St. Francis Brooklyn
Northeast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#262
Achievement Rating-3.4#208
Pace70.1#149
Improvement+0.9#143

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#293
First Shot-5.4#314
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks-2.5#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement+0.4#170

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#190
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#253
Layups/Dunks-5.4#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#4
Freethrows-2.6#325
Improvement+0.5#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 15.8% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 98.2% 100.0% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 100.0% 96.5%
Conference Champion 14.3% 38.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.4% 8.8% 9.7%
First Round8.4% 11.1% 6.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 97   @ Boston College L 69-74 11%     0 - 1 +2.8 +3.1 -0.5
  Nov 14, 2018 179   @ Richmond L 66-88 24%     0 - 2 -20.4 -5.4 -16.1
  Nov 18, 2018 295   @ Lafayette W 84-72 46%     1 - 2 +7.2 -2.0 +7.9
  Nov 23, 2018 205   IUPUI L 48-68 38%     1 - 3 -22.7 -27.8 +5.9
  Nov 24, 2018 299   @ Niagara W 75-63 47%     2 - 3 +6.9 -4.4 +11.1
  Nov 28, 2018 215   @ Presbyterian W 90-86 30%     3 - 3 +3.5 +5.4 -2.1
  Dec 08, 2018 197   @ NJIT L 60-82 27%     3 - 4 -21.4 -10.3 -10.9
  Dec 11, 2018 236   Umass Lowell W 75-69 56%     4 - 4 -1.3 +0.5 -1.4
  Dec 15, 2018 310   St. Peter's W 56-53 71%     5 - 4 -8.5 -13.9 +5.7
  Dec 19, 2018 42   @ St. John's L 52-86 5%     5 - 5 -20.7 -16.4 -2.8
  Dec 23, 2018 308   Manhattan W 72-56 70%     6 - 5 +4.8 -2.8 +7.3
  Jan 03, 2019 326   @ Bryant L 66-76 59%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -18.3 -6.9 -12.5
  Jan 05, 2019 275   @ Wagner W 66-59 42%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +3.2 -2.2 +5.8
  Jan 10, 2019 272   Robert Morris L 49-52 62%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -12.1 -16.7 +4.2
  Jan 12, 2019 240   St. Francis (PA) W 72-68 56%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -3.4 -5.4 +2.2
  Jan 19, 2019 255   Sacred Heart W 92-85 59%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -1.3 +2.6 -4.7
  Jan 21, 2019 270   @ LIU Brooklyn W 79-70 41%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +5.5 +5.2 +0.4
  Jan 24, 2019 250   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 58-60 37%     10 - 8 4 - 3 -4.5 -12.2 +7.4
  Jan 26, 2019 327   @ Mount St. Mary's W 74-67 60%     11 - 8 5 - 3 -1.5 +2.8 -3.9
  Jan 31, 2019 305   @ Central Connecticut St. L 72-78 49%     11 - 9 5 - 4 -11.6 -7.2 -4.1
  Feb 02, 2019 255   @ Sacred Heart L 62-71 38%     11 - 10 5 - 5 -11.7 -17.2 +5.9
  Feb 07, 2019 275   Wagner W 51-44 63%     12 - 10 6 - 5 -2.3 -15.7 +14.4
  Feb 09, 2019 250   Fairleigh Dickinson L 73-84 59%     12 - 11 6 - 6 -19.1 -9.4 -9.3
  Feb 14, 2019 270   LIU Brooklyn W 83-76 62%     13 - 11 7 - 6 -2.0 +2.1 -4.4
  Feb 16, 2019 305   Central Connecticut St. W 90-79 69%     14 - 11 8 - 6 -0.1 +3.2 -4.3
  Feb 21, 2019 240   @ St. Francis (PA) L 71-75 34%    
  Feb 23, 2019 272   @ Robert Morris L 64-66 40%    
  Feb 28, 2019 326   Bryant W 77-69 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 327   Mount St. Mary's W 72-64 78%    
Projected Record 16.3 - 12.7 10.3 - 7.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 6.0 8.3 14.3 1st
2nd 3.3 20.2 1.2 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 16.2 6.5 22.9 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 16.2 0.2 19.5 4th
5th 0.2 8.2 3.2 11.5 5th
6th 1.2 4.8 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.9 0.2 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.3 16.5 38.9 32.9 9.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 87.5% 8.3    3.1 4.2 1.0
11-7 18.3% 6.0    0.1 0.8 2.4 2.3 0.6 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 3.2 5.0 3.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 9.5% 19.5% 19.5% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 7.6
11-7 32.9% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.9 27.8
10-8 38.9% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 4.6 34.3
9-9 16.5% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5 14.9
8-10 2.3% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.2 2.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.7 12.5 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 15.7 0.5 27.6 71.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%
Lose Out 1.4%