Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#11
Achievement Rating+17.1#24
Pace68.4#219
Improvement-0.3#202

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#7
First Shot+9.7#5
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#109
Layup/Dunks+3.5#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.2#1
Freethrows-3.1#314
Improvement-0.7#235

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#27
First Shot+5.9#31
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#138
Layups/Dunks+3.7#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#342
Freethrows+7.9#1
Improvement+0.4#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 8.6% 10.2% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 51.4% 56.7% 33.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.2% 94.9% 87.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.2% 94.2% 86.1%
Average Seed 4.6 4.3 5.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 94.4% 90.4%
Conference Champion 14.7% 15.9% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 1.4% 3.2%
First Round92.5% 94.4% 86.2%
Second Round75.9% 78.9% 66.0%
Sweet Sixteen48.1% 51.3% 37.8%
Elite Eight26.9% 29.0% 20.2%
Final Four14.2% 15.3% 10.4%
Championship Game7.3% 8.0% 5.0%
National Champion3.5% 3.9% 2.2%

Next Game: Washington (Neutral) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 191   Gardner-Webb W 87-59 97%     1 - 0 +23.1 +0.5 +19.6
  Nov 15, 2018 103   Ball St. W 73-64 87%     2 - 0 +13.8 +9.5 +5.4
  Nov 16, 2018 88   Northeastern W 88-60 85%     3 - 0 +33.9 +26.1 +11.5
  Nov 18, 2018 19   Purdue W 89-83 64%     4 - 0 +19.3 +21.8 -2.4
  Nov 24, 2018 216   St. Francis (PA) W 75-37 97%     5 - 0 +31.9 -0.1 +34.0
  Nov 27, 2018 54   @ Penn St. L 62-63 68%     5 - 1 +11.2 +5.6 +5.5
  Dec 01, 2018 264   Central Connecticut St. W 94-40 98%     6 - 1 +45.2 +18.8 +28.8
  Dec 05, 2018 334   VMI W 89-68 99%     7 - 1 +6.0 +4.1 +0.8
  Dec 09, 2018 342   South Carolina St. W 81-44 99%     8 - 1 +20.4 +3.4 +18.7
  Dec 15, 2018 53   Washington W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 19, 2018 322   N.C. A&T W 89-58 99.8%   
  Dec 28, 2018 348   Maryland Eastern Shore W 86-50 100.0%   
  Jan 01, 2019 55   Notre Dame W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 05, 2019 104   Boston College W 83-68 92%    
  Jan 09, 2019 74   @ Georgia Tech W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 15, 2019 7   @ Virginia L 62-66 36%    
  Jan 19, 2019 156   Wake Forest W 84-64 96%    
  Jan 21, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 83-87 36%    
  Jan 26, 2019 31   Syracuse W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 30, 2019 46   @ Miami (FL) W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 02, 2019 28   @ North Carolina St. W 81-80 55%    
  Feb 04, 2019 35   Louisville W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 09, 2019 50   @ Clemson W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 13, 2019 74   Georgia Tech W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 16, 2019 121   @ Pittsburgh W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 18, 2019 7   Virginia W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 23, 2019 55   @ Notre Dame W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 26, 2019 1   Duke L 79-82 39%    
  Mar 05, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 08, 2019 46   Miami (FL) W 79-69 82%    
Projected Record 23.0 - 7.0 12.3 - 5.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 4.5 2.0 0.4 14.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.8 7.9 4.7 1.0 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.8 7.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.6 3.1 0.3 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.1 9.9 13.4 15.8 16.2 14.0 10.1 5.5 2.1 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 97.7% 2.0    1.8 0.2
16-2 81.9% 4.5    3.0 1.5 0.1
15-3 49.1% 4.9    2.0 2.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 16.5% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.7% 14.7 7.6 5.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.1% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.5% 100.0% 26.3% 73.6% 1.5 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.1% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.1 2.5 4.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 14.0% 99.9% 17.8% 82.1% 2.9 0.8 4.7 5.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 16.2% 99.7% 12.8% 86.9% 3.9 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.5 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 15.8% 98.9% 8.9% 90.1% 5.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 3.7 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.8%
11-7 13.4% 96.4% 5.7% 90.7% 6.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.1 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 96.2%
10-8 9.9% 91.4% 4.0% 87.4% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 91.0%
9-9 6.1% 82.5% 2.1% 80.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 82.1%
8-10 3.6% 53.4% 1.6% 51.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 52.7%
7-11 1.8% 20.6% 1.2% 19.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 19.7%
6-12 0.8% 3.4% 0.6% 2.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7%
5-13 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 93.2% 11.8% 81.4% 4.6 8.6 14.0 15.9 12.8 10.5 9.0 6.9 5.8 4.0 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.8 92.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 98.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.9 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.5 7.5