Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#15
Achievement Rating+17.3#18
Pace62.3#330
Improvement-3.7#311

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#13
First Shot+10.2#4
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#192
Layup/Dunks+3.2#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#1
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement-2.0#276

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#36
First Shot+5.5#36
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#156
Layups/Dunks+6.5#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.9#353
Freethrows+5.0#3
Improvement-1.7#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 29.2% 44.3% 19.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 5.4 4.8 5.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round77.3% 81.8% 74.6%
Sweet Sixteen40.3% 46.2% 36.6%
Elite Eight15.6% 18.3% 14.0%
Final Four6.4% 7.8% 5.5%
Championship Game2.3% 2.9% 1.9%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: Virginia (Home) - 37.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 222   Gardner-Webb W 87-59 97%     1 - 0 +21.7 -0.7 +19.4
  Nov 15, 2018 116   Ball St. W 73-64 86%     2 - 0 +12.8 +10.7 +3.2
  Nov 16, 2018 94   Northeastern W 88-60 84%     3 - 0 +33.2 +27.8 +9.1
  Nov 18, 2018 10   Purdue W 89-83 46%     4 - 0 +22.6 +21.9 +0.7
  Nov 24, 2018 232   St. Francis (PA) W 75-37 97%     5 - 0 +30.8 +5.7 +27.2
  Nov 27, 2018 56   @ Penn St. L 62-63 68%     5 - 1 +9.7 +2.0 +7.6
  Dec 01, 2018 300   Central Connecticut St. W 94-40 98%     6 - 1 +43.2 +19.6 +26.0
  Dec 05, 2018 320   VMI W 89-68 99%     7 - 1 +8.2 +4.3 +2.8
  Dec 09, 2018 342   South Carolina St. W 81-44 99%     8 - 1 +20.3 +1.8 +20.2
  Dec 15, 2018 37   Washington W 73-61 66%     9 - 1 +23.3 +12.7 +11.5
  Dec 19, 2018 324   N.C. A&T W 82-60 99%     10 - 1 +8.8 +8.1 +2.0
  Dec 28, 2018 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 85-40 99.8%    11 - 1 +21.7 +21.3 +10.5
  Jan 01, 2019 64   Notre Dame W 81-66 85%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +19.5 +25.4 -3.5
  Jan 05, 2019 95   Boston College W 77-66 89%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +13.1 +9.4 +4.2
  Jan 09, 2019 106   @ Georgia Tech W 52-49 79%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +10.0 -7.4 +17.7
  Jan 15, 2019 3   @ Virginia L 59-81 20%     14 - 2 3 - 1 +2.5 +14.0 -17.0
  Jan 19, 2019 177   Wake Forest W 87-71 95%     15 - 2 4 - 1 +12.6 +14.3 -1.3
  Jan 21, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 82-103 26%     15 - 3 4 - 2 +1.4 +11.7 -8.5
  Jan 26, 2019 40   Syracuse W 78-56 76%     16 - 3 5 - 2 +30.0 +17.3 +14.6
  Jan 30, 2019 60   @ Miami (FL) W 82-70 69%     17 - 3 6 - 2 +22.7 +14.7 +7.7
  Feb 02, 2019 32   @ North Carolina St. W 47-24 54%     18 - 3 7 - 2 +37.5 -4.5 +49.4
  Feb 04, 2019 17   Louisville L 64-72 61%     18 - 4 7 - 3 +4.7 +4.9 -1.0
  Feb 09, 2019 30   @ Clemson L 51-59 52%     18 - 5 7 - 4 +7.1 -1.4 +6.9
  Feb 13, 2019 106   Georgia Tech W 76-68 90%     19 - 5 8 - 4 +9.5 +15.9 -5.4
  Feb 16, 2019 91   @ Pittsburgh W 70-64 76%     20 - 5 9 - 4 +14.2 +10.7 +4.1
  Feb 18, 2019 3   Virginia L 60-63 38%    
  Feb 23, 2019 64   @ Notre Dame W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 26, 2019 1   Duke L 73-79 29%    
  Mar 05, 2019 18   @ Florida St. L 70-72 41%    
  Mar 08, 2019 60   Miami (FL) W 74-63 84%    
Projected Record 22.6 - 7.4 11.6 - 6.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 1.2 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.9 0.4 7.2 5th
6th 0.2 7.1 6.8 0.1 14.3 6th
7th 0.1 5.0 17.1 1.9 24.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 13.9 7.7 0.0 22.8 8th
9th 0.1 5.6 11.1 1.1 18.0 9th
10th 0.5 4.7 1.4 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.6 1.0 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.3 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 1.7 12.7 31.7 34.0 16.7 3.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.3% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 3.1 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.7% 100.0% 5.4% 94.6% 4.1 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.5 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 34.0% 100.0% 3.5% 96.4% 5.0 0.1 2.4 8.5 11.8 8.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 31.7% 100.0% 2.4% 97.5% 5.9 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.8 10.7 6.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.7% 99.7% 1.6% 98.1% 6.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.4 4.0 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 1.7% 96.7% 1.5% 95.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.7%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 3.4% 96.5% 5.4 0.1 1.4 8.2 19.5 25.4 23.6 13.7 5.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.8 34.4 54.7 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 2.8 0.4 33.0 53.2 12.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 3.0 0.5 23.5 51.2 20.8 3.7 0.2
Lose Out 0.4% 87.1% 9.3 4.3 16.7 29.0 23.1 11.3 2.7