Weber St.
Big Sky
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#154
Achievement Rating+0.9#164
Pace79.0#30
Improvement+2.3#38

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#163
First Shot+1.1#153
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#213
Layup/Dunks-0.2#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#290
Freethrows+2.4#56
Improvement+0.6#125

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot-1.8#235
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#49
Layups/Dunks-5.5#329
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#58
Freethrows+2.0#80
Improvement+1.7#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 18.5% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 85.6% 91.9% 77.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 90.9% 84.3%
Conference Champion 18.7% 22.0% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round16.0% 18.3% 13.1%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 55.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 77   @ San Diego L 66-83 19%     0 - 1 -7.4 -3.2 -3.9
  Nov 15, 2018 325   San Jose St. W 85-77 85%     1 - 1 -2.8 -2.4 -1.4
  Nov 16, 2018 173   Central Michigan W 78-76 55%     2 - 1 +1.2 -2.7 +3.7
  Nov 18, 2018 210   Cal St. Bakersfield L 67-68 63%     2 - 2 -3.9 -4.7 +0.8
  Dec 01, 2018 65   BYU W 113-103 35%     3 - 2 +14.4 +20.5 -8.0
  Dec 05, 2018 61   @ Fresno St. L 52-71 16%     3 - 3 -8.1 -18.3 +11.4
  Dec 08, 2018 50   Utah St. L 67-76 19%     3 - 4 +0.6 -3.2 +4.1
  Dec 15, 2018 140   Utah Valley W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 22, 2018 353   Delaware St. W 90-66 99%    
  Dec 29, 2018 246   @ Eastern Washington W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 31, 2018 286   @ Idaho W 77-73 66%    
  Jan 03, 2019 318   Northern Arizona W 87-74 89%    
  Jan 05, 2019 253   Southern Utah W 85-76 79%    
  Jan 12, 2019 234   @ Portland St. W 85-83 57%    
  Jan 17, 2019 244   Idaho St. W 83-75 78%    
  Jan 19, 2019 137   Northern Colorado W 82-81 55%    
  Jan 24, 2019 297   @ Montana St. W 84-79 67%    
  Jan 26, 2019 111   @ Montana L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 31, 2019 234   Portland St. W 88-80 76%    
  Feb 02, 2019 228   Sacramento St. W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 07, 2019 253   @ Southern Utah W 82-79 60%    
  Feb 09, 2019 318   @ Northern Arizona W 84-77 74%    
  Feb 14, 2019 111   Montana L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 16, 2019 297   Montana St. W 87-76 83%    
  Feb 21, 2019 228   @ Sacramento St. W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 28, 2019 137   @ Northern Colorado L 79-84 35%    
  Mar 04, 2019 244   @ Idaho St. W 80-78 58%    
  Mar 07, 2019 286   Idaho W 80-70 82%    
  Mar 09, 2019 246   Eastern Washington W 80-71 77%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 11.5 13.0 - 7.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 5.0 4.7 3.1 1.2 0.2 18.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.5 6.8 4.1 1.3 0.2 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7 7.0 5.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 20.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 5.3 7.4 9.8 12.2 13.3 13.5 11.7 9.4 6.0 3.2 1.2 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 95.2% 3.1    2.7 0.4 0.0
17-3 78.2% 4.7    3.5 1.2 0.1
16-4 52.8% 5.0    2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.3% 3.1    1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 9.1% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 12.0 5.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 59.7% 58.9% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1%
19-1 1.2% 47.4% 46.7% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3%
18-2 3.2% 40.2% 40.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.9 0.1%
17-3 6.0% 34.0% 34.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.0
16-4 9.4% 27.8% 27.8% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 6.8
15-5 11.7% 22.3% 22.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 9.1
14-6 13.5% 18.0% 18.0% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 11.0
13-7 13.3% 14.1% 14.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 11.5
12-8 12.2% 10.5% 10.5% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 10.9
11-9 9.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 9.0
10-10 7.4% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.0
9-11 5.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
8-12 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-13 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.9 5.6 2.4 83.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 3.7 3.7 6.5 35.5 42.1 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 5.3% 11.0 2.6 2.6