Achievement Rating-6.0#247
Pace70.3#171
Improvement-3.1#339

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#123
First Shot-3.0#265
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#6
Layup/Dunks-1.1#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#238
Freethrows+1.8#83
Improvement+1.4#66

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#303
First Shot-4.1#291
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#229
Layups/Dunks-1.8#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#276
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement-4.5#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 27.7% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 62.7% 79.9% 56.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 92.2% 85.6%
Conference Champion 32.7% 40.6% 29.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 1.2%
First Four6.7% 4.7% 7.4%
First Round19.2% 25.3% 17.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Away) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 22   @ Buffalo L 67-82 5%     0 - 1 +1.1 -3.0 +5.0
  Nov 09, 2018 312   Morgan St. W 80-60 80%     1 - 1 +8.0 +1.7 +6.1
  Nov 16, 2018 44   @ UCLA L 58-95 7%     1 - 2 -23.8 -11.1 -10.9
  Nov 19, 2018 6   @ North Carolina L 76-101 2%     1 - 3 -3.9 -2.6 +3.0
  Nov 24, 2018 11   @ Virginia Tech L 37-75 3%     1 - 4 -17.9 -25.8 +5.8
  Nov 30, 2018 261   Niagara W 79-75 70%     2 - 4 -4.6 -4.5 -0.4
  Dec 04, 2018 191   @ American L 82-95 34%     2 - 5 -11.8 +6.7 -18.2
  Dec 09, 2018 219   @ Delaware L 83-88 39%     2 - 6 -5.3 +15.7 -21.6
  Dec 22, 2018 149   @ Lehigh L 77-84 26%    
  Jan 03, 2019 340   Mount St. Mary's W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 05, 2019 266   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 10, 2019 241   @ LIU Brooklyn L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 12, 2019 283   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 19, 2019 264   @ Central Connecticut St. L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 21, 2019 335   @ Bryant W 83-77 72%    
  Jan 24, 2019 260   Wagner W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 26, 2019 296   Sacred Heart W 84-77 75%    
  Jan 31, 2019 280   @ Robert Morris W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 02, 2019 340   @ Mount St. Mary's W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 07, 2019 264   Central Connecticut St. W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 09, 2019 335   Bryant W 86-74 87%    
  Feb 14, 2019 266   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 16, 2019 280   Robert Morris W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 21, 2019 283   St. Francis Brooklyn W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 23, 2019 241   LIU Brooklyn W 83-78 67%    
  Feb 28, 2019 260   @ Wagner L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 296   @ Sacred Heart W 81-80 54%    
Projected Record 13.9 - 13.1 11.7 - 6.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.7 8.9 7.4 4.5 1.9 0.4 32.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.1 6.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.2 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.8 8.5 11.2 13.2 14.3 13.8 11.4 7.9 4.6 1.9 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 99.2% 4.5    4.4 0.2
15-3 93.6% 7.4    6.4 1.0 0.0
14-4 77.7% 8.9    6.1 2.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 48.3% 6.7    2.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.4% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.7% 32.7 22.6 7.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 58.8% 58.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.9% 51.6% 51.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9
16-2 4.6% 46.2% 46.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.5
15-3 7.9% 39.3% 39.3% 14.9 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.5 4.8
14-4 11.4% 32.7% 32.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 2.1 1.4 7.7
13-5 13.8% 27.6% 27.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.4 10.0
12-6 14.3% 22.4% 22.4% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.7 11.1
11-7 13.2% 17.0% 17.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1 10.9
10-8 11.2% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5 9.7
9-9 8.5% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 7.6
8-10 5.8% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.5 5.3
7-11 3.6% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.2 3.4
6-12 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 7.3 12.2 77.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.4 0.8 8.2 46.7 36.9 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%