UC Irvine
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#98
Achievement Rating+12.2#48
Pace64.8#305
Improvement-0.9#239

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#161
First Shot+0.9#160
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#200
Layup/Dunks+0.9#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#269
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement-1.7#314

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#49
First Shot+3.9#57
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#95
Layups/Dunks+5.6#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#168
Freethrows+1.3#118
Improvement+0.9#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.4% 45.2% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 98.8% 97.4%
Conference Champion 62.4% 63.3% 53.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round44.1% 44.8% 37.2%
Second Round8.4% 8.7% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.4% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 284   Idaho W 86-68 91%     1 - 0 +8.1 +15.9 -5.9
  Nov 09, 2018 86   @ Texas A&M W 74-73 37%     2 - 0 +9.9 +7.7 +2.2
  Nov 15, 2018 272   @ Santa Clara W 61-49 79%     3 - 0 +8.9 -10.7 +20.0
  Nov 19, 2018 188   Texas San Antonio W 65-56 82%     4 - 0 +4.5 -8.2 +12.8
  Nov 20, 2018 218   @ Tulane W 67-55 70%     5 - 0 +11.9 -0.4 +13.1
  Nov 21, 2018 75   Toledo L 60-67 45%     5 - 1 -0.5 -7.8 +7.0
  Nov 28, 2018 52   @ St. Mary's W 80-75 25%     6 - 1 +17.4 +15.5 +2.2
  Dec 01, 2018 51   Utah St. L 65-89 45%     6 - 2 -17.5 -5.4 -11.8
  Dec 05, 2018 237   @ California Baptist W 69-66 75%     7 - 2 +1.4 -3.8 +5.3
  Dec 08, 2018 112   Montana W 60-51 65%     8 - 2 +10.4 -4.2 +16.0
  Dec 15, 2018 261   Denver W 74-60 91%    
  Dec 19, 2018 182   @ Eastern Michigan W 66-62 64%    
  Dec 21, 2018 37   @ Butler L 61-70 19%    
  Dec 29, 2018 163   @ Pacific W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 03, 2019 224   UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 10, 2019 222   UC Davis W 67-55 86%    
  Jan 12, 2019 167   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 16, 2019 195   Long Beach St. W 76-66 83%    
  Jan 19, 2019 326   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-66 89%    
  Jan 23, 2019 186   @ Hawaii W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 26, 2019 293   UC Riverside W 71-55 92%    
  Jan 31, 2019 147   @ UC Santa Barbara W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 02, 2019 195   @ Long Beach St. W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 06, 2019 167   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-62 78%    
  Feb 09, 2019 186   Hawaii W 69-59 81%    
  Feb 16, 2019 147   UC Santa Barbara W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 21, 2019 306   Cal Poly W 73-56 93%    
  Feb 28, 2019 222   @ UC Davis W 64-58 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 293   @ UC Riverside W 68-58 81%    
  Mar 07, 2019 306   @ Cal Poly W 70-59 83%    
  Mar 09, 2019 326   Cal St. Northridge W 82-63 96%    
Projected Record 23.7 - 7.3 12.5 - 3.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.5 9.4 16.5 17.7 11.8 4.2 62.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 7.0 7.4 3.3 0.5 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.3 7.9 12.7 17.5 19.9 18.2 11.8 4.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
15-1 100.0% 11.8    11.7 0.1
14-2 97.1% 17.7    16.0 1.7 0.0
13-3 83.2% 16.5    11.9 4.4 0.2 0.0
12-4 53.8% 9.4    4.3 4.1 1.0 0.0
11-5 19.6% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 62.4% 62.4 48.6 11.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.2% 70.7% 66.7% 4.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.2 12.0%
15-1 11.8% 62.1% 60.1% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.5 4.8%
14-2 18.2% 54.8% 54.1% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.3 1.2 0.1 8.2 1.5%
13-3 19.9% 47.0% 46.8% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.5 0.4%
12-4 17.5% 40.2% 40.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.4 0.1%
11-5 12.7% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.8 0.0 8.5 0.0%
10-6 7.9% 26.7% 26.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 5.8
9-7 4.3% 20.9% 20.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.4
8-8 2.1% 16.6% 16.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
7-9 0.9% 13.1% 13.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
6-10 0.3% 13.8% 13.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 44.4% 43.9% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.1 11.4 15.6 10.3 3.1 0.3 55.6 1.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.6 1.0 0.5 1.4 5.3 6.7 18.8 41.8 23.3 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 43.0% 11.0 3.8 2.5 5.1 15.2 12.7 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 23.6% 10.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 4.2 1.4