William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#204
Achievement Rating-4.9#237
Pace70.7#136
Improvement+1.2#130

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#160
First Shot+2.3#115
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#298
Layup/Dunks+5.9#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement-2.6#292

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#253
First Shot-2.2#236
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#268
Layups/Dunks-3.4#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#111
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+3.8#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.3% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 0.5% 1.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 62.7% 17.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.0% 2.6%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 2.0%
First Round2.8% 3.8% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 225   High Point W 79-69 65%     1 - 0 +3.4 +4.9 -1.6
  Nov 10, 2018 152   @ Duquesne L 70-84 28%     1 - 1 -10.6 +1.0 -11.9
  Nov 15, 2018 196   @ Illinois-Chicago L 95-100 38%     1 - 2 -4.3 +12.1 -15.9
  Nov 17, 2018 65   @ Notre Dame L 64-73 12%     1 - 3 +1.0 -0.7 +1.1
  Nov 20, 2018 135   Radford L 72-81 42%     1 - 4 -9.6 +1.8 -11.9
  Nov 24, 2018 182   Saint Joseph's W 87-85 56%     2 - 4 -2.1 +5.8 -8.1
  Nov 28, 2018 202   @ Marshall L 64-84 39%     2 - 5 -19.7 -13.6 -5.2
  Dec 01, 2018 139   George Mason L 84-87 44%     2 - 6 -3.9 +13.0 -17.0
  Dec 05, 2018 111   @ Old Dominion L 53-71 19%     2 - 7 -11.1 -11.2 -0.9
  Dec 08, 2018 241   @ Hampton W 76-71 47%     3 - 7 +3.1 -2.1 +5.2
  Dec 22, 2018 3   @ Virginia L 40-72 1%     3 - 8 -7.3 -10.7 -3.7
  Dec 28, 2018 258   James Madison W 79-74 71%     4 - 8 1 - 0 -3.4 +0.0 -3.5
  Dec 30, 2018 253   Towson W 71-61 71%     5 - 8 2 - 0 +1.8 +3.9 -0.7
  Jan 03, 2019 249   @ Delaware L 56-58 49%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -4.4 -14.6 +10.0
  Jan 05, 2019 243   @ Drexel W 84-66 48%     6 - 9 3 - 1 +15.9 +3.9 +11.4
  Jan 10, 2019 87   Hofstra L 90-93 29%     6 - 10 3 - 2 +0.1 -7.8 +8.6
  Jan 12, 2019 101   Northeastern L 70-90 33%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -17.9 -2.9 -15.3
  Jan 19, 2019 316   Elon L 71-76 82%     6 - 12 3 - 4 -17.4 -7.8 -9.7
  Jan 24, 2019 252   @ UNC Wilmington L 88-93 50%     6 - 13 3 - 5 -7.7 +5.5 -13.0
  Jan 26, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston L 59-74 21%     6 - 14 3 - 6 -9.0 -7.6 -2.6
  Jan 31, 2019 243   Drexel W 75-69 69%     7 - 14 4 - 6 -1.6 -1.5 +0.2
  Feb 02, 2019 249   Delaware W 84-63 70%     8 - 14 5 - 6 +13.1 +2.8 +9.7
  Feb 07, 2019 101   @ Northeastern L 60-72 17%     8 - 15 5 - 7 -4.4 -10.3 +5.7
  Feb 09, 2019 87   @ Hofstra L 87-93 15%     8 - 16 5 - 8 +2.6 +7.7 -4.7
  Feb 16, 2019 316   @ Elon W 84-74 66%     9 - 16 6 - 8 +3.1 +2.6 -0.2
  Feb 21, 2019 123   College of Charleston L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 23, 2019 252   UNC Wilmington W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 28, 2019 253   @ Towson W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 258   @ James Madison W 72-71 50%    
Projected Record 11.1 - 17.9 8.1 - 9.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 11.4 21.8 7.5 40.7 4th
5th 4.3 22.1 5.5 0.2 32.1 5th
6th 0.1 12.0 2.7 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.7 6.0 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 2.4 0.7 3.1 8th
9th 2.2 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 5.4 23.0 36.3 27.4 7.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 7.9% 6.3% 6.3% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.4
9-9 27.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 25.9
8-10 36.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 35.2
7-11 23.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 22.7
6-12 5.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.7 2.7 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 15.0 17.1 68.8 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%
Lose Out 2.4%