Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#83
Achievement Rating+6.1#105
Pace69.1#201
Improvement+0.4#137

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#69
First Shot+5.2#46
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#218
Layup/Dunks+1.1#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#314
Freethrows+4.5#16
Improvement+2.1#30

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#123
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#202
Layups/Dunks+0.0#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#247
Freethrows+2.5#54
Improvement-1.6#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.3% 30.6% 21.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 5.1% 1.2%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.8
.500 or above 94.7% 96.2% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 96.8% 93.7%
Conference Champion 32.8% 33.9% 25.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four2.3% 2.5% 0.8%
First Round28.1% 29.2% 21.0%
Second Round7.0% 7.4% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.0% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 44   @ Washington L 55-73 25%     0 - 1 -5.0 -9.0 +3.3
  Nov 10, 2018 295   Tennessee Martin W 86-71 93%     1 - 1 +4.3 +3.7 +0.2
  Nov 15, 2018 158   Valparaiso W 83-71 71%     2 - 1 +12.2 +11.8 +0.6
  Nov 16, 2018 38   West Virginia W 63-57 30%     3 - 1 +17.3 -3.8 +21.0
  Nov 18, 2018 41   Central Florida L 62-78 32%     3 - 2 -5.4 -1.3 -4.6
  Nov 24, 2018 140   @ Indiana St. L 54-63 54%     3 - 3 -4.1 -9.2 +4.1
  Dec 01, 2018 280   Tennessee St. W 88-74 92%     4 - 3 +4.3 +8.7 -5.0
  Dec 05, 2018 194   @ Missouri St. L 78-84 69%     4 - 4 -5.0 +5.0 -10.1
  Dec 08, 2018 58   @ Arkansas W 78-77 29%     5 - 4 +12.6 +7.4 +5.2
  Dec 16, 2018 206   Troy W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 19, 2018 90   @ Belmont L 80-83 40%    
  Dec 22, 2018 52   St. Mary's L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 29, 2018 13   Wisconsin L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 03, 2019 309   @ Charlotte W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 05, 2019 105   @ Old Dominion L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 12, 2019 129   @ Marshall W 81-80 51%    
  Jan 17, 2019 228   Florida International W 92-79 88%    
  Jan 19, 2019 212   Florida Atlantic W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 21, 2019 129   Marshall W 84-78 71%    
  Jan 24, 2019 149   @ Southern Miss W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 26, 2019 137   @ Louisiana Tech W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 31, 2019 188   Texas San Antonio W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 02, 2019 214   UTEP W 76-64 86%    
  Feb 07, 2019 315   @ Rice W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 09, 2019 121   @ North Texas L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 14, 2019 254   Middle Tennessee W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 16, 2019 217   UAB W 78-66 86%    
Projected Record 17.2 - 9.8 10.1 - 3.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 8.6 12.4 7.8 2.0 32.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.7 9.2 2.9 0.2 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.8 7.9 2.0 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 6.5 2.3 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.0 2.9 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.5 10.0 15.7 20.0 19.9 15.3 8.0 2.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
13-1 97.5% 7.8    6.9 0.9 0.0
12-2 80.7% 12.4    7.5 4.3 0.6 0.0
11-3 43.1% 8.6    2.4 3.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
10-4 9.7% 1.9    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 19.0 9.6 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.0% 67.1% 49.5% 17.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 35.0%
13-1 8.0% 56.5% 43.9% 12.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 22.5%
12-2 15.3% 45.0% 37.7% 7.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.4 11.7%
11-3 19.9% 34.4% 31.3% 3.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 13.1 4.4%
10-4 20.0% 25.7% 24.7% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 14.8 1.4%
9-5 15.7% 17.8% 17.6% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 12.9 0.3%
8-6 10.0% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.8 0.0%
7-7 5.5% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 0.0%
6-8 2.4% 6.0% 6.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
5-9 0.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-10 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 29.3% 26.0% 3.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.8 5.6 9.3 7.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 70.7 4.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.6 1.7 3.3 9.9 18.8 17.1 18.2 13.8 6.6 4.4 5.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 77.8% 8.4 2.2 2.2 4.4 11.1 28.9 8.9 4.4 13.3 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 80.6% 8.6 2.8 5.6 8.3 27.8 8.3 16.7 11.1