Texas St.
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#142
Achievement Rating+9.4#72
Pace63.9#319
Improvement-0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#215
First Shot-2.9#261
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#82
Layup/Dunks+0.5#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#217
Freethrows-1.9#273
Improvement+0.7#120

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#82
First Shot+0.7#152
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#35
Layups/Dunks+2.2#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
Freethrows-3.2#318
Improvement-0.8#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 14.1% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 96.5% 98.4% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.2% 84.4% 76.7%
Conference Champion 16.6% 19.1% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.1% 2.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round12.3% 14.0% 10.0%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 243   Air Force W 67-57 82%     1 - 0 +2.0 -3.9 +6.6
  Nov 17, 2018 157   @ Drake L 69-75 43%     1 - 1 -2.6 -6.2 +3.8
  Nov 21, 2018 309   Cal Poly W 54-42 83%     2 - 1 +3.4 -13.3 +18.8
  Nov 23, 2018 331   South Carolina Upstate W 82-50 89%     3 - 1 +20.4 +6.8 +14.7
  Nov 24, 2018 271   @ Portland W 91-68 68%     4 - 1 +19.9 +14.7 +5.1
  Nov 28, 2018 315   Rice W 74-60 90%     5 - 1 +1.7 -0.2 +2.9
  Dec 01, 2018 187   @ Texas San Antonio W 69-68 50%     6 - 1 +2.5 -4.7 +7.2
  Dec 05, 2018 301   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 61-55 73%     7 - 1 +1.2 -9.1 +10.5
  Dec 08, 2018 284   Houston Baptist W 90-80 86%     8 - 1 +0.1 +6.6 -6.7
  Dec 15, 2018 222   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 67-65 58%    
  Dec 22, 2018 58   @ Arkansas L 66-76 17%    
  Jan 03, 2019 130   Georgia Southern W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 05, 2019 107   Georgia St. W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 10, 2019 188   @ Coastal Carolina W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 12, 2019 180   @ Appalachian St. L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 17, 2019 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-63 81%    
  Jan 19, 2019 290   Arkansas St. W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 24, 2019 107   @ Georgia St. L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 26, 2019 130   @ Georgia Southern L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 02, 2019 254   Texas Arlington W 70-60 82%    
  Feb 07, 2019 180   Appalachian St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 09, 2019 188   Coastal Carolina W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 14, 2019 290   @ Arkansas St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 16, 2019 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 21, 2019 207   Louisiana Monroe W 68-61 75%    
  Feb 23, 2019 118   Louisiana W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 28, 2019 206   @ Troy W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 02, 2019 195   @ South Alabama W 65-64 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 254   @ Texas Arlington W 67-63 64%    
Projected Record 19.7 - 9.3 10.9 - 7.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.0 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 16.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.8 6.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.1 6.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 5.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.3 8.1 10.8 13.1 14.3 13.9 11.8 8.6 5.1 2.4 0.9 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.9% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 96.7% 2.3    2.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 84.1% 4.3    3.1 1.1 0.1
14-4 58.4% 5.0    2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 25.2% 3.0    0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.7 5.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 50.6% 42.9% 7.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.6%
17-1 0.9% 40.2% 36.5% 3.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5.9%
16-2 2.4% 33.8% 32.8% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.5%
15-3 5.1% 28.6% 28.3% 0.3% 12.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 0.4%
14-4 8.6% 23.9% 23.8% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 6.6 0.2%
13-5 11.8% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.5 0.0%
12-6 13.9% 15.2% 15.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 11.8
11-7 14.3% 10.6% 10.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 12.8
10-8 13.1% 6.8% 6.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 12.3
9-9 10.8% 4.3% 4.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.4
8-10 8.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.9
7-11 5.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.1
6-12 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.4% 12.3% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 4.2 2.3 0.5 87.6 0.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.8 4.3 17.4 69.6 8.7