UNC Greensboro
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#89
Achievement Rating+10.6#64
Pace68.6#217
Improvement-2.7#326

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#99
First Shot+3.4#75
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#197
Layup/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#230
Freethrows-4.0#333
Improvement-2.9#345

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#87
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#126
Layups/Dunks+3.2#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+0.2#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 28.2% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.3% 4.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.9
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.0% 94.3%
Conference Champion 34.3% 34.4% 21.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
First Round26.9% 27.0% 15.2%
Second Round6.9% 7.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 323   @ N.C. A&T W 74-66 89%     1 - 0 +0.3 +4.6 -3.4
  Nov 09, 2018 51   @ LSU L 91-97 26%     1 - 1 +6.5 +13.5 -6.4
  Nov 13, 2018 218   @ UNC Wilmington W 82-61 72%     2 - 1 +20.7 +5.6 +14.9
  Nov 19, 2018 289   Prairie View W 74-66 92%     3 - 1 -2.1 -3.5 +1.5
  Nov 23, 2018 219   @ Delaware W 84-65 72%     4 - 1 +18.7 +9.4 +9.8
  Nov 24, 2018 138   Louisiana Tech W 80-73 64%     5 - 1 +9.0 +5.6 +3.4
  Dec 01, 2018 18   @ Kentucky L 61-78 15%     5 - 2 -0.4 -7.2 +7.1
  Dec 07, 2018 304   @ Elon W 75-74 84%     6 - 2 -4.1 -2.3 -1.9
  Dec 12, 2018 350   Coppin St. W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 15, 2018 329   North Alabama W 79-59 97%    
  Dec 18, 2018 133   Radford W 71-65 71%    
  Dec 22, 2018 189   @ Samford W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 29, 2018 314   Chattanooga W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 05, 2019 321   @ VMI W 78-65 89%    
  Jan 10, 2019 67   Wofford W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 12, 2019 112   Furman W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 17, 2019 295   @ Western Carolina W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 19, 2019 126   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 24, 2019 184   The Citadel W 92-82 82%    
  Jan 26, 2019 213   Mercer W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 31, 2019 321   VMI W 81-62 96%    
  Feb 07, 2019 189   Samford W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 09, 2019 314   @ Chattanooga W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 14, 2019 112   @ Furman L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 16, 2019 67   Wofford L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 21, 2019 295   Western Carolina W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 24, 2019 126   East Tennessee St. W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 28, 2019 184   @ The Citadel W 89-85 64%    
  Mar 02, 2019 213   @ Mercer W 70-64 69%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 7.2 13.2 - 4.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.4 10.5 9.2 4.9 1.2 34.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 8.5 8.9 4.0 0.5 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.3 5.6 1.4 0.1 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.4 1.1 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 9.9 13.5 16.3 16.8 14.6 9.8 4.9 1.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 100.0% 4.9    4.7 0.1
16-2 94.4% 9.2    7.8 1.5 0.0
15-3 72.1% 10.5    6.5 3.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 38.2% 6.4    2.4 3.0 1.0 0.1
13-5 11.3% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 22.9 9.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 77.8% 54.9% 22.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 50.8%
17-1 4.9% 65.7% 48.8% 16.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 32.9%
16-2 9.8% 52.0% 41.8% 10.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.7 17.5%
15-3 14.6% 39.7% 34.6% 5.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.8 7.8%
14-4 16.8% 30.3% 28.7% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.7 2.3%
13-5 16.3% 22.1% 21.6% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.6%
12-6 13.5% 16.2% 16.1% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.3 0.1%
11-7 9.9% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.7 0.0%
10-8 6.4% 9.4% 9.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.8
9-9 3.7% 7.1% 7.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
8-10 1.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
7-11 0.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.1% 24.9% 3.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 2.2 6.4 8.9 5.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 71.9 4.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 8.1 0.2 1.4 3.6 7.7 9.4 13.9 17.3 15.3 18.5 11.4 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 60.3% 9.5 0.8 2.1 3.3 10.7 7.9 15.7 16.5 2.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 53.1% 9.2 0.6 0.6 1.9 6.9 8.1 8.8 12.5 11.3 2.5