St. John's
Big East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#42
Achievement Rating+13.1#32
Pace75.8#46
Improvement+0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#47
First Shot+5.7#35
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#211
Layup/Dunks+2.7#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#86
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement-4.0#320

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#46
First Shot+4.1#55
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#59
Layups/Dunks+1.9#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
Freethrows+0.8#123
Improvement+4.2#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.8% 96.3% 88.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.9% 95.8% 87.4%
Average Seed 8.5 8.2 8.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 98.2% 84.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four4.5% 2.9% 6.6%
First Round90.4% 94.8% 85.1%
Second Round41.2% 45.0% 36.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 9.0% 6.3%
Elite Eight2.5% 2.9% 2.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 281   Loyola Maryland W 76-55 96%     1 - 0 +11.5 -11.1 +20.3
  Nov 09, 2018 100   Bowling Green W 84-80 79%     2 - 0 +6.2 +4.6 +1.2
  Nov 16, 2018 90   @ Rutgers W 84-65 59%     3 - 0 +27.3 +15.8 +11.0
  Nov 19, 2018 257   California W 82-79 92%     4 - 0 -2.6 +6.8 -9.3
  Nov 20, 2018 47   Virginia Commonwealth W 87-86 54%     5 - 0 +10.4 +8.3 +1.9
  Nov 27, 2018 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 85-64 99.5%    6 - 0 -2.5 -2.2 -1.4
  Dec 01, 2018 108   Georgia Tech W 76-73 72%     7 - 0 +7.3 +9.7 -2.4
  Dec 05, 2018 327   Mount St. Mary's W 85-71 98%     8 - 0 +0.0 +5.7 -5.8
  Dec 09, 2018 164   Princeton W 89-74 84%     9 - 0 +14.8 +10.3 +3.0
  Dec 16, 2018 275   Wagner W 73-58 96%     10 - 0 +5.7 -1.1 +6.8
  Dec 19, 2018 262   St. Francis Brooklyn W 86-52 95%     11 - 0 +25.4 +7.2 +16.6
  Dec 22, 2018 255   Sacred Heart W 104-82 95%     12 - 0 +13.7 +12.6 -1.6
  Dec 29, 2018 50   @ Seton Hall L 74-76 44%     12 - 1 0 - 1 +10.0 +2.0 +8.2
  Jan 01, 2019 24   Marquette W 89-69 48%     13 - 1 1 - 1 +30.9 +17.1 +13.1
  Jan 05, 2019 68   @ Georgetown W 97-94 52%     14 - 1 2 - 1 +12.9 +11.3 +1.1
  Jan 08, 2019 19   @ Villanova L 71-76 24%     14 - 2 2 - 2 +12.8 +6.9 +5.7
  Jan 12, 2019 98   DePaul L 71-79 78%     14 - 3 2 - 3 -5.7 -5.1 -0.3
  Jan 16, 2019 51   Creighton W 81-66 65%     15 - 3 3 - 3 +21.5 +11.3 +10.5
  Jan 19, 2019 46   @ Butler L 71-80 43%     15 - 4 3 - 4 +3.2 -1.3 +5.0
  Jan 27, 2019 68   Georgetown L 78-89 72%     15 - 5 3 - 5 -6.7 -7.5 +2.7
  Jan 30, 2019 51   @ Creighton W 83-67 44%     16 - 5 4 - 5 +28.0 +11.1 +16.3
  Feb 02, 2019 1   @ Duke L 61-91 7%     16 - 6 -2.6 -5.4 +5.5
  Feb 05, 2019 24   @ Marquette W 70-69 28%     17 - 6 5 - 5 +17.4 +7.9 +9.6
  Feb 09, 2019 80   Providence L 56-70 75%     17 - 7 5 - 6 -10.5 -7.3 -4.5
  Feb 12, 2019 46   Butler W 77-73 65%     18 - 7 6 - 6 +10.7 -1.3 +11.6
  Feb 17, 2019 19   Villanova W 71-65 43%     19 - 7 7 - 6 +18.2 +1.0 +17.2
  Feb 20, 2019 80   @ Providence W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 23, 2019 50   Seton Hall W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 28, 2019 82   Xavier W 77-70 76%    
  Mar 03, 2019 98   @ DePaul W 79-76 59%    
  Mar 09, 2019 82   @ Xavier W 75-73 55%    
Projected Record 22.1 - 8.9 10.1 - 7.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.4 26.7 26.8 8.6 69.7 3rd
4th 2.0 11.0 6.0 0.4 19.4 4th
5th 0.0 3.4 2.2 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.5 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.2 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.1 7.1 20.7 32.8 28.0 10.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 10.2% 99.7% 15.1% 84.6% 7.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.3 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 28.0% 98.8% 12.7% 86.2% 8.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.9 10.0 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 98.7%
10-8 32.8% 96.4% 10.5% 85.9% 8.6 0.0 0.6 4.1 10.4 10.2 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 96.0%
9-9 20.7% 91.4% 8.8% 82.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.5 6.4 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 90.5%
8-10 7.1% 58.9% 6.0% 52.9% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 56.2%
7-11 1.1% 14.8% 2.9% 11.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 12.2%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.8% 10.8% 82.0% 8.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 4.2 15.3 27.6 24.6 12.7 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.2 91.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 5.0 1.9 25.7 46.4 21.4 4.3 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7% 99.9% 6.9 0.3 5.8 27.3 42.2 19.1 4.8 0.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 99.7% 7.4 1.8 15.5 39.3 30.2 11.2 1.5 0.3
Lose Out 0.5% 0.2% 12.0 0.2