The Citadel
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#278
Achievement Rating-4.8#234
Pace86.6#4
Improvement-7.3#349

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#171
First Shot+2.0#127
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#292
Layup/Dunks+0.8#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#12
Freethrows-2.5#322
Improvement-6.5#349

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#340
First Shot-5.3#321
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#311
Layups/Dunks+0.4#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#341
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement-0.8#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.1% 3.7% 18.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 30   @ Clemson L 80-100 3%     0 - 1 -4.9 +7.3 -9.6
  Nov 16, 2018 27   @ Texas L 69-97 3%     0 - 2 -12.3 -4.3 -4.8
  Nov 20, 2018 258   @ James Madison W 91-82 36%     1 - 2 +6.1 +4.0 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2018 118   @ South Florida W 84-81 11%     2 - 2 +9.6 +14.1 -4.7
  Nov 27, 2018 225   High Point W 112-87 50%     3 - 2 +18.4 +28.8 -12.6
  Dec 01, 2018 192   Mercer W 79-69 42%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +5.3 +0.4 +4.6
  Dec 15, 2018 315   Southeast Missouri St. W 86-74 71%     5 - 2 -0.3 -2.2 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2018 213   @ Campbell W 82-76 28%     6 - 2 +5.6 +0.4 +4.8
  Dec 29, 2018 294   Longwood L 94-110 64%     6 - 3 -26.2 +2.5 -26.2
  Jan 03, 2019 39   @ Wofford L 81-112 4%     6 - 4 1 - 1 -17.3 +5.3 -20.1
  Jan 05, 2019 64   @ Furman L 85-101 7%     6 - 5 1 - 2 -5.9 +6.0 -9.4
  Jan 10, 2019 93   East Tennessee St. L 73-98 19%     6 - 6 1 - 3 -22.5 -6.7 -13.1
  Jan 12, 2019 289   Western Carolina L 82-94 63%     6 - 7 1 - 4 -22.0 -15.1 -4.2
  Jan 17, 2019 174   @ Samford L 77-80 20%     6 - 8 1 - 5 -0.8 +6.3 -7.2
  Jan 19, 2019 292   @ Chattanooga L 71-73 42%     6 - 9 1 - 6 -6.6 -6.8 +0.2
  Jan 24, 2019 110   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-83 11%     6 - 10 1 - 7 -16.1 -12.6 -1.8
  Jan 26, 2019 318   VMI W 84-82 72%     7 - 10 2 - 7 -10.8 -4.6 -6.4
  Jan 31, 2019 64   Furman L 61-71 15%     7 - 11 2 - 8 -5.4 -7.4 +2.0
  Feb 02, 2019 39   Wofford L 61-99 9%     7 - 12 2 - 9 -29.8 -7.6 -24.3
  Feb 09, 2019 192   @ Mercer W 67-61 24%     8 - 12 3 - 9 +6.8 -7.2 +14.0
  Feb 14, 2019 93   @ East Tennessee St. L 83-91 9%     8 - 13 3 - 10 +0.1 +14.7 -14.7
  Feb 16, 2019 289   @ Western Carolina L 82-103 42%     8 - 14 3 - 11 -25.5 -2.6 -20.7
  Feb 21, 2019 292   Chattanooga W 86-82 64%    
  Feb 23, 2019 174   Samford L 85-88 39%    
  Feb 28, 2019 110   UNC Greensboro L 77-85 23%    
  Mar 02, 2019 318   @ VMI W 90-89 52%    
Projected Record 9.8 - 16.2 4.8 - 13.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.4 2.1 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 7.3 1.6 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 6.3 9.9 0.1 16.5 7th
8th 7.9 27.4 1.9 37.2 8th
9th 7.8 22.2 3.4 0.0 33.4 9th
10th 1.5 0.1 1.6 10th
Total 9.3 30.4 37.1 19.5 3.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 19.4
5-13 37.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 37.1
4-14 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 30.4
3-15 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 5.8%