Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#256
Achievement Rating-9.2#283
Pace71.7#131
Improvement-1.1#263

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#307
First Shot-5.3#306
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#153
Layup/Dunks-0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#304
Freethrows-0.9#222
Improvement-1.5#298

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#171
First Shot+0.9#143
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#253
Layups/Dunks-3.2#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#41
Freethrows-1.1#242
Improvement+0.3#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 3.3% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 14.7 15.5
.500 or above 2.5% 18.6% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 42.5% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 24.9% 12.6% 25.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round0.9% 3.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 174   Northern Iowa W 74-65 45%     1 - 0 +5.1 -2.8 +7.4
  Nov 16, 2018 301   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-73 70%     1 - 1 -16.8 -7.8 -9.0
  Nov 18, 2018 224   UC Davis W 68-59 55%     2 - 1 +2.4 +1.3 +1.7
  Nov 20, 2018 22   @ Indiana L 64-78 4%     2 - 2 +2.0 -3.0 +5.6
  Nov 23, 2018 58   @ Arkansas L 60-78 7%     2 - 3 -6.3 -13.3 +8.9
  Nov 27, 2018 120   @ Tulsa L 58-72 13%     2 - 4 -7.4 -7.4 -1.0
  Dec 01, 2018 221   UT Rio Grande Valley L 65-76 55%     2 - 5 -17.5 -8.4 -9.2
  Dec 04, 2018 85   @ Missouri L 45-65 10%     2 - 6 -10.9 -19.2 +6.6
  Dec 08, 2018 124   @ North Texas L 61-63 14%     2 - 7 +4.4 -2.7 +6.9
  Dec 18, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 65-92 0.5%   
  Dec 21, 2018 310   @ Cal Poly W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 28, 2018 42   @ Texas L 57-76 4%    
  Jan 03, 2019 117   Georgia St. L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 05, 2019 129   Georgia Southern L 77-82 32%    
  Jan 10, 2019 180   @ Appalachian St. L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 12, 2019 188   @ Coastal Carolina L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 17, 2019 290   Arkansas St. W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 19, 2019 239   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 24, 2019 129   @ Georgia Southern L 74-85 16%    
  Jan 26, 2019 117   @ Georgia St. L 67-79 14%    
  Feb 02, 2019 144   @ Texas St. L 60-70 19%    
  Feb 07, 2019 188   Coastal Carolina L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 09, 2019 180   Appalachian St. L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 14, 2019 239   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 16, 2019 290   @ Arkansas St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 21, 2019 115   Louisiana L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 207   Louisiana Monroe W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 28, 2019 195   @ South Alabama L 65-71 29%    
  Mar 02, 2019 208   @ Troy L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 09, 2019 144   Texas St. L 63-67 37%    
Projected Record 9.0 - 21.0 6.4 - 11.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.9 2.0 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.4 3.4 0.3 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.4 5.0 0.8 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.5 5.7 1.4 0.0 14.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.5 5.7 1.8 0.1 15.9 11th
12th 0.3 1.5 3.6 5.1 3.8 1.3 0.1 15.9 12th
Total 0.3 1.5 4.0 7.7 11.1 13.9 14.6 13.9 11.6 8.9 5.8 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 83.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 64.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 13.8% 13.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 11.3% 11.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 12.1% 12.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 8.3% 8.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 1.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-7 3.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.3
10-8 5.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.6
9-9 8.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.8
8-10 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-11 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.8
6-12 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.6
5-13 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
4-14 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
3-15 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
2-16 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0
1-17 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%