Texas St.
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#124
Achievement Rating+8.1#69
Pace64.4#301
Improvement-1.1#239

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#181
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#114
Layup/Dunks+0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
Freethrows-1.6#287
Improvement+0.8#143

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#83
First Shot+1.6#118
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#34
Layups/Dunks+2.7#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#91
Freethrows-2.5#323
Improvement-1.9#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.7% 25.1% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 80.7% 88.4% 62.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.7% 25.1% 20.3%
Second Round2.6% 2.8% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 238   Air Force W 67-57 84%     1 - 0 +2.8 -3.3 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2018 129   @ Drake L 69-75 41%     1 - 1 -0.4 -4.6 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2018 327   Cal Poly W 54-42 91%     2 - 1 +0.7 -13.6 +16.5
  Nov 23, 2018 336   South Carolina Upstate W 82-50 92%     3 - 1 +19.5 +6.7 +13.8
  Nov 24, 2018 318   @ Portland W 91-68 83%     4 - 1 +16.0 +16.3 -0.4
  Nov 28, 2018 248   Rice W 74-60 85%     5 - 1 +6.2 +0.5 +6.6
  Dec 01, 2018 135   @ Texas San Antonio W 69-68 43%     6 - 1 +6.1 -5.1 +11.1
  Dec 05, 2018 275   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 61-55 75%     7 - 1 +2.2 -9.9 +12.3
  Dec 08, 2018 289   Houston Baptist W 90-80 89%     8 - 1 +0.1 +9.4 -9.5
  Dec 15, 2018 183   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-68 57%     9 - 1 +10.5 +5.9 +4.1
  Dec 22, 2018 59   @ Arkansas L 70-73 24%     9 - 2 +7.7 +2.8 +4.9
  Jan 03, 2019 127   Georgia Southern W 73-70 61%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +3.3 -6.4 +9.5
  Jan 05, 2019 130   Georgia St. L 69-73 62%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -3.9 -5.8 +1.9
  Jan 10, 2019 158   @ Coastal Carolina W 65-61 51%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +6.9 -2.7 +9.8
  Jan 12, 2019 199   @ Appalachian St. W 70-69 61%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +1.4 -2.5 +4.0
  Jan 17, 2019 206   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-62 79%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +12.6 +4.6 +7.9
  Jan 19, 2019 267   Arkansas St. W 77-64 87%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +4.2 +0.0 +4.5
  Jan 24, 2019 130   @ Georgia St. W 81-68 41%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +18.5 +17.1 +2.5
  Jan 26, 2019 127   @ Georgia Southern L 58-74 40%     15 - 4 6 - 2 -10.2 -12.6 +2.3
  Feb 02, 2019 166   Texas Arlington L 77-84 72%     15 - 5 6 - 3 -9.9 -3.5 -5.6
  Feb 07, 2019 199   Appalachian St. W 74-71 78%     16 - 5 7 - 3 -2.0 -3.1 +1.1
  Feb 09, 2019 158   Coastal Carolina W 65-57 71%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +5.5 -5.3 +11.2
  Feb 14, 2019 267   @ Arkansas St. W 84-74 74%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +6.7 +9.9 -3.0
  Feb 16, 2019 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 67-60 62%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +7.0 +3.2 +4.7
  Feb 21, 2019 154   Louisiana Monroe W 73-68 70%    
  Feb 23, 2019 190   Louisiana W 78-70 78%    
  Feb 28, 2019 237   @ Troy W 72-67 67%    
  Mar 02, 2019 218   @ South Alabama W 68-64 64%    
  Mar 09, 2019 166   @ Texas Arlington W 64-63 52%    
Projected Record 22.3 - 6.7 13.3 - 4.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.7 27.8 32.2 13.8 80.7 1st
2nd 1.1 7.6 3.7 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 2.3 0.1 4.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.7 5.0 16.7 31.6 32.2 13.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 13.8    13.8
14-4 100.0% 32.2    28.9 3.2 0.1
13-5 87.9% 27.8    13.3 11.7 2.7 0.2
12-6 40.1% 6.7    0.7 2.4 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 80.7% 80.7 56.7 17.3 5.3 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 13.8% 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.7 0.0%
14-4 32.2% 26.8% 26.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.8 4.7 3.0 0.1 23.6 0.0%
13-5 31.6% 22.8% 22.8% 13.7 0.1 2.4 4.1 0.6 24.4
12-6 16.7% 17.8% 17.8% 14.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 13.7
11-7 5.0% 14.1% 14.1% 14.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.3
10-8 0.7% 6.8% 6.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 2.5 9.6 9.8 1.5 0.0 76.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 12.6 0.2 6.4 37.7 47.9 7.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6% 0.1% 13.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 0.3%