UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#252
Achievement Rating-7.9#282
Pace72.0#103
Improvement-0.3#196

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#116
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#20
Layup/Dunks-2.5#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#227
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+1.5#107

Defense
Total Defense-7.6#342
First Shot-6.9#343
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#248
Layups/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#346
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement-1.7#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.6% 4.8% 77.5%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 213   @ Campbell L 93-97 31%     0 - 1 -4.4 +4.3 -8.2
  Nov 09, 2018 92   Stanford L 59-72 22%     0 - 2 -10.4 -12.2 +1.8
  Nov 13, 2018 110   UNC Greensboro L 61-82 26%     0 - 3 -19.6 -10.5 -8.9
  Nov 23, 2018 259   Arkansas St. W 78-64 51%     1 - 3 +8.4 +0.7 +7.6
  Nov 24, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb L 72-81 42%     1 - 4 -12.3 -6.4 -5.7
  Nov 25, 2018 296   Eastern Illinois W 82-65 59%     2 - 4 +9.3 +10.0 +0.6
  Nov 27, 2018 267   East Carolina W 95-86 63%     3 - 4 +0.3 +8.8 -9.6
  Dec 01, 2018 79   Davidson L 85-91 20%     3 - 5 -2.5 +14.6 -17.1
  Dec 05, 2018 6   @ North Carolina L 69-97 1%     3 - 6 -5.5 -7.0 +6.6
  Dec 15, 2018 64   @ Furman L 50-93 8%     3 - 7 -32.9 -14.2 -20.1
  Dec 19, 2018 131   @ Georgia St. L 71-86 15%     3 - 8 -9.5 +1.7 -11.5
  Dec 21, 2018 192   @ Mercer L 73-77 27%     3 - 9 -3.2 +0.7 -3.9
  Dec 29, 2018 123   College of Charleston L 66-73 28%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -6.5 -0.4 -6.9
  Jan 03, 2019 258   @ James Madison W 86-83 40%     4 - 10 1 - 1 +0.1 +6.1 -6.1
  Jan 05, 2019 253   @ Towson W 67-61 39%     5 - 10 2 - 1 +3.3 -1.7 +5.6
  Jan 10, 2019 249   Delaware L 69-82 60%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -20.9 -2.7 -19.6
  Jan 12, 2019 243   Drexel W 97-83 59%     6 - 11 3 - 2 +6.4 +9.3 -4.0
  Jan 17, 2019 87   @ Hofstra L 72-87 10%     6 - 12 3 - 3 -6.4 +2.1 -9.2
  Jan 19, 2019 101   @ Northeastern L 71-88 12%     6 - 13 3 - 4 -9.4 +2.3 -12.3
  Jan 24, 2019 204   William & Mary W 93-88 50%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -0.4 +12.1 -12.6
  Jan 26, 2019 316   Elon L 82-89 75%     7 - 14 4 - 5 -19.4 -1.4 -17.6
  Jan 31, 2019 253   Towson L 76-77 61%     7 - 15 4 - 6 -9.2 +5.9 -15.2
  Feb 02, 2019 258   James Madison L 95-104 61%     7 - 16 4 - 7 -17.4 +10.9 -27.7
  Feb 07, 2019 243   @ Drexel L 57-69 37%     7 - 17 4 - 8 -14.1 -16.2 +1.2
  Feb 09, 2019 249   @ Delaware L 66-70 38%     7 - 18 4 - 9 -6.4 -4.2 -2.6
  Feb 14, 2019 101   Northeastern L 77-81 24%     7 - 19 4 - 10 -1.9 +4.2 -6.1
  Feb 16, 2019 87   Hofstra W 87-79 21%     8 - 19 5 - 10 +11.1 +8.7 +2.1
  Feb 21, 2019 316   @ Elon W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 23, 2019 204   @ William & Mary L 77-83 29%    
  Mar 02, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston L 71-82 14%    
Projected Record 9.0 - 21.0 6.0 - 12.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.7 0.7 4th
5th 2.2 1.5 3.7 5th
6th 0.6 10.2 0.3 11.1 6th
7th 7.7 7.2 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 24.0 1.5 25.6 8th
9th 16.4 15.2 0.1 31.7 9th
10th 12.2 0.2 12.4 10th
Total 28.6 47.7 21.2 2.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.5
7-11 21.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 21.0
6-12 47.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.3 47.4
5-13 28.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 28.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 15.2%