UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#147
Achievement Rating+4.9#117
Pace63.8#322
Improvement+2.4#33

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#190
First Shot-1.1#216
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#145
Layup/Dunks-3.4#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#310
Freethrows+4.3#15
Improvement-0.8#242

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#120
First Shot-0.3#184
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#50
Layups/Dunks+1.2#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#133
Freethrows-2.0#285
Improvement+3.2#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 18.9% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 94.3% 96.5% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 89.1% 82.0%
Conference Champion 21.6% 23.4% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.6%
First Round17.3% 18.6% 13.2%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 221   @ Wyoming W 76-66 56%     1 - 0 +9.5 +3.2 +6.4
  Nov 11, 2018 204   @ North Dakota St. L 63-82 52%     1 - 1 -18.6 -10.0 -9.3
  Nov 17, 2018 297   Montana St. W 88-69 86%     2 - 1 +8.5 +16.3 -5.8
  Nov 23, 2018 234   Portland St. W 76-69 70%     3 - 1 +2.5 -4.0 +6.0
  Nov 24, 2018 286   Idaho W 66-55 77%     4 - 1 +4.1 -3.6 +9.0
  Nov 29, 2018 228   Sacramento St. W 75-58 78%     5 - 1 +9.9 +5.9 +5.2
  Dec 02, 2018 53   @ Washington L 63-67 14%     5 - 2 +8.4 -3.0 +11.5
  Dec 08, 2018 322   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 55-45 90%     6 - 2 -3.5 -11.8 +10.4
  Dec 15, 2018 315   @ Rice W 74-67 75%    
  Dec 19, 2018 232   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 22, 2018 244   Idaho St. W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 29, 2018 47   San Francisco L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 09, 2019 309   Cal Poly W 72-59 88%    
  Jan 12, 2019 293   UC Riverside W 69-58 85%    
  Jan 17, 2019 223   @ UC Davis W 62-60 56%    
  Jan 24, 2019 167   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 26, 2019 197   @ Long Beach St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 31, 2019 97   UC Irvine L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 02, 2019 185   @ Hawaii L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 06, 2019 324   Cal St. Northridge W 80-65 90%    
  Feb 09, 2019 223   UC Davis W 65-57 75%    
  Feb 14, 2019 293   @ UC Riverside W 66-61 68%    
  Feb 16, 2019 97   @ UC Irvine L 60-67 25%    
  Feb 21, 2019 185   Hawaii W 67-62 68%    
  Feb 23, 2019 167   Cal St. Fullerton W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 28, 2019 197   Long Beach St. W 74-68 71%    
  Mar 07, 2019 324   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-68 78%    
  Mar 09, 2019 309   @ Cal Poly W 69-62 72%    
Projected Record 18.7 - 9.3 10.3 - 5.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 6.9 5.2 2.2 0.4 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 9.1 8.2 3.2 0.5 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.5 8.2 5.0 0.9 0.0 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.4 1.8 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 6.3 9.8 13.3 15.6 16.1 14.2 10.1 5.6 2.2 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
14-2 91.8% 5.2    4.2 1.0 0.0
13-3 67.9% 6.9    4.1 2.5 0.2
12-4 35.4% 5.0    1.9 2.4 0.7 0.0
11-5 10.2% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 13.0 6.7 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 48.9% 47.7% 1.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2%
15-1 2.2% 44.4% 44.0% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.8%
14-2 5.6% 37.4% 37.3% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.5 0.1%
13-3 10.1% 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.0 7.1 0.0%
12-4 14.2% 25.1% 25.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.2 10.6
11-5 16.1% 18.7% 18.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.4 13.1
10-6 15.6% 13.7% 13.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 13.5
9-7 13.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 11.9
8-8 9.8% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 9.0
7-9 6.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.0
6-10 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.4
5-11 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-12 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-13 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-14 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.1 6.4 3.0 82.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.4 1.4 9.6 37.0 47.9 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 8.3% 11.7 2.8 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%