UNC Greensboro
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#110
Achievement Rating+11.1#47
Pace68.4#195
Improvement-0.9#228

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#151
First Shot-0.1#184
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#93
Layup/Dunks+2.7#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#271
Freethrows-1.2#262
Improvement-3.4#311

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#86
First Shot+2.3#103
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#81
Layups/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#88
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement+2.6#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 12.9% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
First Round12.0% 12.3% 9.3%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 91.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 323   @ N.C. A&T W 74-66 87%     1 - 0 +0.2 +6.3 -5.2
  Nov 09, 2018 22   @ LSU L 91-97 12%     1 - 1 +11.1 +15.9 -4.3
  Nov 13, 2018 252   @ UNC Wilmington W 82-61 74%     2 - 1 +18.3 +2.2 +15.9
  Nov 19, 2018 265   Prairie View W 74-66 88%     3 - 1 -0.7 -2.8 +2.1
  Nov 23, 2018 249   @ Delaware W 84-65 74%     4 - 1 +16.6 +9.9 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2018 136   Louisiana Tech W 80-73 58%     5 - 1 +9.1 +9.6 -0.4
  Dec 01, 2018 5   @ Kentucky L 61-78 5%     5 - 2 +5.7 -1.5 +7.5
  Dec 07, 2018 316   @ Elon W 75-74 85%     6 - 2 -5.9 -2.8 -3.1
  Dec 12, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 77-54 97%     7 - 2 +5.2 -1.1 +6.4
  Dec 15, 2018 319   North Alabama W 53-48 93%     8 - 2 -7.8 -17.3 +10.1
  Dec 18, 2018 135   Radford W 65-58 68%     9 - 2 +6.4 -0.5 +7.8
  Dec 22, 2018 174   @ Samford W 83-75 58%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +10.2 +10.1 +0.2
  Dec 29, 2018 292   Chattanooga W 85-72 90%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +2.9 +1.3 +1.0
  Jan 05, 2019 318   @ VMI W 71-68 86%     12 - 2 3 - 0 -4.3 -9.4 +5.0
  Jan 10, 2019 39   Wofford L 43-72 35%     12 - 3 3 - 1 -20.8 -21.3 -4.7
  Jan 12, 2019 64   Furman W 89-79 48%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +14.6 +19.4 -5.0
  Jan 17, 2019 289   @ Western Carolina W 69-60 79%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +4.5 -4.0 +8.9
  Jan 19, 2019 93   @ East Tennessee St. W 75-68 35%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +15.1 +6.5 +8.7
  Jan 24, 2019 278   The Citadel W 83-60 89%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +13.6 -4.3 +16.2
  Jan 26, 2019 192   Mercer W 88-81 80%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +2.3 +2.0 -0.5
  Jan 31, 2019 318   VMI W 93-66 93%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +14.2 +11.6 +2.2
  Feb 07, 2019 174   Samford W 75-67 76%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +4.7 -4.7 +9.0
  Feb 09, 2019 292   @ Chattanooga W 78-63 80%     20 - 3 11 - 1 +10.4 +7.1 +4.5
  Feb 14, 2019 64   @ Furman L 57-67 28%     20 - 4 11 - 2 +0.1 -7.1 +6.9
  Feb 16, 2019 39   @ Wofford L 50-80 18%     20 - 5 11 - 3 -16.3 -13.5 -6.1
  Feb 21, 2019 289   Western Carolina W 79-65 91%    
  Feb 24, 2019 93   East Tennessee St. W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 28, 2019 278   @ The Citadel W 85-77 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 192   @ Mercer W 71-68 61%    
Projected Record 22.9 - 6.1 13.9 - 4.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 7.0 42.0 25.6 74.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 14.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.5 4.7 4.5 9.6 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.5 6.2 25.5 42.0 25.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 0.3    0.3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 25.8% 17.1% 14.5% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 21.4 3.1%
14-4 42.0% 12.8% 12.4% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 36.6 0.4%
13-5 25.5% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 23.1 0.0%
12-6 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.8 0.0%
11-7 0.5% 5.2% 5.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 11.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 87.4 0.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 11.6 0.2 0.8 5.5 36.3 46.8 10.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.1% 5.2% 12.4 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.8% 2.4% 12.5 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2
Lose Out 0.2%