Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#134
Achievement Rating+1.2#150
Pace77.2#29
Improvement+5.5#15

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#119
First Shot+1.4#142
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#128
Layup/Dunks-0.8#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows-1.3#271
Improvement+6.6#5

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#172
First Shot+0.5#155
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#223
Layups/Dunks+1.8#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#81
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement-1.2#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 23.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.7% 23.3% 0.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.6% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2018 34   Oklahoma L 67-87 26%     0 - 1 -11.2 -7.8 -0.9
  Nov 14, 2018 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 60-82 27%     0 - 2 -13.4 -12.2 -0.1
  Nov 19, 2018 107   @ UC Irvine L 56-65 31%     0 - 3 -1.8 -10.3 +8.4
  Nov 20, 2018 77   South Dakota St. L 79-99 34%     0 - 4 -13.6 +2.4 -14.9
  Nov 21, 2018 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 76-65 73%     1 - 4 +6.8 +0.6 +6.0
  Nov 26, 2018 288   @ Houston Baptist W 86-82 74%     2 - 4 -0.4 -1.7 +0.7
  Dec 01, 2018 124   Texas St. L 68-69 57%     2 - 5 -0.5 -5.6 +5.2
  Dec 15, 2018 58   Arkansas L 67-79 29%     2 - 6 -4.1 -3.7 +0.1
  Dec 20, 2018 282   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64-50 73%     3 - 6 +10.0 -9.3 +19.2
  Jan 03, 2019 266   UTEP W 75-60 85%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +6.3 -1.3 +6.7
  Jan 05, 2019 266   @ UTEP W 67-63 70%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +0.9 -4.5 +5.2
  Jan 10, 2019 254   Rice W 95-79 84%     6 - 6 3 - 0 +7.7 +8.0 -1.8
  Jan 12, 2019 138   North Texas W 76-74 62%     7 - 6 4 - 0 +1.2 -2.8 +3.8
  Jan 17, 2019 244   @ Middle Tennessee L 86-89 66%     7 - 7 4 - 1 -5.1 +4.5 -9.4
  Jan 19, 2019 162   @ UAB L 73-83 48%     7 - 8 4 - 2 -7.4 +0.1 -7.4
  Jan 24, 2019 287   Charlotte W 88-43 87%     8 - 8 5 - 2 +35.1 +22.6 +17.2
  Jan 26, 2019 111   Old Dominion W 74-73 53%     9 - 8 6 - 2 +2.4 +0.1 +2.2
  Jan 31, 2019 122   @ Western Kentucky L 88-96 35%     9 - 9 6 - 3 -1.8 +12.4 -13.5
  Feb 02, 2019 202   @ Marshall W 116-106 57%     10 - 9 7 - 3 +10.3 +8.8 -1.3
  Feb 07, 2019 223   Florida International W 100-67 79%     11 - 9 8 - 3 +26.6 +13.0 +9.9
  Feb 09, 2019 168   Florida Atlantic W 86-74 69%     12 - 9 9 - 3 +9.0 +11.0 -2.5
  Feb 14, 2019 127   @ Southern Miss L 71-78 36%     12 - 10 9 - 4 -1.1 +2.2 -3.3
  Feb 16, 2019 136   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-72 40%     12 - 11 9 - 5 -0.1 +0.3 -0.6
Projected Record 12.0 - 11.0 9.0 - 5.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 0.0%
8-6
7-7
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 100.0% 14.7% 14.7% 14.4 0.0 0.7 8.0 5.8 0.1 85.3
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.7 8.0 5.8 0.1 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.7% 100.0% 14.4 0.0 5.0 54.5 39.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.8%
Lose Out 37.0%