Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#47
Achievement Rating+11.8#38
Pace70.8#130
Improvement+1.5#114

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#185
First Shot+0.6#163
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#227
Layup/Dunks+2.1#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#229
Freethrows+1.8#61
Improvement+4.4#22

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#9
First Shot+12.1#1
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#342
Layups/Dunks+1.5#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#2
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement-2.9#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.0% 67.9% 50.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.6% 47.4% 24.8%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 80.1% 84.3% 57.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.3% 18.3% 12.3%
First Round56.1% 58.5% 43.6%
Second Round19.5% 20.7% 13.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 4.9% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb W 69-57 92%     1 - 0 +5.9 -3.3 +10.1
  Nov 09, 2018 241   Hampton W 69-57 93%     2 - 0 +4.6 -17.1 +20.5
  Nov 12, 2018 100   Bowling Green W 72-61 75%     3 - 0 +13.2 -3.8 +16.3
  Nov 19, 2018 70   Temple W 57-51 59%     4 - 0 +13.0 -8.7 +22.1
  Nov 20, 2018 42   St. John's L 86-87 46%     4 - 1 +9.5 +3.3 +6.4
  Nov 24, 2018 87   Hofstra W 69-67 73%     5 - 1 +5.1 -11.4 +16.4
  Nov 28, 2018 111   @ Old Dominion L 52-62 59%     5 - 2 -3.1 -11.2 +7.4
  Dec 01, 2018 222   Iona W 88-59 92%     6 - 2 +22.7 +4.1 +16.7
  Dec 05, 2018 27   @ Texas W 54-53 27%     7 - 2 +16.7 -7.0 +23.7
  Dec 09, 2018 3   @ Virginia L 49-57 8%     7 - 3 +16.7 -1.7 +16.9
  Dec 15, 2018 123   College of Charleston L 79-83 80%     7 - 4 -3.5 -6.3 +3.4
  Dec 22, 2018 112   Wichita St. W 70-54 78%     8 - 4 +17.3 +6.4 +12.7
  Dec 30, 2018 195   Rider W 90-79 90%     9 - 4 +6.2 +11.9 -6.1
  Jan 05, 2019 226   @ Fordham W 76-51 84%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +23.8 +8.3 +17.1
  Jan 09, 2019 198   La Salle W 69-63 90%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +1.0 -8.6 +9.3
  Jan 12, 2019 79   @ Davidson L 57-64 51%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +2.0 -7.2 +8.8
  Jan 16, 2019 72   Dayton W 76-71 69%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +9.1 +4.4 +4.8
  Jan 19, 2019 190   Massachusetts W 68-50 90%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +13.4 -4.2 +18.5
  Jan 23, 2019 140   @ Rhode Island L 65-71 68%     13 - 6 4 - 2 -1.5 -6.6 +5.4
  Jan 26, 2019 152   @ Duquesne W 80-74 72%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +9.4 +6.0 +3.2
  Feb 02, 2019 139   George Mason W 79-63 83%     15 - 6 6 - 2 +15.1 +2.6 +11.7
  Feb 06, 2019 256   @ George Washington W 60-50 87%     16 - 6 7 - 2 +7.2 -6.1 +14.3
  Feb 09, 2019 133   @ St. Bonaventure W 85-55 66%     17 - 6 8 - 2 +35.0 +11.3 +21.6
  Feb 13, 2019 179   Richmond W 81-60 89%     18 - 6 9 - 2 +17.1 +9.8 +9.0
  Feb 16, 2019 72   @ Dayton W 69-68 49%     19 - 6 10 - 2 +10.6 +7.1 +3.7
  Feb 19, 2019 140   Rhode Island W 71-61 84%    
  Feb 23, 2019 256   George Washington W 74-56 95%    
  Feb 26, 2019 121   Saint Louis W 67-58 80%    
  Mar 02, 2019 179   @ Richmond W 72-64 76%    
  Mar 05, 2019 139   @ George Mason W 70-65 66%    
  Mar 08, 2019 182   Saint Joseph's W 76-63 90%    
Projected Record 23.9 - 7.1 14.9 - 3.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 13.0 34.9 30.8 80.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.5 8.8 4.6 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.7 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.6 21.8 39.5 30.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 30.8    27.1 3.7
15-3 88.3% 34.9    23.6 11.3
14-4 59.8% 13.0    4.8 7.0 1.2 0.1
13-5 20.8% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 80.1% 80.1 55.6 22.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 30.8% 83.1% 43.2% 39.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.8 3.1 6.2 7.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.2 70.2%
15-3 39.5% 65.8% 37.9% 27.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 5.7 11.4 5.9 0.8 0.0 13.5 44.9%
14-4 21.8% 49.7% 34.4% 15.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.0 23.3%
13-5 6.6% 35.1% 29.8% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 7.6%
12-6 1.2% 26.8% 24.9% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.5%
11-7 0.1% 15.3% 15.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 65.0% 38.1% 27.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.2 5.0 13.4 24.8 13.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 35.0 43.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.3% 100.0% 8.9 0.1 0.6 5.1 15.7 19.3 17.2 23.6 16.4 2.0 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.9% 77.9% 10.7 0.1 0.4 2.3 7.0 21.5 31.1 13.7 1.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.4% 70.2% 10.8 0.1 1.1 4.4 17.3 30.9 14.3 2.0 0.1