UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#172
Achievement Rating+1.0#153
Pace62.2#330
Improvement-1.8#267

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#154
First Shot-0.6#196
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#81
Layup/Dunks-0.9#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#296
Freethrows+2.3#39
Improvement-1.8#266

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#199
First Shot-0.6#194
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#243
Layups/Dunks+0.6#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#28
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 14.0% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 98.7% 86.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.2% 13.9% 9.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 59.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 298   @ Wyoming W 76-66 67%     1 - 0 +4.9 +2.4 +2.5
  Nov 11, 2018 194   @ North Dakota St. L 63-82 45%     1 - 1 -18.3 -9.9 -9.0
  Nov 17, 2018 227   Montana St. W 88-69 73%     2 - 1 +12.3 +18.0 -3.7
  Nov 23, 2018 291   Portland St. W 76-69 75%     3 - 1 -0.4 -8.3 +7.4
  Nov 24, 2018 344   Idaho W 66-55 90%     4 - 1 -3.8 -7.7 +5.2
  Nov 29, 2018 264   Sacramento St. W 75-58 78%     5 - 1 +8.3 +4.8 +4.8
  Dec 02, 2018 36   @ Washington L 63-67 9%     5 - 2 +10.1 -1.3 +11.4
  Dec 08, 2018 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 55-45 89%     6 - 2 -4.1 -12.4 +10.3
  Dec 15, 2018 254   @ Rice W 99-89 59%     7 - 2 +7.3 +18.0 -11.4
  Dec 19, 2018 171   @ Nebraska Omaha L 74-85 39%     7 - 3 -8.6 +3.6 -13.2
  Dec 22, 2018 313   Idaho St. W 84-65 85%     8 - 3 +7.3 +7.8 +0.8
  Dec 29, 2018 61   San Francisco W 73-71 30%     9 - 3 +6.9 +14.0 -6.7
  Jan 09, 2019 329   Cal Poly W 65-56 89%     10 - 3 1 - 0 -5.1 -5.8 +1.8
  Jan 12, 2019 311   UC Riverside W 72-64 85%     11 - 3 2 - 0 -3.5 +1.5 -4.0
  Jan 17, 2019 207   @ UC Davis W 69-58 48%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +11.0 +6.7 +5.6
  Jan 24, 2019 159   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 60-81 37%     12 - 4 3 - 1 -18.1 -4.9 -14.5
  Jan 26, 2019 221   @ Long Beach St. W 82-71 51%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +10.4 +10.7 +0.0
  Jan 31, 2019 107   UC Irvine L 62-66 42%     13 - 5 4 - 2 -2.3 -5.1 +2.6
  Feb 02, 2019 160   @ Hawaii W 75-54 38%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +23.7 +10.3 +15.2
  Feb 06, 2019 276   Cal St. Northridge W 70-64 80%     15 - 5 6 - 2 -3.3 -5.5 +2.7
  Feb 09, 2019 207   UC Davis L 57-61 69%     15 - 6 6 - 3 -9.5 -8.2 -2.0
  Feb 14, 2019 311   @ UC Riverside L 57-71 70%     15 - 7 6 - 4 -20.0 -16.9 -4.0
  Feb 16, 2019 107   @ UC Irvine L 70-83 23%     15 - 8 6 - 5 -5.8 +6.0 -12.3
  Feb 21, 2019 160   Hawaii W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 23, 2019 159   Cal St. Fullerton W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 28, 2019 221   Long Beach St. W 76-70 71%    
  Mar 07, 2019 276   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-73 61%    
  Mar 09, 2019 329   @ Cal Poly W 68-60 77%    
Projected Record 18.3 - 9.7 9.3 - 6.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 4.2 10.4 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.7 21.8 3.1 31.7 3rd
4th 0.3 6.8 19.9 5.1 32.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 10.4 5.1 18.7 5th
6th 0.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.7 5.4 17.6 31.7 31.0 13.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 13.5% 19.3% 19.3% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.9
10-6 31.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.8 0.0 1.1 3.1 0.3 26.5
9-7 31.7% 10.2% 10.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.4 28.5
8-8 17.6% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 16.2
7-9 5.4% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.1 0.2 5.0
6-10 0.7% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.0 1.3 87.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 13.9 0.8 22.5 61.1 15.6 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1%
Lose Out 0.5%