Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#228
Achievement Rating-2.1#193
Pace81.9#12
Improvement-0.3#200

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#193
First Shot-1.2#218
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#122
Layup/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#262
Freethrows+0.5#139
Improvement+1.9#86

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#273
First Shot-3.4#278
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#215
Layups/Dunks-2.0#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#253
Freethrows+1.1#111
Improvement-2.2#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.5% 39.2% 34.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 97.9% 99.5% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 13.0% 17.2% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.0% 14.4% 22.6%
First Round29.2% 32.2% 23.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Away) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 33   @ Baylor W 72-69 5%     1 - 0 +17.5 +6.5 +11.0
  Nov 10, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga L 67-104 1%     1 - 1 -10.2 -6.1 +1.4
  Nov 12, 2018 12   @ Iowa St. L 73-85 3%     1 - 2 +7.0 +0.1 +8.2
  Nov 14, 2018 115   @ San Diego St. L 64-103 15%     1 - 3 -32.3 -13.3 -14.4
  Nov 18, 2018 201   @ Evansville L 63-85 33%     1 - 4 -21.7 -16.8 -1.5
  Nov 26, 2018 55   @ Oregon W 89-84 8%     2 - 4 +16.2 +14.0 +1.6
  Dec 01, 2018 54   @ Arizona St. L 71-83 8%     2 - 5 -0.5 +0.1 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2018 113   @ Georgia L 75-92 15%     2 - 6 -10.2 -1.4 -7.3
  Dec 17, 2018 290   @ Tulane L 70-77 51%     2 - 7 -11.5 -9.2 -1.7
  Dec 19, 2018 245   @ Lamar L 72-80 42%     2 - 8 -10.1 -9.4 +0.0
  Dec 29, 2018 85   @ Texas A&M W 88-73 12%     3 - 8 +23.7 +18.7 +4.7
  Jan 05, 2019 349   @ Alcorn St. W 87-70 82%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +3.0 +4.8 -2.7
  Jan 07, 2019 342   @ Southern W 77-67 77%     5 - 8 2 - 0 -1.7 -0.8 -0.9
  Jan 12, 2019 265   @ Prairie View L 73-79 46%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -9.1 -10.0 +1.6
  Jan 19, 2019 284   Grambling St. L 87-88 70%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -10.7 -4.9 -5.6
  Jan 21, 2019 333   Jackson St. W 75-65 84%     6 - 10 3 - 2 -4.8 +1.9 -6.3
  Jan 26, 2019 330   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 86-90 67%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -12.6 +0.9 -13.1
  Jan 28, 2019 350   @ Mississippi Valley W 65-62 84%     7 - 11 4 - 3 -11.9 -16.0 +4.0
  Feb 02, 2019 320   Alabama St. W 83-59 80%     8 - 11 5 - 3 +11.2 +5.8 +5.8
  Feb 04, 2019 346   Alabama A&M W 84-74 89%     9 - 11 6 - 3 -7.8 +4.0 -12.0
  Feb 09, 2019 265   Prairie View W 95-90 67%     10 - 11 7 - 3 -3.7 +6.5 -10.8
  Feb 16, 2019 284   @ Grambling St. W 86-85 50%     11 - 11 8 - 3 -3.2 +3.0 -6.3
  Feb 18, 2019 333   @ Jackson St. W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 23, 2019 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-72 83%    
  Feb 25, 2019 350   Mississippi Valley W 86-70 94%    
  Mar 02, 2019 320   @ Alabama St. W 79-76 61%    
  Mar 04, 2019 346   @ Alabama A&M W 78-70 77%    
  Mar 07, 2019 349   Alcorn St. W 81-66 93%    
  Mar 09, 2019 342   Southern W 84-71 90%    
Projected Record 16.7 - 12.3 13.7 - 4.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.1 8.4 13.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 8.9 25.2 32.7 14.8 82.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.5 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.7 10.6 26.3 36.8 23.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 36.1% 8.4    2.5 5.8
14-4 11.1% 4.1    0.7 3.3 0.1
13-5 2.0% 0.5    0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 3.3 9.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 23.2% 43.5% 43.5% 15.3 0.0 0.6 6.1 3.3 13.1
14-4 36.8% 39.5% 39.5% 15.9 0.0 1.6 12.9 22.2
13-5 26.3% 34.8% 34.8% 16.0 0.3 8.9 17.1
12-6 10.6% 29.1% 29.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1 7.5
11-7 2.7% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.1
10-8 0.4% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.1 0.3
9-9 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.5% 37.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.6 8.0 28.9 62.5 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.1% 100.0% 15.3 0.0 6.0 61.0 33.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3%