Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#130
Achievement Rating+6.1#105
Pace69.0#206
Improvement+4.6#3

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#134
First Shot+1.7#126
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#195
Layup/Dunks+4.3#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#71
Freethrows-2.1#281
Improvement+5.3#1

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#127
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#70
Layups/Dunks-1.6#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#232
Freethrows+2.1#68
Improvement-0.7#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 18.0% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 95.2% 96.5% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 92.0% 87.2%
Conference Champion 20.1% 20.7% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round17.3% 17.9% 14.4%
Second Round2.1% 2.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 72   @ BYU L 65-75 24%     0 - 1 +0.0 -9.0 +9.6
  Nov 11, 2018 53   @ St. Mary's L 63-92 18%     0 - 2 -16.7 -5.8 -11.3
  Nov 16, 2018 44   @ Utah St. L 46-65 17%     0 - 3 -6.1 -20.9 +15.2
  Nov 19, 2018 202   Hartford W 72-65 69%     1 - 3 +4.6 -6.6 +10.9
  Nov 21, 2018 198   Long Beach St. W 87-72 68%     2 - 3 +12.9 +12.1 +0.6
  Nov 24, 2018 289   North Dakota W 74-68 88%     3 - 3 -4.2 -0.9 -3.2
  Dec 01, 2018 264   Denver W 98-75 86%     4 - 3 +14.0 +12.7 -0.2
  Dec 06, 2018 51   @ Arizona L 69-80 18%     4 - 4 +1.6 +2.6 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2018 321   @ Northern Arizona W 98-78 81%     5 - 4 +13.2 +19.6 -6.5
  Dec 15, 2018 168   @ Weber St. W 75-63 51%     6 - 4 +14.6 +4.7 +10.0
  Dec 19, 2018 248   Idaho St. W 80-69 85%    
  Dec 22, 2018 288   Sam Houston St. W 75-62 89%    
  Dec 29, 2018 62   @ Fresno St. L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 03, 2019 131   @ Grand Canyon L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 05, 2019 196   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 12, 2019 171   Seattle W 75-69 73%    
  Jan 17, 2019 229   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 19, 2019 65   New Mexico St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 24, 2019 266   @ UMKC W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 26, 2019 347   @ Chicago St. W 84-68 93%    
  Jan 30, 2019 237   California Baptist W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 09, 2019 171   @ Seattle W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 14, 2019 65   @ New Mexico St. L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 16, 2019 229   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 21, 2019 347   Chicago St. W 87-65 98%    
  Feb 23, 2019 266   UMKC W 77-65 85%    
  Mar 02, 2019 237   @ California Baptist W 77-73 65%    
  Mar 07, 2019 131   Grand Canyon W 73-70 60%    
  Mar 09, 2019 196   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-64 76%    
Projected Record 18.6 - 10.4 10.6 - 5.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.0 6.8 5.3 2.4 0.5 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.0 9.7 10.1 4.5 0.7 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 9.4 7.0 1.4 0.1 22.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 6.3 3.7 0.6 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.3 1.8 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.9 8.8 12.2 16.2 18.3 15.6 11.4 6.0 2.4 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.1
14-2 88.4% 5.3    4.3 1.1 0.0
13-3 60.2% 6.8    3.9 2.6 0.3
12-4 26.0% 4.0    1.3 2.1 0.6 0.1
11-5 5.5% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.4 6.2 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 55.8% 53.8% 1.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4.2%
15-1 2.4% 43.0% 40.0% 3.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.3 5.0%
14-2 6.0% 36.9% 35.8% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 3.8 1.8%
13-3 11.4% 28.2% 27.8% 0.4% 13.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 8.2 0.5%
12-4 15.6% 22.0% 22.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.2 12.1
11-5 18.3% 16.3% 16.3% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 15.3
10-6 16.2% 12.9% 12.9% 14.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 14.1
9-7 12.2% 10.2% 10.2% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 11.0
8-8 8.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.1
7-9 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.7
6-10 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.3
5-11 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.3% 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 17.5% 17.3% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 5.5 5.7 2.6 0.5 82.5 0.2%