St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#240
Achievement Rating-3.0#205
Pace69.9#153
Improvement+4.1#30

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#144
First Shot-1.2#216
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#36
Layup/Dunks-0.8#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement+3.3#36

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#320
First Shot-4.1#300
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#306
Layups/Dunks-4.0#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#189
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+0.8#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 21.1% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 81.7% 92.4% 61.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 85.3% 95.4% 65.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.9% 10.5% 11.8%
First Round14.0% 16.0% 10.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis Brooklyn (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 28   @ Buffalo L 67-82 4%     0 - 1 +0.7 -2.5 +4.0
  Nov 09, 2018 334   Morgan St. W 80-60 84%     1 - 1 +4.9 +0.8 +3.9
  Nov 16, 2018 94   @ UCLA L 58-95 12%     1 - 2 -29.0 -12.9 -14.3
  Nov 19, 2018 6   @ North Carolina L 76-101 1%     1 - 3 -2.5 -0.4 +2.1
  Nov 24, 2018 17   @ Virginia Tech L 37-75 3%     1 - 4 -19.8 -26.6 +4.8
  Nov 30, 2018 299   Niagara W 79-75 72%     2 - 4 -6.6 -9.2 +2.2
  Dec 04, 2018 208   @ American L 82-95 33%     2 - 5 -13.0 +6.8 -19.4
  Dec 09, 2018 249   @ Delaware L 83-88 42%     2 - 6 -7.4 +16.2 -24.2
  Dec 22, 2018 158   @ Lehigh L 76-88 23%     2 - 7 -8.9 -4.5 -3.5
  Jan 03, 2019 327   Mount St. Mary's W 80-69 81%     3 - 7 1 - 0 -3.0 -1.7 -1.8
  Jan 05, 2019 250   Fairleigh Dickinson L 61-79 63%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -26.1 -17.7 -8.8
  Jan 10, 2019 270   @ LIU Brooklyn W 74-67 46%     4 - 8 2 - 1 +3.5 -6.8 +9.7
  Jan 12, 2019 262   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 68-72 44%     4 - 9 2 - 2 -7.1 -1.9 -5.3
  Jan 19, 2019 305   @ Central Connecticut St. W 80-69 54%     5 - 9 3 - 2 +5.4 +4.4 +1.1
  Jan 21, 2019 326   @ Bryant L 67-76 64%     5 - 10 3 - 3 -17.3 -9.6 -8.1
  Jan 24, 2019 275   Wagner L 79-83 67%     5 - 11 3 - 4 -13.3 +15.4 -29.2
  Jan 26, 2019 255   Sacred Heart W 79-78 64%     6 - 11 4 - 4 -7.3 +0.6 -7.9
  Jan 31, 2019 272   @ Robert Morris W 76-73 46%     7 - 11 5 - 4 -0.5 +8.5 -8.9
  Feb 02, 2019 327   @ Mount St. Mary's W 72-63 65%     8 - 11 6 - 4 +0.5 -1.2 +2.0
  Feb 07, 2019 305   Central Connecticut St. W 90-85 73%     9 - 11 7 - 4 -6.1 +2.9 -9.5
  Feb 09, 2019 326   Bryant W 84-75 81%     10 - 11 8 - 4 -4.8 +5.0 -9.4
  Feb 14, 2019 250   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 87-62 42%     11 - 11 9 - 4 +22.5 +10.6 +12.0
  Feb 16, 2019 272   Robert Morris W 72-69 67%     12 - 11 10 - 4 -6.1 -0.9 -5.1
  Feb 21, 2019 262   St. Francis Brooklyn W 75-71 66%    
  Feb 23, 2019 270   LIU Brooklyn W 81-77 67%    
  Feb 28, 2019 275   @ Wagner L 67-68 46%    
  Mar 02, 2019 255   @ Sacred Heart L 81-83 42%    
Projected Record 14.2 - 12.8 12.2 - 5.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 9.6 36.1 29.8 9.8 85.3 1st
2nd 0.4 8.7 9.1 2nd
3rd 1.7 1.6 3.2 3rd
4th 1.9 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.5 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.4 19.9 36.1 29.8 9.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 9.8    9.8
13-5 100.0% 29.8    29.8
12-6 100.0% 36.1    20.3 14.3 1.5
11-7 48.2% 9.6    0.2 1.9 4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
Total 85.3% 85.3 60.1 16.2 5.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 9.8% 27.0% 27.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.2 7.1
13-5 29.8% 22.8% 22.8% 15.9 0.0 0.8 6.0 23.0
12-6 36.1% 18.5% 18.5% 16.0 0.2 6.4 29.4
11-7 19.9% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.0 2.7 17.2
10-8 4.4% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 3.9
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.4 17.0 80.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 15.4 0.0 2.0 51.2 46.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%
Lose Out 2.3%