Texas Tech
Big 12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#12
Achievement Rating+21.0#12
Pace66.0#275
Improvement-1.0#253

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#47
First Shot+8.0#13
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#330
Layup/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#201
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement-0.6#219

Defense
Total Defense+10.5#3
First Shot+7.0#21
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#12
Layups/Dunks+7.7#5
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#231
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement-0.5#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 9.7% 10.0% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 50.6% 51.6% 26.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.6% 91.1% 79.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.6% 89.1% 76.2%
Average Seed 4.6 4.5 5.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.7% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.2% 85.6% 75.5%
Conference Champion 23.2% 23.6% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.2% 2.5%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 3.7%
First Round89.7% 90.2% 77.6%
Second Round71.0% 71.7% 54.1%
Sweet Sixteen42.3% 42.9% 27.9%
Elite Eight21.6% 22.0% 13.0%
Final Four10.3% 10.5% 6.0%
Championship Game4.8% 4.9% 2.3%
National Champion2.1% 2.1% 0.8%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 338   Incarnate Word W 87-37 99%     1 - 0 +34.0 +7.4 +28.3
  Nov 09, 2018 346   Mississippi Valley W 84-52 99.6%    2 - 0 +12.9 +10.4 +5.8
  Nov 13, 2018 298   SE Louisiana W 59-40 98%     3 - 0 +8.5 -11.8 +21.2
  Nov 19, 2018 95   USC W 78-63 83%     4 - 0 +20.6 +5.8 +14.4
  Nov 20, 2018 16   Nebraska W 70-52 56%     5 - 0 +32.1 +7.7 +25.6
  Nov 24, 2018 138   Northern Colorado W 93-62 93%     6 - 0 +30.0 +19.7 +10.8
  Dec 01, 2018 114   Memphis W 78-67 86%     7 - 0 +15.0 +1.7 +12.7
  Dec 05, 2018 323   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 65-47 99%     8 - 0 +4.4 -10.4 +15.7
  Dec 12, 2018 347   Northwestern St. W 79-44 99.6%    9 - 0 +15.8 -1.0 +16.7
  Dec 15, 2018 164   Abilene Christian W 74-55 96%    
  Dec 20, 2018 1   Duke L 70-78 24%    
  Dec 28, 2018 221   UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-56 98%    
  Jan 02, 2019 38   @ West Virginia W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 05, 2019 26   Kansas St. W 65-59 71%    
  Jan 08, 2019 25   Oklahoma W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 12, 2019 42   @ Texas W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 16, 2019 21   Iowa St. W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 19, 2019 84   @ Baylor W 67-61 72%    
  Jan 22, 2019 26   @ Kansas St. L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 26, 2019 58   Arkansas W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 28, 2019 29   TCU W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 02, 2019 4   @ Kansas L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 04, 2019 38   West Virginia W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 09, 2019 25   @ Oklahoma L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 13, 2019 73   @ Oklahoma St. W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 16, 2019 84   Baylor W 70-58 87%    
  Feb 23, 2019 4   Kansas L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 27, 2019 73   Oklahoma St. W 73-61 85%    
  Mar 02, 2019 29   @ TCU W 69-68 50%    
  Mar 04, 2019 42   Texas W 68-60 77%    
  Mar 09, 2019 21   @ Iowa St. L 69-70 47%    
Projected Record 23.3 - 7.7 11.3 - 6.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 6.5 5.7 3.3 1.3 0.3 23.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.3 7.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.8 5.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.6 9.5 12.4 14.1 14.5 13.1 10.2 6.6 3.4 1.3 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.1% 3.3    3.1 0.3
15-3 86.4% 5.7    4.5 1.2 0.0
14-4 63.4% 6.5    3.9 2.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 34.5% 4.5    1.7 2.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 10.8% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 15.0 6.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 59.0% 41.0% 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.4% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.6% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.7 3.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.2% 100.0% 28.4% 71.5% 2.2 2.0 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.1% 99.9% 23.3% 76.6% 3.0 0.6 4.3 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 14.5% 99.7% 18.9% 80.8% 4.0 0.1 1.7 4.2 4.1 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
11-7 14.1% 98.9% 14.2% 84.7% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.2 3.6 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.7%
10-8 12.4% 97.1% 11.0% 86.1% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.9 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 96.7%
9-9 9.5% 92.4% 9.3% 83.1% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 91.6%
8-10 6.6% 71.8% 5.7% 66.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 70.1%
7-11 4.1% 39.8% 4.0% 35.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 37.3%
6-12 2.3% 13.7% 2.7% 11.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 11.3%
5-13 1.1% 4.2% 2.3% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0%
4-14 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2%
3-15 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 90.6% 17.8% 72.8% 4.6 9.7 14.9 14.2 11.9 10.6 8.6 6.4 4.9 3.7 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.4 88.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0