St. Mary's
West Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#49
Achievement Rating+6.5#83
Pace61.6#337
Improvement-2.7#291

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#20
First Shot+8.1#12
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#186
Layup/Dunks+6.6#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#120
Freethrows+0.7#128
Improvement-1.1#244

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#130
First Shot-0.3#178
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#35
Layups/Dunks-2.4#276
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#56
Freethrows+1.4#84
Improvement-1.6#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 6.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 2.7% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 0.6%
First Round5.6% 6.0% 2.8%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 88.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 317   McNeese St. W 87-65 97%     1 - 0 +9.7 +13.0 -1.4
  Nov 11, 2018 120   Utah Valley W 92-63 79%     2 - 0 +29.8 +19.8 +10.4
  Nov 14, 2018 60   @ New Mexico St. W 73-58 45%     3 - 0 +25.6 +13.7 +13.7
  Nov 19, 2018 51   Utah St. L 63-80 50%     3 - 1 -7.8 -7.5 +0.2
  Nov 21, 2018 22   Mississippi St. L 57-61 31%     3 - 2 +10.3 +0.0 +9.6
  Nov 24, 2018 119   Harvard L 68-74 79%     3 - 3 -5.2 -0.2 -5.2
  Nov 28, 2018 109   UC Irvine L 75-80 77%     3 - 4 -3.4 +10.1 -13.9
  Dec 01, 2018 257   California W 84-71 94%     4 - 4 +4.7 +13.0 -6.9
  Dec 04, 2018 306   Bethune-Cookman W 93-61 96%     5 - 4 +20.7 +19.4 +2.1
  Dec 07, 2018 151   New Mexico W 85-60 79%     6 - 4 +25.9 +10.8 +14.5
  Dec 10, 2018 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-66 87%     7 - 4 +12.4 +22.1 -7.4
  Dec 15, 2018 23   LSU L 74-78 31%     7 - 5 +10.3 +2.3 +8.2
  Dec 19, 2018 143   Bucknell W 85-56 83%     8 - 5 +28.0 +17.4 +12.7
  Dec 22, 2018 121   @ Western Kentucky L 68-71 62%     8 - 6 +3.1 +0.9 +2.1
  Dec 29, 2018 339   San Jose St. W 75-45 98%     9 - 6 +13.9 +0.8 +15.0
  Jan 03, 2019 62   @ San Francisco L 72-76 46%     9 - 7 0 - 1 +6.3 +4.4 +1.9
  Jan 05, 2019 75   BYU W 88-66 70%     10 - 7 1 - 1 +25.7 +14.3 +11.4
  Jan 12, 2019 140   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-60 67%     11 - 7 2 - 1 +15.8 +16.2 +1.7
  Jan 17, 2019 195   Santa Clara W 75-55 90%     12 - 7 3 - 1 +15.3 +5.8 +10.9
  Jan 19, 2019 101   San Diego W 76-59 76%     13 - 7 4 - 1 +19.0 +8.1 +11.7
  Jan 24, 2019 75   @ BYU L 66-71 51%     13 - 8 4 - 2 +4.2 +5.0 -1.5
  Jan 26, 2019 168   @ Pepperdine L 77-84 75%     13 - 9 4 - 3 -4.7 +4.0 -8.5
  Feb 02, 2019 62   San Francisco W 86-80 67%     14 - 9 5 - 3 +10.9 +21.0 -9.6
  Feb 07, 2019 186   Pacific W 78-66 89%     15 - 9 6 - 3 +7.9 +19.0 -8.8
  Feb 09, 2019 2   @ Gonzaga L 46-94 6%     15 - 10 6 - 4 -21.3 -13.9 -10.9
  Feb 14, 2019 195   @ Santa Clara W 66-55 79%     16 - 10 7 - 4 +11.7 +0.3 +12.4
  Feb 16, 2019 168   Pepperdine W 80-68 88%    
  Feb 21, 2019 186   @ Pacific W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 101   @ San Diego W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 28, 2019 318   Portland W 79-57 98%    
  Mar 02, 2019 2   Gonzaga L 71-83 14%    
Projected Record 19.3 - 11.7 10.3 - 5.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 3.8 21.9 5.7 31.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 23.4 16.2 0.1 42.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 11.3 13.2 0.1 26.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 1.7 14.0 40.5 38.1 5.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 5.7% 28.8% 9.0% 19.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.1 21.7%
11-5 38.1% 7.8% 5.0% 2.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 35.2 2.9%
10-6 40.5% 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 39.0 0.5%
9-7 14.0% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 13.7 0.1%
8-8 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.5% 4.1% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 93.5 2.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 9.4 0.6 5.2 21.3 19.4 32.3 18.7 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8% 31.8% 11.3 0.5 4.5 13.6 10.6 2.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 13.3% 11.9 0.5 3.2 7.3 2.3