UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#219
Achievement Rating-6.1#249
Pace76.9#45
Improvement+2.8#26

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#143
First Shot-0.2#185
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#95
Layup/Dunks-3.8#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+2.7#14

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#297
First Shot-3.7#285
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#219
Layups/Dunks-0.3#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#255
Freethrows+1.3#117
Improvement+0.1#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.0% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 17.5% 33.8% 14.6%
.500 or above in Conference 48.2% 58.7% 46.4%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.3% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 4.5% 8.5%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round3.2% 4.7% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 243   @ Campbell L 93-97 45%     0 - 1 -5.9 +3.2 -8.5
  Nov 09, 2018 97   Stanford L 59-72 29%     0 - 2 -10.6 -10.2 -0.3
  Nov 13, 2018 89   UNC Greensboro L 61-82 28%     0 - 3 -18.2 -11.2 -6.8
  Nov 23, 2018 291   Arkansas St. W 78-64 65%     1 - 3 +6.8 -0.7 +7.5
  Nov 24, 2018 190   Gardner-Webb L 72-81 44%     1 - 4 -10.8 -5.7 -4.8
  Nov 25, 2018 318   Eastern Illinois W 82-65 73%     2 - 4 +7.3 +11.2 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2018 257   East Carolina W 95-86 70%     3 - 4 +0.5 +9.5 -10.1
  Dec 01, 2018 79   Davidson L 85-91 26%     3 - 5 -2.6 +12.9 -15.5
  Dec 05, 2018 8   @ North Carolina L 69-97 2%     3 - 6 -6.9 -9.4 +7.6
  Dec 15, 2018 106   @ Furman L 73-84 15%    
  Dec 19, 2018 108   @ Georgia St. L 74-85 16%    
  Dec 21, 2018 215   @ Mercer L 72-75 38%    
  Dec 29, 2018 122   College of Charleston L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 03, 2019 233   @ James Madison L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 05, 2019 297   @ Towson W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 10, 2019 220   Delaware W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 12, 2019 251   Drexel W 86-81 68%    
  Jan 17, 2019 131   @ Hofstra L 77-86 21%    
  Jan 19, 2019 85   @ Northeastern L 73-85 13%    
  Jan 24, 2019 199   William & Mary W 84-82 57%    
  Jan 26, 2019 301   Elon W 83-75 76%    
  Jan 31, 2019 297   Towson W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 02, 2019 233   James Madison W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 07, 2019 251   @ Drexel L 83-84 46%    
  Feb 09, 2019 220   @ Delaware L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 14, 2019 85   Northeastern L 76-82 29%    
  Feb 16, 2019 131   Hofstra L 80-83 39%    
  Feb 21, 2019 301   @ Elon W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 199   @ William & Mary L 81-85 36%    
  Mar 02, 2019 122   @ College of Charleston L 69-79 20%    
Projected Record 12.1 - 17.9 8.4 - 9.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.2 3.7 0.8 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 6.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.2 6.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 7.0 10.5 12.8 14.3 14.1 12.2 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 98.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 78.6% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 48.3% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 30.0% 30.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 23.6% 23.1% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6%
15-3 0.7% 21.4% 21.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.8% 14.8% 14.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.6% 12.0% 12.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.2
12-6 6.3% 8.6% 8.6% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.8
11-7 9.3% 6.9% 6.9% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 8.7
10-8 12.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 11.7
9-9 14.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 13.6
8-10 14.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.0
7-11 12.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.6
6-12 10.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.4
5-13 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-14 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 96.4 0.0%