UNC Asheville
Big South
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.9#344
Achievement Rating-21.9#350
Pace64.5#312
Improvement+0.4#150

Offense
Total Offense-9.2#344
First Shot-8.2#341
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#223
Layup/Dunks-5.1#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#160
Freethrows-3.8#331
Improvement+2.1#37

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#320
First Shot-4.3#311
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#263
Layups/Dunks-3.7#302
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
Freethrows-1.0#237
Improvement-1.7#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.2% 3.2% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 66.1% 60.0% 69.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Away) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 20   @ North Carolina St. L 49-100 1%     0 - 1 -34.8 -24.9 -3.4
  Nov 16, 2018 127   @ Northern Kentucky L 50-77 4%     0 - 2 -21.0 -22.1 +2.4
  Nov 17, 2018 185   Coastal Carolina L 52-78 11%     0 - 3 -27.6 -19.8 -9.2
  Nov 18, 2018 320   Manhattan L 38-54 31%     0 - 4 -25.7 -24.4 -5.4
  Nov 25, 2018 89   Furman L 51-65 6%     0 - 5 -11.0 -12.3 -0.9
  Dec 01, 2018 301   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-87 17%     0 - 6 -21.8 -5.0 -17.1
  Dec 04, 2018 11   @ Auburn L 41-67 0.4%    0 - 7 -6.2 -21.8 +14.3
  Dec 08, 2018 307   Western Carolina L 59-71 36%     0 - 8 -23.3 -8.8 -16.5
  Dec 15, 2018 64   @ Wofford L 49-92 2%     0 - 9 -32.3 -16.3 -19.1
  Dec 18, 2018 338   @ Stetson L 67-72 32%    
  Dec 31, 2018 81   @ Vanderbilt L 57-81 1%    
  Jan 05, 2019 184   Winthrop L 69-79 17%    
  Jan 10, 2019 303   @ Longwood L 57-67 18%    
  Jan 12, 2019 244   @ Hampton L 63-76 12%    
  Jan 16, 2019 247   Campbell L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 19, 2019 128   Radford L 57-72 9%    
  Jan 21, 2019 184   @ Winthrop L 66-82 7%    
  Jan 26, 2019 226   @ High Point L 55-69 10%    
  Jan 30, 2019 330   South Carolina Upstate L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 02, 2019 206   @ Gardner-Webb L 59-74 8%    
  Feb 07, 2019 269   @ Presbyterian L 65-77 15%    
  Feb 09, 2019 228   Charleston Southern L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 13, 2019 330   @ South Carolina Upstate L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 21, 2019 206   Gardner-Webb L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 23, 2019 269   Presbyterian L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 27, 2019 228   @ Charleston Southern L 60-74 11%    
  Mar 02, 2019 226   High Point L 58-66 23%    
Projected Record 3.4 - 23.6 3.1 - 12.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.9 6th
7th 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.6 5.2 1.4 0.1 12.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.7 8.8 8.2 2.6 0.2 23.7 10th
11th 6.7 15.6 16.9 9.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 51.9 11th
Total 6.7 15.9 20.6 19.5 15.8 10.3 6.0 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3
12-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3
12-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.1
10-6 0.3% 0.3
9-7 0.4% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-8 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
7-9 3.0% 3.0
6-10 6.0% 6.0
5-11 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
4-12 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-13 19.5% 19.5
2-14 20.6% 20.6
1-15 15.9% 15.9
0-16 6.7% 6.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%