UC Riverside
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#311
Achievement Rating-9.9#306
Pace62.0#333
Improvement+0.5#170

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#249
First Shot-0.4#192
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#308
Layup/Dunks-4.0#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#14
Freethrows-3.1#332
Improvement+4.1#27

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#333
First Shot-7.4#349
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#76
Layups/Dunks-5.8#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
Freethrows-1.3#259
Improvement-3.7#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 1.6% 9.7%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 75   @ Oregon St. L 59-72 6%     0 - 1 -3.6 -5.5 +0.7
  Nov 10, 2018 291   @ Portland St. L 64-71 34%     0 - 2 -11.6 -16.5 +5.2
  Nov 13, 2018 151   @ UNLV L 51-72 13%     0 - 3 -17.5 -18.6 -0.6
  Nov 22, 2018 187   @ Pacific L 54-74 18%     0 - 4 -18.8 -15.4 -4.3
  Nov 23, 2018 316   @ Elon W 77-64 43%     1 - 4 +6.1 +4.7 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2018 169   Abilene Christian L 48-60 29%     1 - 5 -15.1 -15.0 -2.6
  Nov 29, 2018 217   California Baptist L 70-80 39%     1 - 6 -16.0 -6.8 -9.5
  Dec 02, 2018 184   @ Valparaiso L 73-82 17%     1 - 7 -7.6 +10.7 -19.4
  Dec 06, 2018 161   Pepperdine W 75-71 29%     2 - 7 +1.1 +4.3 -3.0
  Dec 16, 2018 266   @ UTEP L 56-68 29%     2 - 8 -15.1 -10.9 -4.7
  Dec 22, 2018 143   Loyola Marymount W 60-53 23%     3 - 8 +6.0 -3.4 +10.3
  Dec 28, 2018 239   @ Air Force L 60-72 25%     3 - 9 -13.8 -6.7 -8.4
  Dec 30, 2018 263   @ Western Michigan L 64-73 29%     3 - 10 -12.1 -8.4 -4.1
  Jan 09, 2019 276   Cal St. Northridge L 83-84 52%     3 - 11 0 - 1 -10.3 +4.5 -14.9
  Jan 12, 2019 172   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-72 15%     3 - 12 0 - 2 -5.7 +0.3 -7.2
  Jan 17, 2019 159   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-69 14%     3 - 13 0 - 3 -5.1 -1.4 -4.6
  Jan 19, 2019 160   Hawaii W 75-71 28%     4 - 13 1 - 3 +1.2 +13.2 -11.4
  Jan 23, 2019 329   @ Cal Poly W 74-51 49%     5 - 13 2 - 3 +14.4 +6.8 +10.3
  Jan 26, 2019 107   @ UC Irvine L 64-82 8%     5 - 14 2 - 4 -10.8 +7.2 -20.9
  Jan 31, 2019 329   Cal Poly L 45-71 70%     5 - 15 2 - 5 -40.1 -20.1 -27.9
  Feb 02, 2019 207   UC Davis L 71-84 38%     5 - 16 2 - 6 -18.5 +3.1 -22.6
  Feb 09, 2019 159   Cal St. Fullerton L 54-77 28%     5 - 17 2 - 7 -25.6 -15.5 -10.8
  Feb 14, 2019 172   UC Santa Barbara W 71-57 30%     6 - 17 3 - 7 +10.7 +0.4 +11.3
  Feb 16, 2019 160   @ Hawaii L 64-87 14%     6 - 18 3 - 8 -20.3 +0.6 -23.6
  Feb 23, 2019 221   Long Beach St. L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 27, 2019 276   @ Cal St. Northridge L 72-77 31%    
  Mar 02, 2019 107   UC Irvine L 60-70 17%    
  Mar 06, 2019 221   @ Long Beach St. L 70-78 22%    
  Mar 09, 2019 207   @ UC Davis L 61-70 20%    
Projected Record 7.3 - 21.7 4.3 - 11.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 1.7 6.5 1.5 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 2.7 15.6 3.3 0.0 21.6 7th
8th 22.2 34.9 9.4 0.1 66.6 8th
9th 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
Total 23.2 37.8 26.7 10.1 2.1 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-9 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-10 10.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.9
5-11 26.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 26.5
4-12 37.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 37.6
3-13 23.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 21.7%