Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#114
Achievement Rating+5.7#99
Pace70.5#138
Improvement+4.1#33

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#90
First Shot+3.2#78
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#182
Layup/Dunks+6.6#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#188
Freethrows+1.9#54
Improvement+4.3#23

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot-0.7#198
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#45
Layups/Dunks-0.8#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#127
Freethrows+0.4#148
Improvement-0.3#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.1% 20.1% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.7% 93.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.1% 20.1% 14.2%
Second Round2.5% 2.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 73   @ BYU L 65-75 30%     0 - 1 -0.5 -9.9 +10.0
  Nov 11, 2018 53   @ St. Mary's L 63-92 23%     0 - 2 -17.1 -6.4 -11.1
  Nov 16, 2018 49   @ Utah St. L 46-65 22%     0 - 3 -6.9 -22.2 +15.6
  Nov 19, 2018 188   Hartford W 72-65 71%     1 - 3 +5.3 -8.3 +13.2
  Nov 21, 2018 221   Long Beach St. W 87-72 76%     2 - 3 +11.6 +10.4 +0.9
  Nov 24, 2018 273   North Dakota W 74-68 89%     3 - 3 -3.2 -0.8 -2.4
  Dec 01, 2018 297   Denver W 98-75 91%     4 - 3 +12.5 +10.9 +0.0
  Dec 06, 2018 84   @ Arizona L 69-80 32%     4 - 4 -2.3 +0.4 -2.6
  Dec 08, 2018 307   @ Northern Arizona W 98-78 82%     5 - 4 +14.3 +19.6 -5.4
  Dec 15, 2018 166   @ Weber St. W 75-63 56%     6 - 4 +14.5 +4.5 +10.2
  Dec 19, 2018 313   Idaho St. W 88-77 92%     7 - 4 -0.7 +7.2 -7.8
  Dec 22, 2018 173   Sam Houston St. W 85-79 76%     8 - 4 +2.7 +11.0 -8.3
  Dec 29, 2018 59   @ Fresno St. W 64-60 26%     9 - 4 +14.7 -2.9 +17.6
  Jan 03, 2019 102   @ Grand Canyon L 60-71 36%     9 - 5 0 - 1 -3.4 -9.2 +5.7
  Jan 05, 2019 200   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-73 64%     9 - 6 0 - 2 -1.6 +7.2 -9.0
  Jan 12, 2019 193   Seattle W 88-78 79%     10 - 6 1 - 2 +5.3 +10.8 -5.9
  Jan 17, 2019 186   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-61 79%     11 - 6 2 - 2 +16.6 +7.6 +8.0
  Jan 19, 2019 62   New Mexico St. L 78-83 47%     11 - 7 2 - 3 -0.3 +10.0 -10.4
  Jan 24, 2019 229   @ UMKC W 75-67 70%     12 - 7 3 - 3 +6.6 +0.8 +5.8
  Jan 26, 2019 351   @ Chicago St. W 74-60 96%     13 - 7 4 - 3 -3.1 -1.1 -0.9
  Jan 30, 2019 217   California Baptist W 79-62 83%     14 - 7 5 - 3 +11.0 +2.0 +9.3
  Feb 14, 2019 62   @ New Mexico St. L 77-84 27%     14 - 8 5 - 4 +3.2 +5.2 -1.6
  Feb 16, 2019 186   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-64 61%     15 - 8 6 - 4 +13.2 +8.1 +5.0
  Feb 21, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 89-62 99%    
  Feb 23, 2019 229   UMKC W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 26, 2019 193   @ Seattle W 73-70 61%    
  Mar 02, 2019 217   @ California Baptist W 79-75 65%    
  Mar 07, 2019 102   Grand Canyon W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 09, 2019 200   Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-68 81%    
Projected Record 19.5 - 9.5 10.5 - 5.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 8.6 29.6 17.5 55.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.9 20.6 5.7 33.2 3rd
4th 0.9 5.6 1.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 0.8 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 3.1 13.5 30.2 35.3 17.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 17.6% 26.8% 26.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.9
11-5 35.3% 22.1% 22.1% 13.5 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.4 0.3 0.0 27.5
10-6 30.2% 17.7% 17.7% 13.9 0.0 1.1 3.3 0.9 0.0 24.8
9-7 13.5% 13.9% 13.9% 14.2 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 11.7
8-8 3.1% 11.2% 11.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8
7-9 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.9 8.3 1.9 0.0 79.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 12.4 0.0 0.3 8.4 44.6 41.0 5.6 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3%