Stony Brook
America East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#165
Achievement Rating+7.7#85
Pace69.6#184
Improvement+0.5#133

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#178
First Shot-2.5#255
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#65
Layup/Dunks-1.9#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#248
Freethrows+3.2#38
Improvement+0.5#133

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#159
First Shot-0.3#182
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#139
Layups/Dunks-2.6#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#64
Freethrows-2.5#302
Improvement+0.0#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.5% 20.7% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 97.7% 98.6% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 94.2% 90.0%
Conference Champion 23.2% 24.7% 17.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round19.2% 20.5% 14.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 279   @ George Washington W 77-74 63%     1 - 0 -0.6 -4.3 +3.5
  Nov 09, 2018 117   @ South Carolina W 83-81 25%     2 - 0 +8.8 +11.9 -3.1
  Nov 16, 2018 157   Holy Cross L 70-84 48%     2 - 1 -13.6 +3.0 -17.5
  Nov 17, 2018 277   Norfolk St. W 72-65 73%     3 - 1 +0.5 -3.8 +4.2
  Nov 24, 2018 113   @ Rhode Island W 68-58 24%     4 - 1 +17.3 +1.2 +16.0
  Nov 27, 2018 277   @ Norfolk St. W 79-73 63%     5 - 1 +2.5 +4.5 -2.1
  Dec 01, 2018 249   Quinnipiac W 71-61 78%     6 - 1 +1.8 -3.3 +5.1
  Dec 05, 2018 310   @ Manhattan W 69-62 70%     7 - 1 +1.3 +4.5 -2.6
  Dec 08, 2018 176   @ Brown L 69-71 43%     7 - 2 -0.2 +1.0 -1.2
  Dec 12, 2018 244   LIU Brooklyn W 80-72 77%    
  Dec 16, 2018 220   Delaware W 74-68 72%    
  Dec 19, 2018 131   Hofstra W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 22, 2018 249   @ Quinnipiac W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 29, 2018 174   @ Northern Iowa L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 05, 2019 268   @ Umass Lowell W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 09, 2019 325   Binghamton W 77-63 90%    
  Jan 12, 2019 343   New Hampshire W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 19, 2019 330   @ Maine W 68-60 78%    
  Jan 23, 2019 274   @ Albany W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 26, 2019 110   Vermont L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 30, 2019 192   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 02, 2019 216   Hartford W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 06, 2019 325   @ Binghamton W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 09, 2019 268   Umass Lowell W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 16, 2019 343   @ New Hampshire W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 21, 2019 274   Albany W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 23, 2019 330   Maine W 71-57 90%    
  Feb 27, 2019 192   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-66 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 110   @ Vermont L 65-73 25%    
  Mar 05, 2019 216   @ Hartford W 72-71 50%    
Projected Record 20.9 - 9.1 10.9 - 5.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 7.4 6.8 3.3 0.7 23.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 9.3 11.2 6.0 1.0 31.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 8.3 6.8 1.8 0.1 21.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.6 0.2 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 7.2 11.1 15.1 17.5 17.0 13.5 7.8 3.3 0.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 3.3    3.1 0.2
14-2 86.6% 6.8    5.1 1.7 0.0
13-3 55.0% 7.4    3.8 3.2 0.4 0.0
12-4 23.6% 4.0    1.1 2.1 0.8 0.1
11-5 5.1% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 13.9 7.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 51.5% 50.3% 1.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4%
15-1 3.3% 41.8% 41.5% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.9 0.5%
14-2 7.8% 36.3% 36.2% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.0 0.1%
13-3 13.5% 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.1 9.5 0.0%
12-4 17.0% 23.0% 23.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.2 13.1
11-5 17.5% 17.6% 17.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.4 14.4
10-6 15.1% 13.2% 13.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 13.1
9-7 11.1% 9.9% 9.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 10.0
8-8 7.2% 7.4% 7.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.6
7-9 3.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6
6-10 1.9% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.8
5-11 0.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 6.5 6.5 2.2 80.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 6.2 27.2 56.8 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 10.6% 11.6 4.3 6.4