Utah St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#51
Achievement Rating+12.5#46
Pace74.9#78
Improvement-3.0#338

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#55
First Shot+3.4#76
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#90
Layup/Dunks+5.5#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#298
Freethrows+3.7#28
Improvement-1.0#259

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#55
First Shot+2.8#89
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#53
Layups/Dunks+4.9#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#200
Freethrows-2.1#289
Improvement-2.1#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.4% 39.7% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.7% 30.9% 14.8%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 11.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 97.3% 94.0%
Conference Champion 13.0% 13.0% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.1% 10.1% 7.7%
First Round34.5% 34.7% 17.7%
Second Round15.2% 15.3% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 4.8% 1.6%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 313   @ Montana St. W 101-71 92%     1 - 0 +24.0 +13.2 +8.1
  Nov 09, 2018 216   Hartford W 100-73 92%     2 - 0 +20.9 +14.0 +4.2
  Nov 13, 2018 348   Mississippi Valley W 94-59 99%     3 - 0 +15.7 +10.6 +4.5
  Nov 16, 2018 141   Utah Valley W 65-46 84%     4 - 0 +17.8 -9.8 +27.2
  Nov 19, 2018 52   St. Mary's W 80-63 50%     5 - 0 +26.4 +7.0 +18.9
  Nov 21, 2018 36   Arizona St. L 82-87 42%     5 - 1 +6.7 +3.3 +4.1
  Nov 28, 2018 174   Northern Iowa W 71-52 89%     6 - 1 +15.0 +0.6 +15.2
  Dec 01, 2018 98   @ UC Irvine W 89-65 55%     7 - 1 +32.3 +21.7 +10.4
  Dec 05, 2018 66   @ BYU L 80-95 46%     7 - 2 -4.6 +5.3 -8.7
  Dec 08, 2018 154   Weber St. W 76-67 80%     8 - 2 +9.5 +0.8 +8.3
  Dec 15, 2018 328   Alabama St. W 88-64 99%    
  Dec 20, 2018 33   @ Houston L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 02, 2019 6   @ Nevada L 74-86 14%    
  Jan 05, 2019 230   Air Force W 80-63 94%    
  Jan 09, 2019 61   Fresno St. W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 12, 2019 210   @ Wyoming W 82-73 81%    
  Jan 16, 2019 323   @ San Jose St. W 80-63 94%    
  Jan 19, 2019 213   Colorado St. W 86-70 92%    
  Jan 26, 2019 146   @ New Mexico W 88-83 69%    
  Jan 30, 2019 323   San Jose St. W 83-60 98%    
  Feb 02, 2019 136   UNLV W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 05, 2019 61   @ Fresno St. L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 09, 2019 70   @ San Diego St. L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 13, 2019 210   Wyoming W 85-70 92%    
  Feb 16, 2019 230   @ Air Force W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 20, 2019 146   New Mexico W 91-80 85%    
  Feb 23, 2019 127   @ Boise St. W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 26, 2019 70   San Diego St. W 79-74 69%    
  Mar 02, 2019 6   Nevada L 77-83 30%    
  Mar 05, 2019 213   @ Colorado St. W 83-73 80%    
Projected Record 22.1 - 7.9 12.9 - 5.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 4.8 2.3 0.4 13.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.9 13.8 9.0 2.3 38.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 8.7 7.6 2.4 0.1 23.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 7.1 11.6 16.0 18.4 17.7 13.0 7.0 2.3 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.3    1.9 0.4
16-2 67.7% 4.8    2.7 2.0 0.0
15-3 30.1% 3.9    1.4 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 8.1% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 6.6 5.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 98.6% 35.9% 62.7% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
17-1 2.3% 92.5% 32.4% 60.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 88.9%
16-2 7.0% 83.4% 26.0% 57.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 77.6%
15-3 13.0% 70.0% 20.3% 49.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.9 62.4%
14-4 17.7% 53.7% 15.4% 38.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 45.3%
13-5 18.4% 37.4% 11.8% 25.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.5 29.0%
12-6 16.0% 22.0% 7.9% 14.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 12.5 15.3%
11-7 11.6% 12.3% 6.1% 6.2% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.2 6.6%
10-8 7.1% 6.5% 4.4% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.6 2.1%
9-9 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.6%
8-10 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-11 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.4% 12.7% 26.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 4.5 7.7 10.8 6.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 60.6 30.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.6 8.3 50.0 25.0 4.2 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 98.3% 4.0 13.6 20.3 30.5 25.4 5.1 1.7 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 2.7 2.7 18.9 43.2 10.8 16.2 5.4