Texas Tech
Big 12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.9#9
Achievement Rating+18.2#14
Pace66.0#261
Improvement-0.4#205

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#61
First Shot+5.7#36
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#291
Layup/Dunks+3.4#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement+1.4#111

Defense
Total Defense+12.9#1
First Shot+10.0#5
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#3
Layups/Dunks+6.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#38
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement-1.8#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 66.8% 76.9% 49.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 4.0 3.7 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 34.2% 48.3% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round86.4% 88.5% 82.7%
Sweet Sixteen54.1% 57.3% 48.7%
Elite Eight23.6% 26.1% 19.2%
Final Four10.4% 11.6% 8.4%
Championship Game4.2% 4.8% 3.2%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 1.1%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 339   Incarnate Word W 87-37 99%     1 - 0 +33.7 +6.7 +28.7
  Nov 09, 2018 350   Mississippi Valley W 84-52 99.7%    2 - 0 +11.6 +11.7 +3.2
  Nov 13, 2018 242   SE Louisiana W 59-40 98%     3 - 0 +11.5 -11.9 +24.4
  Nov 19, 2018 78   USC W 78-63 84%     4 - 0 +21.3 +6.3 +14.7
  Nov 20, 2018 35   Nebraska W 70-52 70%     5 - 0 +29.5 +8.3 +22.4
  Nov 24, 2018 183   Northern Colorado W 93-62 96%     6 - 0 +26.9 +20.3 +7.1
  Dec 01, 2018 76   Memphis W 78-67 84%     7 - 0 +17.4 +2.8 +13.9
  Dec 05, 2018 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 65-47 99%     8 - 0 +3.9 -11.0 +15.6
  Dec 12, 2018 331   Northwestern St. W 79-44 99%     9 - 0 +20.7 +0.9 +19.6
  Dec 15, 2018 169   Abilene Christian W 82-48 96%     10 - 0 +30.9 +15.3 +18.4
  Dec 20, 2018 1   Duke L 58-69 23%     10 - 1 +13.6 -12.6 +27.8
  Dec 28, 2018 186   UT Rio Grande Valley W 71-46 97%     11 - 1 +20.6 +4.7 +17.4
  Jan 02, 2019 105   @ West Virginia W 62-59 82%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +10.4 -7.0 +17.4
  Jan 05, 2019 25   Kansas St. W 63-57 73%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +16.5 +0.2 +16.4
  Jan 08, 2019 34   Oklahoma W 66-59 78%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +15.8 +1.9 +14.2
  Jan 12, 2019 27   @ Texas W 68-62 55%     15 - 1 4 - 0 +21.7 +9.0 +13.2
  Jan 16, 2019 12   Iowa St. L 64-68 63%     15 - 2 4 - 1 +9.4 -4.1 +13.6
  Jan 19, 2019 33   @ Baylor L 62-73 60%     15 - 3 4 - 2 +3.5 +0.5 +2.0
  Jan 22, 2019 25   @ Kansas St. L 45-58 54%     15 - 4 4 - 3 +3.0 -10.4 +11.6
  Jan 26, 2019 58   Arkansas W 67-64 86%     16 - 4 +8.2 -0.2 +8.5
  Jan 28, 2019 37   TCU W 84-65 79%     17 - 4 5 - 3 +27.5 +24.5 +5.1
  Feb 02, 2019 11   @ Kansas L 63-79 41%     17 - 5 5 - 4 +3.2 -2.2 +6.0
  Feb 04, 2019 105   West Virginia W 81-50 91%     18 - 5 6 - 4 +32.8 +3.6 +27.1
  Feb 09, 2019 34   @ Oklahoma W 66-54 60%     19 - 5 7 - 4 +26.4 +5.9 +21.1
  Feb 13, 2019 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-50 79%     20 - 5 8 - 4 +36.6 +20.1 +20.6
  Feb 16, 2019 33   Baylor W 86-61 78%     21 - 5 9 - 4 +33.9 +21.4 +13.9
  Feb 23, 2019 11   Kansas W 68-65 63%    
  Feb 27, 2019 86   Oklahoma St. W 71-57 91%    
  Mar 02, 2019 37   @ TCU W 68-65 60%    
  Mar 04, 2019 27   Texas W 67-60 74%    
  Mar 09, 2019 12   @ Iowa St. L 67-69 42%    
Projected Record 24.3 - 6.7 12.3 - 5.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.3 19.8 11.1 34.2 1st
2nd 0.8 13.7 11.8 0.7 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.5 13.4 1.2 20.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 10.1 3.4 15.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 4.1 17.2 33.8 32.7 11.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 94.0% 11.1    8.2 2.9
13-5 60.5% 19.8    4.3 9.5 5.2 0.8
12-6 9.7% 3.3    0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.2% 34.2 12.6 13.0 6.6 1.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 11.8% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.5 1.1 5.0 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 32.7% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 3.5 0.0 3.6 13.6 11.6 3.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 33.8% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 4.3 0.4 6.4 13.6 10.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 17.2% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 5.0 0.0 1.0 4.5 6.1 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 4.1% 99.9% 16.0% 84.0% 6.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 0.3% 99.7% 9.8% 89.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 4.0 1.1 8.9 25.4 31.3 20.8 9.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.9% 100.0% 1.8 27.9 62.3 9.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1% 100.0% 2.6 1.1 45.8 45.8 7.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4% 100.0% 2.9 0.2 31.0 52.8 15.2 0.8 0.0
Lose Out 0.1% 99.2% 8.4 2.3 17.6 34.4 34.4 8.4 1.5 0.8