Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#80
Achievement Rating+11.2#57
Pace71.1#150
Improvement+1.2#91

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#246
First Shot-5.0#301
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#57
Layup/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#227
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement+0.7#119

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#7
First Shot+12.2#1
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#334
Layups/Dunks+3.5#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#2
Freethrows-3.1#317
Improvement+0.5#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 35.1% 21.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.7% 21.2% 9.2%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.9
.500 or above 97.9% 98.9% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 93.2% 89.1%
Conference Champion 24.5% 26.5% 19.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four5.3% 5.9% 3.8%
First Round28.1% 31.7% 19.1%
Second Round9.7% 11.3% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.7% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 192   Gardner-Webb W 69-57 85%     1 - 0 +7.1 -2.8 +10.8
  Nov 09, 2018 240   Hampton W 69-57 90%     2 - 0 +4.1 -13.4 +16.4
  Nov 12, 2018 201   Bowling Green W 72-61 87%     3 - 0 +5.4 -7.4 +12.2
  Nov 19, 2018 68   Temple W 57-51 47%     4 - 0 +13.1 -8.4 +21.9
  Nov 20, 2018 45   St. John's L 86-87 37%     4 - 1 +9.0 +0.4 +8.7
  Nov 24, 2018 119   Hofstra W 69-67 71%     5 - 1 +2.8 -11.8 +14.5
  Nov 28, 2018 105   @ Old Dominion L 52-62 45%     5 - 2 -2.3 -9.2 +6.1
  Dec 01, 2018 205   Iona W 88-59 87%     6 - 2 +23.4 +5.5 +15.9
  Dec 05, 2018 42   @ Texas W 54-53 26%     7 - 2 +14.3 -4.6 +19.0
  Dec 09, 2018 7   @ Virginia L 49-57 9%     7 - 3 +13.1 -3.7 +15.3
  Dec 15, 2018 123   College of Charleston W 66-60 72%    
  Dec 22, 2018 115   Wichita St. W 69-64 69%    
  Dec 30, 2018 125   Rider W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 05, 2019 250   @ Fordham W 66-57 79%    
  Jan 09, 2019 258   La Salle W 80-65 92%    
  Jan 12, 2019 81   @ Davidson L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 16, 2019 70   Dayton W 66-64 59%    
  Jan 19, 2019 139   Massachusetts W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 23, 2019 113   @ Rhode Island L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 26, 2019 163   @ Duquesne W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 02, 2019 170   George Mason W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 06, 2019 279   @ George Washington W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 09, 2019 152   @ St. Bonaventure W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 13, 2019 172   Richmond W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 16, 2019 70   @ Dayton L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 19, 2019 113   Rhode Island W 66-61 68%    
  Feb 23, 2019 279   George Washington W 74-58 93%    
  Feb 26, 2019 76   Saint Louis W 63-60 60%    
  Mar 02, 2019 172   @ Richmond W 70-66 65%    
  Mar 05, 2019 170   @ George Mason W 69-65 64%    
  Mar 08, 2019 103   Saint Joseph's W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 21.3 - 9.7 12.1 - 5.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.4 7.6 5.1 2.1 0.5 24.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.3 5.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 6.5 4.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.5 0.8 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.2 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.2 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.8 10.1 13.5 15.2 15.5 13.4 9.7 5.3 2.2 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.6% 2.1    2.1 0.1
16-2 95.5% 5.1    4.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 78.7% 7.6    5.1 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.6% 6.4    2.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.2% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 15.0 6.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 93.8% 42.5% 51.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.3%
17-1 2.2% 87.1% 37.9% 49.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 79.1%
16-2 5.3% 77.6% 33.4% 44.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 66.4%
15-3 9.7% 65.1% 29.4% 35.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 50.6%
14-4 13.4% 50.3% 24.0% 26.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.6 34.6%
13-5 15.5% 35.2% 19.6% 15.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.0 19.4%
12-6 15.2% 21.7% 13.6% 8.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.9 9.4%
11-7 13.5% 12.7% 9.5% 3.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.8 3.5%
10-8 10.1% 7.5% 6.5% 1.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.4 1.1%
9-9 6.8% 4.5% 4.4% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.2%
8-10 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0%
7-11 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.2% 16.4% 14.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.7 8.4 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 68.8 17.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 4.2 23.5 27.7 19.3 16.0 4.2 2.5 0.8 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 97.9% 4.7 2.1 14.6 27.1 35.4 8.3 8.3 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 84.6% 5.2 11.5 26.9 17.3 9.6 5.8 7.7 3.8 1.9