UC Irvine
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#107
Achievement Rating+10.7#49
Pace64.6#295
Improvement-0.8#222

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#181
First Shot-1.8#233
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#57
Layup/Dunks+2.1#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows-1.6#284
Improvement+1.1#123

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#56
First Shot+4.0#58
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#122
Layups/Dunks+5.0#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#78
Freethrows-1.1#248
Improvement-1.9#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.5% 44.8% 38.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.7% 99.8% 96.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round44.5% 44.7% 38.5%
Second Round6.4% 6.5% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 344   Idaho W 86-68 97%     1 - 0 +0.4 +12.0 -9.7
  Nov 09, 2018 85   @ Texas A&M W 74-73 34%     2 - 0 +9.7 +7.9 +1.8
  Nov 15, 2018 189   @ Santa Clara W 61-49 63%     3 - 0 +13.0 -8.1 +21.5
  Nov 19, 2018 134   Texas San Antonio W 65-56 69%     4 - 0 +8.4 -8.4 +16.9
  Nov 20, 2018 290   @ Tulane W 67-55 80%     5 - 0 +7.5 -0.8 +9.2
  Nov 21, 2018 67   Toledo L 60-67 40%     5 - 1 +0.1 -6.3 +6.1
  Nov 28, 2018 53   @ St. Mary's W 80-75 24%     6 - 1 +16.9 +14.6 +2.5
  Dec 01, 2018 49   Utah St. L 65-89 42%     6 - 2 -17.4 -5.9 -11.3
  Dec 05, 2018 217   @ California Baptist W 69-66 68%     7 - 2 +2.5 -4.6 +7.2
  Dec 08, 2018 109   Montana W 60-51 61%     8 - 2 +10.5 -3.6 +15.4
  Dec 15, 2018 297   Denver W 86-52 91%     9 - 2 +23.5 +7.2 +16.9
  Dec 19, 2018 149   @ Eastern Michigan W 52-48 52%     10 - 2 +8.0 -9.6 +18.2
  Dec 21, 2018 46   @ Butler L 54-71 23%     10 - 3 -4.8 -10.6 +4.8
  Dec 29, 2018 187   @ Pacific L 75-84 62%     10 - 4 -7.8 -4.9 -1.9
  Jan 03, 2019 186   UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-74 80%     11 - 4 +6.6 +8.2 -2.3
  Jan 10, 2019 207   UC Davis W 71-69 83%     12 - 4 1 - 0 -3.5 -7.2 +3.5
  Jan 12, 2019 159   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 63-46 56%     13 - 4 2 - 0 +19.9 -3.1 +23.6
  Jan 16, 2019 221   Long Beach St. L 70-80 84%     13 - 5 2 - 1 -16.2 -4.2 -12.3
  Jan 19, 2019 276   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-68 78%     14 - 5 3 - 1 +2.2 +3.6 -0.8
  Jan 23, 2019 160   @ Hawaii W 75-74 57%     15 - 5 4 - 1 +3.7 -0.5 +4.2
  Jan 26, 2019 311   UC Riverside W 82-64 92%     16 - 5 5 - 1 +6.5 +14.5 -5.2
  Jan 31, 2019 172   @ UC Santa Barbara W 66-62 58%     17 - 5 6 - 1 +6.3 -3.9 +10.3
  Feb 02, 2019 221   @ Long Beach St. W 82-80 69%     18 - 5 7 - 1 +1.4 +6.7 -5.4
  Feb 06, 2019 159   Cal St. Fullerton W 60-53 75%     19 - 5 8 - 1 +4.4 -9.8 +14.3
  Feb 09, 2019 160   Hawaii W 67-56 76%     20 - 5 9 - 1 +8.2 +4.7 +5.4
  Feb 16, 2019 172   UC Santa Barbara W 83-70 77%     21 - 5 10 - 1 +9.7 +11.1 -0.8
  Feb 21, 2019 329   Cal Poly W 72-53 96%    
  Feb 28, 2019 207   @ UC Davis W 65-61 66%    
  Mar 02, 2019 311   @ UC Riverside W 70-60 83%    
  Mar 07, 2019 329   @ Cal Poly W 69-56 88%    
  Mar 09, 2019 276   Cal St. Northridge W 80-66 90%    
Projected Record 25.2 - 5.8 14.2 - 1.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.3 14.0 40.1 43.2 99.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 2.5 14.0 40.1 43.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 43.2    43.2
14-2 100.0% 40.1    40.1
13-3 100.0% 14.0    12.7 1.3
12-4 91.9% 2.3    1.3 0.9 0.0
11-5 58.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 14.3% 0.0    0.0
9-7
8-8
Total 99.7% 99.7 97.3 2.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 43.2% 48.4% 48.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.7 10.2 7.2 0.7 0.0 22.3 0.4%
14-2 40.1% 43.3% 43.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 3.4 10.2 3.5 0.1 22.8 0.0%
13-3 14.0% 38.5% 38.5% 13.4 0.0 0.3 2.7 2.2 0.1 8.6
12-4 2.5% 33.0% 33.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.6
11-5 0.2% 32.2% 32.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
10-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 44.5% 44.5% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 14.0 20.4 6.9 0.3 55.5 0.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.8% 100.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 12.8 48.8 34.5 3.2 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.2% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.0% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0