Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#274
Achievement Rating-5.7#249
Pace72.5#88
Improvement-4.2#326

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#290
First Shot-5.3#312
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#153
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#326
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement-0.1#198

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#212
First Shot+0.1#169
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#309
Layups/Dunks-0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#297
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement-4.1#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 21.9% 30.6% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.1% 75.5% 34.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 0.9%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 60   @ Miami (FL) L 58-96 7%     0 - 1 -27.5 -8.6 -19.5
  Nov 20, 2018 235   Marist W 64-60 53%     1 - 1 -3.2 -8.9 +5.9
  Nov 30, 2018 61   San Francisco L 58-76 10%     1 - 2 -10.3 -10.1 -0.5
  Dec 01, 2018 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-51 57%     2 - 2 +6.7 -9.2 +16.4
  Dec 07, 2018 136   Louisiana Tech L 93-96 29%     2 - 3 -3.7 +12.4 -15.8
  Dec 15, 2018 157   @ Louisiana Monroe L 58-74 18%     2 - 4 -12.9 -17.2 +4.2
  Dec 18, 2018 33   @ Baylor W 59-58 4%     3 - 4 +15.5 -6.9 +22.3
  Dec 30, 2018 44   Alabama L 69-79 11%     3 - 5 -3.2 -2.9 +0.0
  Jan 02, 2019 242   SE Louisiana W 65-60 54%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -2.5 -7.6 +5.2
  Jan 09, 2019 322   @ Nicholls St. L 73-78 55%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -12.7 -7.6 -4.8
  Jan 12, 2019 331   Northwestern St. L 59-61 77%     4 - 7 1 - 2 -16.3 -18.1 +1.8
  Jan 16, 2019 269   @ New Orleans L 61-68 39%     4 - 8 1 - 3 -10.5 -11.5 +1.3
  Jan 19, 2019 339   @ Incarnate Word W 74-71 66%     5 - 8 2 - 3 -7.7 -2.3 -5.2
  Jan 23, 2019 169   Abilene Christian W 61-60 37%     6 - 8 3 - 3 -2.1 -14.9 +12.8
  Jan 30, 2019 302   Central Arkansas W 105-99 66%     7 - 8 4 - 3 -4.8 +8.1 -13.9
  Feb 02, 2019 173   @ Sam Houston St. L 72-94 20%     7 - 9 4 - 4 -19.7 -1.8 -17.1
  Feb 06, 2019 288   @ Houston Baptist W 79-77 42%     8 - 9 5 - 4 -2.4 -1.5 -1.1
  Feb 09, 2019 245   Lamar L 67-82 55%     8 - 10 5 - 5 -22.7 -1.1 -23.7
  Feb 13, 2019 324   McNeese St. W 67-57 75%     9 - 10 6 - 5 -3.4 -14.8 +11.4
  Feb 16, 2019 331   @ Northwestern St. L 72-87 59%     9 - 11 6 - 6 -23.7 -6.9 -16.1
  Feb 20, 2019 282   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 23, 2019 339   Incarnate Word W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 27, 2019 302   @ Central Arkansas L 75-76 45%    
  Mar 02, 2019 245   @ Lamar L 70-74 34%    
  Mar 05, 2019 169   @ Abilene Christian L 64-73 19%    
  Mar 09, 2019 173   Sam Houston St. L 68-71 39%    
Projected Record 11.8 - 14.2 8.8 - 9.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 0.6 1.6 3rd
4th 0.3 4.3 4.3 0.3 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 5.2 10.9 1.4 0.0 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 5.3 20.3 5.2 0.1 31.0 6th
7th 0.7 12.5 5.7 0.1 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 3.5 7.4 0.3 11.2 8th
9th 0.2 5.3 1.3 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.9 1.9 0.1 2.9 10th
11th 0.5 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.8 11.4 26.7 31.8 20.5 6.9 1.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.0% 10.9% 10.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
11-7 6.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.4
10-8 20.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 19.7
9-9 31.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 31.1
8-10 26.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.3 26.4
7-11 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.3 4.8 64.8 30.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 1.8%