UC Davis
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#207
Achievement Rating-3.8#215
Pace65.8#267
Improvement+5.0#20

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#278
First Shot-1.8#234
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#288
Layup/Dunks+1.9#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
Freethrows-1.8#297
Improvement+5.5#10

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#147
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#65
Layups/Dunks+1.3#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement-0.6#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 9.0% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 2.5% 7.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 98.4% 84.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 2.1% 2.9%
First Round5.7% 8.2% 4.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 61   San Francisco L 42-76 23%     0 - 1 -29.1 -27.8 -2.0
  Nov 09, 2018 103   San Diego L 57-76 32%     0 - 2 -17.0 -11.3 -6.7
  Nov 12, 2018 58   @ Arkansas L 58-81 11%     0 - 3 -12.3 -14.7 +4.7
  Nov 17, 2018 282   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 57-54 65%     1 - 3 -3.8 -18.4 +14.5
  Nov 18, 2018 175   @ Texas Arlington L 59-68 31%     1 - 4 -6.8 -5.5 -1.9
  Nov 20, 2018 264   Sacramento St. L 55-58 62%     1 - 5 -8.9 -19.7 +10.8
  Nov 23, 2018 45   @ Indiana L 62-76 9%     1 - 6 -1.7 +1.7 -4.6
  Nov 29, 2018 307   Northern Arizona W 73-57 79%     2 - 6 +4.8 -6.3 +11.3
  Dec 05, 2018 150   @ Northern Illinois L 62-71 27%     2 - 7 -5.5 -8.8 +3.1
  Dec 22, 2018 84   @ Arizona L 68-70 14%     2 - 8 +6.7 +9.6 -3.1
  Dec 28, 2018 143   @ Loyola Marymount L 59-77 24%     2 - 9 -13.5 -3.4 -12.0
  Dec 30, 2018 78   @ USC L 55-73 14%     2 - 10 -9.0 -7.6 -3.4
  Jan 10, 2019 107   @ UC Irvine L 69-71 17%     2 - 11 0 - 1 +5.2 -2.5 +7.9
  Jan 12, 2019 221   @ Long Beach St. L 77-82 42%     2 - 12 0 - 2 -5.6 +1.9 -7.5
  Jan 17, 2019 172   UC Santa Barbara L 58-69 52%     2 - 13 0 - 3 -14.3 -10.4 -5.2
  Jan 19, 2019 329   Cal Poly W 75-63 85%     3 - 13 1 - 3 -2.1 -0.9 -0.8
  Jan 26, 2019 160   @ Hawaii L 60-80 30%     3 - 14 1 - 4 -17.3 -11.1 -6.2
  Feb 02, 2019 311   @ UC Riverside W 84-71 62%     4 - 14 2 - 4 +7.0 +12.8 -4.8
  Feb 07, 2019 329   @ Cal Poly W 63-53 71%     5 - 14 3 - 4 +1.4 -7.0 +9.3
  Feb 09, 2019 172   @ UC Santa Barbara W 61-57 31%     6 - 14 4 - 4 +6.3 -2.8 +9.6
  Feb 13, 2019 276   Cal St. Northridge W 76-59 74%     7 - 14 5 - 4 +7.7 +0.4 +8.5
  Feb 16, 2019 221   Long Beach St. W 77-73 63%     8 - 14 6 - 4 -2.2 +0.0 -2.2
  Feb 21, 2019 159   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 276   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 28, 2019 107   UC Irvine L 61-65 34%    
  Mar 02, 2019 159   Cal St. Fullerton L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 07, 2019 160   Hawaii W 66-65 51%    
  Mar 09, 2019 311   UC Riverside W 70-61 80%    
Projected Record 11.0 - 17.0 9.0 - 7.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 4.0 8.3 1.7 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.6 15.0 1.2 22.0 3rd
4th 0.3 6.6 17.9 3.6 28.5 4th
5th 0.3 7.5 16.9 6.7 31.4 5th
6th 1.0 2.3 0.3 3.6 6th
7th 0.4 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.7 10.1 24.0 30.3 22.6 9.5 1.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.8% 15.7% 15.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-5 9.5% 12.9% 12.9% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 8.3
10-6 22.6% 9.5% 9.5% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.5 20.5
9-7 30.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.1 1.6 28.6
8-8 24.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0 23.0
7-9 10.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 9.8
6-10 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.5 4.0 45.7 47.8 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 1.3%