Stony Brook
America East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#170
Achievement Rating+6.2#90
Pace71.0#125
Improvement-1.2#238

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#271
First Shot-3.9#288
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#135
Layup/Dunks-1.9#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#267
Freethrows+1.1#101
Improvement-5.4#336

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot+2.9#86
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#177
Layups/Dunks+1.1#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#66
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement+4.2#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 17.9% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 9.6% 11.1% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.2% 17.9% 13.8%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 82.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 256   @ George Washington W 77-74 59%     1 - 0 +0.2 -2.2 +2.1
  Nov 09, 2018 74   @ South Carolina W 83-81 18%     2 - 0 +11.4 +10.5 +0.9
  Nov 16, 2018 234   Holy Cross L 70-84 66%     2 - 1 -18.5 -0.4 -19.0
  Nov 17, 2018 261   Norfolk St. W 72-65 70%     3 - 1 +1.2 -3.5 +4.7
  Nov 24, 2018 140   @ Rhode Island W 68-58 32%     4 - 1 +14.5 -1.8 +16.2
  Nov 27, 2018 261   @ Norfolk St. W 79-73 60%     5 - 1 +3.0 +4.6 -1.7
  Dec 01, 2018 211   Quinnipiac W 71-61 70%     6 - 1 +4.2 -7.1 +11.3
  Dec 05, 2018 308   @ Manhattan W 69-62 70%     7 - 1 +1.3 +3.7 -1.9
  Dec 08, 2018 154   @ Brown L 69-71 36%     7 - 2 +1.3 +2.7 -1.4
  Dec 12, 2018 270   LIU Brooklyn W 83-79 80%     8 - 2 -5.0 +2.3 -7.4
  Dec 16, 2018 249   Delaware W 74-68 77%     9 - 2 -1.9 +2.9 -4.2
  Dec 19, 2018 87   Hofstra L 64-71 37%     9 - 3 -3.9 -11.6 +7.7
  Dec 22, 2018 211   @ Quinnipiac W 76-73 50%     10 - 3 +2.7 +1.5 +1.3
  Dec 29, 2018 180   @ Northern Iowa W 73-63 43%     11 - 3 +11.5 +1.8 +9.9
  Jan 05, 2019 236   @ Umass Lowell W 75-63 56%     12 - 3 1 - 0 +10.2 -6.6 +16.0
  Jan 09, 2019 336   Binghamton W 59-46 91%     13 - 3 2 - 0 -2.2 -17.7 +16.1
  Jan 12, 2019 347   New Hampshire W 62-44 94%     14 - 3 3 - 0 +0.0 -16.4 +16.0
  Jan 19, 2019 314   @ Maine W 64-61 73%     15 - 3 4 - 0 -3.6 -11.9 +8.3
  Jan 23, 2019 293   @ Albany W 67-66 66%     16 - 3 5 - 0 -3.6 -4.9 +1.3
  Jan 26, 2019 81   Vermont L 52-73 36%     16 - 4 5 - 1 -17.6 -18.5 +0.4
  Jan 30, 2019 219   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 49-57 51%     16 - 5 5 - 2 -8.6 -15.7 +6.4
  Feb 02, 2019 188   Hartford W 86-77 66%     17 - 5 6 - 2 +4.5 +2.4 +1.5
  Feb 06, 2019 336   @ Binghamton W 85-59 81%     18 - 5 7 - 2 +16.3 +5.9 +9.6
  Feb 09, 2019 236   Umass Lowell W 76-65 75%     19 - 5 8 - 2 +3.7 -7.6 +10.7
  Feb 16, 2019 347   @ New Hampshire W 66-64 87%     20 - 5 9 - 2 -10.5 -5.2 -5.2
  Feb 21, 2019 293   Albany W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 23, 2019 314   Maine W 70-58 87%    
  Feb 27, 2019 219   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 65-59 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 81   @ Vermont L 63-72 18%    
  Mar 05, 2019 188   @ Hartford L 71-72 44%    
Projected Record 23.0 - 7.0 12.0 - 4.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.4 4.9 9.6 1st
2nd 0.4 12.4 38.5 23.0 74.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 9.4 1.4 14.5 3rd
4th 0.3 1.2 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.5 5.2 21.8 40.2 27.4 4.9 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 4.9    2.0 2.9
13-3 16.1% 4.4    0.5 3.7 0.2
12-4 0.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 9.6% 9.6 2.5 6.7 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 4.9% 25.3% 25.3% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 3.7
13-3 27.4% 20.4% 20.4% 14.1 0.0 0.7 3.4 1.5 0.0 21.8
12-4 40.2% 17.5% 17.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 3.1 3.6 0.1 33.2
11-5 21.8% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.2 19.0
10-6 5.2% 9.3% 9.3% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.7
9-7 0.5% 8.1% 8.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 1.6 7.8 7.3 0.4 82.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 13.3 9.6 51.4 36.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 0.2%