Western Carolina
Southern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#295
Achievement Rating-9.2#280
Pace76.2#55
Improvement+1.3#80

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#308
First Shot-4.3#288
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#225
Layup/Dunks-1.7#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#89
Freethrows-1.5#256
Improvement+0.6#128

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#239
First Shot-4.6#314
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#32
Layups/Dunks-6.0#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#91
Freethrows-2.3#296
Improvement+0.8#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 10.9% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.0% 19.4% 26.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 144   @ Wright St. L 73-96 13%     0 - 1 -18.5 -6.7 -9.3
  Nov 10, 2018 123   College of Charleston L 74-77 23%     0 - 2 -2.6 +3.4 -6.1
  Nov 14, 2018 114   @ SMU L 65-98 9%     0 - 3 -25.8 -10.8 -13.1
  Nov 20, 2018 145   Jacksonville St. L 53-84 20%     0 - 4 -29.6 -22.7 -4.3
  Nov 21, 2018 148   Southern Miss L 63-68 22%     0 - 5 -4.2 -9.8 +5.6
  Nov 24, 2018 303   Jacksonville W 77-65 64%     1 - 5 +1.0 -4.1 +4.4
  Nov 27, 2018 156   @ Wake Forest L 64-71 16%     1 - 6 -3.6 -11.3 +8.0
  Dec 01, 2018 112   @ Furman L 88-90 9%     1 - 7 0 - 1 +5.4 +4.5 +1.2
  Dec 05, 2018 28   @ North Carolina St. L 67-100 3%     1 - 8 -17.3 -11.8 -0.1
  Dec 08, 2018 344   @ UNC Asheville W 71-59 65%     2 - 8 +0.6 +6.2 -3.6
  Dec 15, 2018 248   @ High Point L 64-69 31%    
  Dec 18, 2018 39   @ Iowa L 69-91 2%    
  Dec 21, 2018 201   @ Bowling Green L 71-79 23%    
  Dec 29, 2018 67   Wofford L 66-78 14%    
  Jan 03, 2019 314   Chattanooga W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 05, 2019 189   Samford L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 10, 2019 213   @ Mercer L 65-72 25%    
  Jan 12, 2019 184   @ The Citadel L 86-95 20%    
  Jan 17, 2019 89   UNC Greensboro L 68-78 18%    
  Jan 19, 2019 321   @ VMI L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 26, 2019 126   East Tennessee St. L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 31, 2019 314   @ Chattanooga L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 02, 2019 189   @ Samford L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 07, 2019 112   Furman L 69-78 21%    
  Feb 09, 2019 67   @ Wofford L 63-81 6%    
  Feb 14, 2019 213   Mercer L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 16, 2019 184   The Citadel L 89-92 39%    
  Feb 21, 2019 89   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-81 7%    
  Feb 23, 2019 321   VMI W 77-71 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 126   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-77 11%    
Projected Record 7.8 - 22.2 5.3 - 12.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 6.7 6.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 18.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.9 10.4 7.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 26.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 6.7 8.5 4.2 0.8 0.1 22.2 9th
10th 0.5 2.6 5.1 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.5 10th
Total 0.5 2.7 7.0 12.2 16.2 17.6 15.8 12.1 7.8 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 10.7% 10.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-9 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.4
8-10 7.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 12.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.0
6-12 15.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.8
5-13 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
4-14 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
3-15 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%