UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#186
Achievement Rating+0.1#165
Pace74.5#60
Improvement+2.8#63

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#301
First Shot-4.7#297
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#215
Layup/Dunks-0.6#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#336
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement-1.2#245

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#73
First Shot+3.7#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks-1.0#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#30
Freethrows-2.5#321
Improvement+4.0#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 6.1% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 82.5% 99.0% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 100.0% 98.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.0% 6.1% 3.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 34   Oklahoma L 76-91 16%     0 - 1 -6.2 +3.9 -9.0
  Nov 12, 2018 282   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-69 59%     1 - 1 +3.0 +9.5 -5.9
  Nov 14, 2018 265   Prairie View W 70-57 75%     2 - 1 +4.3 -14.1 +17.1
  Nov 19, 2018 267   @ East Carolina L 64-69 56%     2 - 2 -8.2 -13.2 +5.3
  Nov 21, 2018 108   @ Georgia Tech L 44-72 20%     2 - 3 -20.9 -20.5 +0.1
  Nov 23, 2018 245   Lamar W 77-75 72%     3 - 3 -5.7 -3.7 -2.1
  Nov 26, 2018 282   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-59 78%     4 - 3 -0.5 -4.0 +4.0
  Nov 28, 2018 20   @ Houston L 53-58 5%     4 - 4 +12.7 -3.9 +16.1
  Dec 01, 2018 175   @ Texas Arlington W 76-65 36%     5 - 4 +13.2 +7.5 +5.7
  Dec 05, 2018 273   North Dakota W 70-56 77%     6 - 4 +4.8 -15.2 +18.1
  Dec 15, 2018 124   Texas St. L 68-77 42%     6 - 5 -8.5 -5.9 -2.2
  Dec 18, 2018 254   Rice L 67-75 74%     6 - 6 -16.3 -14.6 -1.3
  Dec 22, 2018 324   McNeese St. W 68-64 86%     7 - 6 -9.4 -13.2 +3.9
  Dec 28, 2018 9   @ Texas Tech L 46-71 3%     7 - 7 -5.3 -9.8 +3.1
  Jan 03, 2019 107   @ UC Irvine L 74-85 20%     7 - 8 -3.8 +1.5 -4.5
  Jan 05, 2019 217   @ California Baptist W 81-74 46%     8 - 8 1 - 0 +6.5 -1.8 +7.7
  Jan 10, 2019 200   Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-75 63%     8 - 9 1 - 1 -11.1 -14.5 +4.0
  Jan 12, 2019 102   Grand Canyon L 65-69 36%     8 - 10 1 - 2 -1.9 -6.9 +5.0
  Jan 17, 2019 114   @ Utah Valley L 61-82 21%     8 - 11 1 - 3 -14.3 -12.4 -0.8
  Jan 19, 2019 193   @ Seattle W 67-62 41%     9 - 11 2 - 3 +5.8 -1.4 +7.3
  Jan 26, 2019 62   New Mexico St. L 61-63 27%     9 - 12 2 - 4 +2.7 -7.4 +10.0
  Jan 31, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 77-46 96%     10 - 12 3 - 4 +8.3 -8.9 +16.3
  Feb 02, 2019 229   UMKC W 75-63 70%     11 - 12 4 - 4 +5.1 -0.6 +5.8
  Feb 07, 2019 102   @ Grand Canyon W 72-69 19%     12 - 12 5 - 4 +10.6 +5.8 +4.9
  Feb 09, 2019 200   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-74 42%     13 - 12 6 - 4 +5.4 -2.8 +7.7
  Feb 14, 2019 193   Seattle W 59-44 62%     14 - 12 7 - 4 +10.3 -10.2 +21.5
  Feb 16, 2019 114   Utah Valley L 64-76 39%     14 - 13 7 - 5 -10.8 -9.4 -1.3
  Feb 23, 2019 62   @ New Mexico St. L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 28, 2019 351   @ Chicago St. W 80-64 92%    
  Mar 02, 2019 229   @ UMKC L 68-69 49%    
  Mar 07, 2019 217   California Baptist W 75-71 67%    
Projected Record 16.2 - 14.8 9.2 - 6.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 3.9 2.7 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 8.2 18.7 1.7 28.7 3rd
4th 0.0 7.6 32.8 9.8 50.2 4th
5th 0.4 8.6 2.9 11.9 5th
6th 0.7 1.5 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.4 17.9 44.0 32.4 4.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 4.3% 8.6% 8.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0
10-6 32.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 30.8
9-7 44.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.2 0.1 1.0 0.4 42.5
8-8 17.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 17.5
7-9 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.5 2.6 0.9 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.4 5.9 54.8 36.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%
Lose Out 1.0%