St. Mary's
West Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#52
Achievement Rating+5.5#113
Pace61.0#346
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#18
First Shot+10.5#4
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#310
Layup/Dunks+8.4#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#141
Freethrows+1.7#90
Improvement+0.7#115

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#129
First Shot+1.5#123
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#191
Layups/Dunks-1.9#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#15
Freethrows+1.6#95
Improvement-1.2#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.6% 43.5% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.5% 36.3% 19.0%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 98.0% 99.3% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 94.0% 90.7%
Conference Champion 8.7% 10.3% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four9.1% 10.2% 7.9%
First Round30.3% 38.5% 22.1%
Second Round13.6% 18.0% 9.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 5.6% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Neutral) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 310   McNeese St. W 87-65 96%     1 - 0 +10.3 +14.8 -2.6
  Nov 11, 2018 140   Utah Valley W 92-63 84%     2 - 0 +27.9 +19.8 +8.4
  Nov 14, 2018 63   @ New Mexico St. W 73-58 45%     3 - 0 +25.7 +16.3 +11.3
  Nov 19, 2018 50   Utah St. L 63-80 50%     3 - 1 -7.4 -6.7 -0.3
  Nov 21, 2018 17   Mississippi St. L 57-61 34%     3 - 2 +9.9 +1.8 +7.3
  Nov 24, 2018 93   Harvard L 68-74 75%     3 - 3 -3.4 +0.2 -3.7
  Nov 28, 2018 97   UC Irvine L 75-80 75%     3 - 4 -2.7 +10.4 -13.3
  Dec 01, 2018 179   California W 84-71 90%     4 - 4 +8.8 +15.5 -5.4
  Dec 04, 2018 308   Bethune-Cookman W 93-61 96%     5 - 4 +20.4 +18.2 +3.0
  Dec 07, 2018 146   New Mexico W 85-60 79%     6 - 4 +26.2 +7.8 +17.9
  Dec 10, 2018 167   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-66 88%     7 - 4 +11.5 +21.9 -8.0
  Dec 15, 2018 51   LSU L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 19, 2018 160   Bucknell W 78-66 88%    
  Dec 22, 2018 85   @ Western Kentucky W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 29, 2018 325   San Jose St. W 79-56 98%    
  Jan 03, 2019 47   @ San Francisco L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 05, 2019 65   BYU W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 12, 2019 135   @ Loyola Marymount W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 17, 2019 273   Santa Clara W 78-59 96%    
  Jan 19, 2019 77   San Diego W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 24, 2019 65   @ BYU L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 26, 2019 225   @ Pepperdine W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 02, 2019 47   San Francisco W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 07, 2019 161   Pacific W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 09, 2019 2   @ Gonzaga L 71-84 13%    
  Feb 14, 2019 273   @ Santa Clara W 75-62 87%    
  Feb 16, 2019 225   Pepperdine W 83-67 93%    
  Feb 21, 2019 161   @ Pacific W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 23, 2019 77   @ San Diego L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 28, 2019 271   Portland W 82-63 95%    
  Mar 02, 2019 2   Gonzaga L 74-81 28%    
Projected Record 20.4 - 10.6 10.5 - 5.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.1 1.4 0.2 8.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.7 11.7 7.2 1.4 29.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 9.0 10.0 3.2 0.2 24.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 7.0 6.7 1.3 0.0 17.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.1 0.7 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.7 9.1 13.8 18.1 19.0 16.0 10.3 4.6 1.4 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.4    1.1 0.2
14-2 68.4% 3.1    1.7 1.4 0.0
13-3 28.7% 3.0    0.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
12-4 6.4% 1.0    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.1 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 99.5% 45.5% 54.0% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
15-1 1.4% 94.4% 28.0% 66.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.2%
14-2 4.6% 86.7% 24.4% 62.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 82.4%
13-3 10.3% 74.1% 18.9% 55.3% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.7 68.1%
12-4 16.0% 55.8% 13.9% 42.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.0 48.7%
11-5 19.0% 36.4% 9.5% 26.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.1 29.7%
10-6 18.1% 20.4% 6.6% 13.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 14.4 14.8%
9-7 13.8% 10.1% 4.6% 5.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.4 5.8%
8-8 9.1% 5.0% 3.4% 1.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6 1.6%
7-9 4.7% 2.7% 2.5% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2%
6-10 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1%
5-11 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 34.6% 9.9% 24.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.7 6.7 8.8 5.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 65.4 27.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.4 21.1 36.8 23.7 15.8 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 12.9 41.9 16.1 19.4 3.2 6.5