Utah St.
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#49
Achievement Rating+10.4#53
Pace70.3#141
Improvement-5.7#342

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#45
First Shot+3.1#79
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#41
Layup/Dunks+4.5#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
Freethrows+1.8#60
Improvement+0.3#178

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#66
First Shot+2.2#105
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#23
Layups/Dunks+4.8#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#239
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement-6.1#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.7% 34.6% 20.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.2% 22.0% 9.2%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 6.8% 7.7% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.3% 14.3% 6.9%
First Round26.0% 27.5% 17.0%
Second Round8.7% 9.3% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.6% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 227   @ Montana St. W 101-71 84%     1 - 0 +28.8 +15.3 +10.8
  Nov 09, 2018 188   Hartford W 100-73 90%     2 - 0 +22.5 +12.4 +7.5
  Nov 13, 2018 350   Mississippi Valley W 94-59 99%     3 - 0 +14.6 +11.4 +2.6
  Nov 16, 2018 114   Utah Valley W 65-46 78%     4 - 0 +20.2 -9.5 +29.4
  Nov 19, 2018 53   St. Mary's W 80-63 51%     5 - 0 +26.1 +6.2 +19.5
  Nov 21, 2018 54   Arizona St. L 82-87 52%     5 - 1 +3.8 +1.8 +2.6
  Nov 28, 2018 180   Northern Iowa W 71-52 89%     6 - 1 +15.0 -1.4 +17.2
  Dec 01, 2018 107   @ UC Irvine W 89-65 58%     7 - 1 +31.2 +21.0 +9.9
  Dec 05, 2018 73   @ BYU L 80-95 50%     7 - 2 -5.5 +3.4 -7.8
  Dec 08, 2018 166   Weber St. W 76-67 82%     8 - 2 +8.8 +0.5 +8.0
  Dec 15, 2018 320   Alabama St. W 86-48 97%     9 - 2 +25.2 -0.4 +22.1
  Dec 20, 2018 20   @ Houston L 50-60 21%     9 - 3 +7.7 -10.4 +17.6
  Jan 02, 2019 13   @ Nevada L 49-72 18%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -4.1 -18.7 +16.1
  Jan 05, 2019 239   Air Force W 79-62 93%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +9.6 +11.7 -0.3
  Jan 09, 2019 59   Fresno St. L 77-78 66%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +4.1 +9.2 -5.1
  Jan 12, 2019 298   @ Wyoming W 71-55 90%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +10.9 +6.2 +6.7
  Jan 16, 2019 338   @ San Jose St. W 81-63 96%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +7.6 +7.0 +1.0
  Jan 19, 2019 178   Colorado St. W 87-72 89%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +11.1 +11.3 +0.2
  Jan 26, 2019 155   @ New Mexico W 68-66 72%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +5.3 +1.1 +4.3
  Jan 30, 2019 338   San Jose St. W 103-73 98%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +14.1 +17.2 -5.3
  Feb 02, 2019 151   UNLV W 82-65 86%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +14.9 +5.5 +9.4
  Feb 05, 2019 59   @ Fresno St. W 82-81 45%     17 - 5 8 - 2 +11.7 +23.3 -11.5
  Feb 09, 2019 115   @ San Diego St. L 63-68 60%     17 - 6 8 - 3 +1.7 +0.7 +0.4
  Feb 13, 2019 298   Wyoming W 76-59 96%     18 - 6 9 - 3 +6.4 +8.2 +0.2
  Feb 16, 2019 239   @ Air Force W 76-62 85%     19 - 6 10 - 3 +12.2 +6.0 +6.7
  Feb 20, 2019 155   New Mexico W 84-72 87%    
  Feb 23, 2019 125   @ Boise St. W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 26, 2019 115   San Diego St. W 76-68 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 13   Nevada L 73-77 36%    
  Mar 05, 2019 178   @ Colorado St. W 79-71 76%    
Projected Record 22.4 - 7.6 13.4 - 4.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 5.6 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 15.4 31.8 7.3 55.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 13.5 17.9 2.2 35.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 3.4 15.0 33.3 35.1 12.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 43.5% 5.6    0.9 4.0 0.7
14-4 3.2% 1.1    0.0 0.4 0.7
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 6.8% 6.8 1.0 4.5 1.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 12.9% 67.0% 23.4% 43.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.8 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 57.0%
14-4 35.1% 39.5% 17.1% 22.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.4 4.9 1.2 0.0 21.3 27.0%
13-5 33.3% 23.1% 13.8% 9.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 3.4 1.0 0.1 25.6 10.8%
12-6 15.0% 14.2% 11.5% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 12.9 3.0%
11-7 3.4% 9.6% 9.1% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0 0.6%
10-8 0.3% 6.6% 6.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.7% 15.7% 17.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 4.3 11.7 11.3 2.9 0.1 67.3 20.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 9.2 0.0 0.4 2.8 13.7 17.5 16.7 27.6 19.2 2.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6% 66.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 14.2 28.3 17.7 2.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7% 52.0% 11.3 0.2 1.1 8.1 21.4 17.9 3.3 0.1
Lose Out 0.1%