Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#159
Achievement Rating-1.8#190
Pace71.8#129
Improvement+2.3#37

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#197
First Shot-2.8#257
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#61
Layup/Dunks+7.1#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#194
Freethrows-4.8#350
Improvement+1.4#62

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#137
First Shot+1.8#114
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#232
Layups/Dunks-2.0#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#266
Freethrows+2.1#69
Improvement+0.9#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.7% 35.0% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 88.5% 94.4% 83.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 97.7% 94.7%
Conference Champion 42.5% 48.5% 36.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.3% 2.9% 5.6%
First Round29.9% 33.9% 26.1%
Second Round2.4% 2.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 48.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 46   @ Miami (FL) L 58-96 12%     0 - 1 -25.1 -8.2 -17.5
  Nov 20, 2018 215   Marist W 64-60 73%     1 - 1 -2.2 -7.3 +5.4
  Nov 30, 2018 43   San Francisco L 58-76 18%     1 - 2 -8.0 -6.9 -1.5
  Dec 01, 2018 282   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-51 75%     2 - 2 +8.3 -7.0 +15.8
  Dec 07, 2018 121   Louisiana Tech L 93-96 48%     2 - 3 -2.3 +9.3 -11.3
  Dec 15, 2018 205   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 18, 2018 68   @ Baylor L 63-73 16%    
  Dec 30, 2018 63   Alabama L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 02, 2019 298   SE Louisiana W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 09, 2019 262   @ Nicholls St. W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 12, 2019 346   Northwestern St. W 80-61 96%    
  Jan 16, 2019 259   @ New Orleans W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 19, 2019 339   @ Incarnate Word W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 23, 2019 164   Abilene Christian W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 30, 2019 279   Central Arkansas W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 02, 2019 288   @ Sam Houston St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 06, 2019 283   @ Houston Baptist W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 09, 2019 252   Lamar W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 13, 2019 308   McNeese St. W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 16, 2019 346   @ Northwestern St. W 77-64 88%    
  Feb 20, 2019 302   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 23, 2019 339   Incarnate Word W 80-64 93%    
  Feb 27, 2019 279   @ Central Arkansas W 79-75 63%    
  Mar 02, 2019 252   @ Lamar W 74-71 59%    
  Mar 05, 2019 164   @ Abilene Christian L 68-70 42%    
  Mar 09, 2019 288   Sam Houston St. W 74-64 82%    
Projected Record 16.2 - 9.8 13.3 - 4.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.4 8.3 11.4 10.9 6.3 1.9 42.5 1st
2nd 0.6 3.5 7.2 6.6 2.9 0.4 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 5.9 3.6 0.9 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.5 2.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.7 5.8 9.4 12.9 14.7 15.9 14.3 11.3 6.3 1.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 100.0% 6.3    6.1 0.2
16-2 96.5% 10.9    9.8 1.1 0.0
15-3 79.4% 11.4    8.3 2.9 0.2
14-4 52.4% 8.3    3.8 3.5 0.9 0.1
13-5 23.0% 3.4    0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.5% 42.5 30.7 9.3 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 64.6% 64.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.7
17-1 6.3% 58.2% 58.2% 14.1 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.1 2.6
16-2 11.3% 53.5% 53.5% 14.7 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.2 0.6 5.3
15-3 14.3% 44.3% 44.3% 15.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 1.5 8.0
14-4 15.9% 38.3% 38.3% 15.4 0.4 3.0 2.7 9.8
13-5 14.7% 27.6% 27.6% 15.6 0.1 1.3 2.7 10.6
12-6 12.9% 18.2% 18.2% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.8 10.6
11-7 9.4% 12.5% 12.5% 15.9 0.1 1.1 8.2
10-8 5.8% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 5.3
9-9 3.7% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.5
8-10 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.7% 31.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.6 13.0 11.1 68.4 0.0%