UC Davis
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#222
Achievement Rating-9.2#278
Pace65.8#283
Improvement+1.6#69

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#327
First Shot-5.9#315
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#210
Layup/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-3.4#319
Improvement-0.7#228

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#86
First Shot+0.6#150
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#37
Layups/Dunks+2.6#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#212
Freethrows-1.2#246
Improvement+2.3#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 7.9% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 9.7% 26.6% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.8% 67.6% 53.1%
Conference Champion 4.5% 8.3% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.0% 6.2%
First Four2.5% 2.1% 2.5%
First Round4.1% 7.2% 4.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 4.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 47   San Francisco L 42-76 17%     0 - 1 -27.2 -24.3 -3.5
  Nov 09, 2018 71   San Diego L 57-76 24%     0 - 2 -15.0 -11.0 -5.0
  Nov 12, 2018 58   @ Arkansas L 58-81 9%     0 - 3 -11.4 -15.0 +6.0
  Nov 17, 2018 298   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 57-54 66%     1 - 3 -4.8 -17.7 +12.8
  Nov 18, 2018 252   @ Texas Arlington L 59-68 45%     1 - 4 -11.3 -8.5 -3.4
  Nov 20, 2018 227   Sacramento St. L 55-58 52%     1 - 5 -7.1 -18.5 +11.4
  Nov 23, 2018 24   @ Indiana L 62-76 5%     1 - 6 +1.9 +3.3 -2.6
  Nov 29, 2018 319   Northern Arizona W 73-57 81%     2 - 6 +3.2 -6.4 +9.9
  Dec 05, 2018 164   @ Northern Illinois L 62-71 27%     2 - 7 -6.1 -13.0 +6.7
  Dec 22, 2018 40   @ Arizona L 56-74 5%    
  Dec 28, 2018 135   @ Loyola Marymount L 56-65 20%    
  Dec 30, 2018 92   @ USC L 62-74 13%    
  Jan 10, 2019 98   @ UC Irvine L 55-67 14%    
  Jan 12, 2019 195   @ Long Beach St. L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 17, 2019 147   UC Santa Barbara L 61-62 45%    
  Jan 19, 2019 306   Cal Poly W 67-59 77%    
  Jan 26, 2019 186   @ Hawaii L 60-65 32%    
  Feb 02, 2019 293   @ UC Riverside W 62-61 53%    
  Feb 07, 2019 306   @ Cal Poly W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 09, 2019 147   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-65 25%    
  Feb 13, 2019 326   Cal St. Northridge W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 16, 2019 195   Long Beach St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 21, 2019 167   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 326   @ Cal St. Northridge W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 28, 2019 98   UC Irvine L 58-64 30%    
  Mar 02, 2019 167   Cal St. Fullerton L 64-65 50%    
  Mar 07, 2019 186   Hawaii W 63-62 54%    
  Mar 09, 2019 293   UC Riverside W 65-58 73%    
Projected Record 10.1 - 17.9 7.8 - 8.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.3 6.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.2 7.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 17.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.2 6.7 2.0 0.1 16.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.9 4.4 1.1 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.5 9.1 12.5 15.1 15.4 13.9 10.8 7.1 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 94.3% 0.6    0.5 0.1
13-3 72.9% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-4 39.4% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-5 9.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 35.6% 35.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.7% 23.5% 23.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-3 1.8% 22.2% 22.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4
12-4 4.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.4
11-5 7.1% 12.0% 12.0% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 6.3
10-6 10.8% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.1 0.7 9.9
9-7 13.9% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.1 0.7 13.1
8-8 15.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 14.8
7-9 15.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 14.7
6-10 12.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.3
5-11 9.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.0
4-12 5.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-13 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-14 1.0% 1.0
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%