The Citadel
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#184
Achievement Rating+8.2#81
Pace91.5#4
Improvement+3.2#17

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#61
First Shot+5.7#35
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#244
Layup/Dunks+0.8#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#4
Freethrows-0.3#194
Improvement+1.8#45

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#324
First Shot-4.0#289
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#299
Layups/Dunks-1.3#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#275
Freethrows-0.2#183
Improvement+1.4#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.4% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 67.6% 74.0% 46.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 63.4% 50.6%
Conference Champion 3.4% 3.9% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.6% 3.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.9% 4.4% 2.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 49   @ Clemson L 80-100 10%     0 - 1 -7.4 +3.4 -8.3
  Nov 16, 2018 42   @ Texas L 69-97 9%     0 - 2 -14.7 -1.9 -9.5
  Nov 20, 2018 233   @ James Madison W 91-82 50%     1 - 2 +7.5 +6.4 -0.1
  Nov 24, 2018 193   @ South Florida W 84-81 40%     2 - 2 +4.1 +10.2 -6.2
  Nov 27, 2018 248   High Point W 112-87 74%     3 - 2 +16.9 +26.8 -12.0
  Dec 01, 2018 213   Mercer W 79-69 67%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +4.0 +2.2 +1.5
  Dec 15, 2018 272   Southeast Missouri St. W 92-84 77%    
  Dec 18, 2018 242   @ Campbell W 90-89 52%    
  Dec 29, 2018 300   Longwood W 85-76 80%    
  Jan 03, 2019 67   @ Wofford L 79-91 14%    
  Jan 05, 2019 112   @ Furman L 83-92 21%    
  Jan 10, 2019 126   East Tennessee St. L 82-84 44%    
  Jan 12, 2019 295   Western Carolina W 95-86 80%    
  Jan 17, 2019 189   @ Samford L 88-91 40%    
  Jan 19, 2019 314   @ Chattanooga W 86-81 67%    
  Jan 24, 2019 89   @ UNC Greensboro L 82-92 18%    
  Jan 26, 2019 321   VMI W 94-82 86%    
  Jan 31, 2019 112   Furman L 86-89 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 67   Wofford L 82-88 31%    
  Feb 09, 2019 213   @ Mercer L 81-82 45%    
  Feb 14, 2019 126   @ East Tennessee St. L 79-87 25%    
  Feb 16, 2019 295   @ Western Carolina W 92-89 61%    
  Feb 21, 2019 314   Chattanooga W 89-78 83%    
  Feb 23, 2019 189   Samford W 91-88 61%    
  Feb 28, 2019 89   UNC Greensboro L 85-89 36%    
  Mar 02, 2019 321   @ VMI W 91-85 70%    
Projected Record 14.3 - 11.7 9.2 - 8.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.5 6.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.8 7.0 2.2 0.2 21.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.7 7.2 5.0 1.3 0.1 19.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.9 5.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.3 7.6 11.1 13.6 15.0 14.5 11.9 8.8 5.5 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 95.2% 0.4    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 75.9% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 40.8% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 46.0% 33.6% 12.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18.7%
16-2 0.4% 38.3% 31.9% 6.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.4%
15-3 1.3% 21.7% 20.1% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0%
14-4 2.9% 17.3% 16.6% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.7%
13-5 5.5% 11.8% 11.7% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.1%
12-6 8.8% 7.4% 7.3% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0%
11-7 11.9% 4.9% 4.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.4
10-8 14.5% 3.2% 3.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 14.0
9-9 15.0% 2.1% 2.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.7
8-10 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.4
7-11 11.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 11.1
6-12 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.6
5-13 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-14 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 96.0 0.1%