Wright St.
Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#142
Achievement Rating-3.3#208
Pace67.0#251
Improvement-3.2#339

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#112
First Shot+4.4#61
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#301
Layup/Dunks-3.6#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#7
Freethrows+1.7#93
Improvement-1.2#282

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#182
First Shot-1.1#207
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#140
Layups/Dunks+4.5#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#255
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement-1.9#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 24.8% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 79.8% 82.8% 60.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 93.9% 88.9%
Conference Champion 32.3% 33.5% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four2.1% 1.9% 3.4%
First Round23.2% 24.1% 17.6%
Second Round1.9% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 86.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 295   Western Carolina W 96-73 87%     1 - 0 +12.6 +9.2 +0.9
  Nov 10, 2018 63   @ Murray St. L 54-73 19%     1 - 1 -8.1 -7.4 -2.1
  Nov 14, 2018 76   Toledo W 84-74 43%     2 - 1 +13.6 +3.8 +8.9
  Nov 17, 2018 175   North Florida W 89-72 71%     3 - 1 +13.0 +11.1 +1.7
  Nov 20, 2018 54   Penn St. L 59-77 24%     3 - 2 -8.8 -3.1 -6.7
  Nov 21, 2018 112   SMU L 76-77 40%     3 - 3 +3.2 +11.8 -8.7
  Dec 01, 2018 141   @ Indiana St. L 63-69 38%     3 - 4 -1.2 +1.2 -3.1
  Dec 05, 2018 151   Miami (OH) L 62-65 65%     3 - 5 -5.3 -2.6 -3.3
  Dec 08, 2018 143   @ Kent St. L 76-83 39%     3 - 6 -2.4 +9.4 -12.2
  Dec 18, 2018 283   Morehead St. W 79-68 86%    
  Dec 22, 2018 17   Mississippi St. L 64-76 13%    
  Dec 28, 2018 168   Illinois-Chicago W 79-74 68%    
  Dec 30, 2018 182   IUPUI W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 03, 2019 303   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 05, 2019 234   @ Oakland W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 11, 2019 126   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 17, 2019 331   @ Youngstown St. W 81-71 83%    
  Jan 19, 2019 257   @ Cleveland St. W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 24, 2019 294   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-63 86%    
  Jan 26, 2019 204   Green Bay W 82-75 75%    
  Feb 01, 2019 168   @ Illinois-Chicago L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 03, 2019 182   @ IUPUI W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 07, 2019 234   Oakland W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 09, 2019 303   Detroit Mercy W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 15, 2019 126   Northern Kentucky W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 21, 2019 257   Cleveland St. W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 331   Youngstown St. W 84-68 93%    
  Feb 28, 2019 204   @ Green Bay W 79-78 54%    
  Mar 02, 2019 294   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-66 71%    
Projected Record 16.4 - 12.6 12.4 - 5.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.4 8.3 9.1 6.1 2.7 0.6 32.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.5 8.7 5.6 1.7 0.2 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.9 6.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.1 1.2 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.5 6.2 9.2 12.5 15.0 15.6 14.2 10.8 6.3 2.7 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
16-2 96.9% 6.1    5.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 84.0% 9.1    6.8 2.2 0.1
14-4 58.1% 8.3    4.4 3.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 28.0% 4.4    1.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.3% 32.3 21.7 8.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 53.9% 53.5% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7%
17-1 2.7% 48.8% 48.7% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 0.1%
16-2 6.3% 42.0% 42.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.7
15-3 10.8% 37.6% 37.6% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.1 6.7
14-4 14.2% 32.3% 32.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 0.5 9.6
13-5 15.6% 25.3% 25.3% 15.1 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.0 11.7
12-6 15.0% 21.0% 21.0% 15.4 0.1 1.6 1.4 11.9
11-7 12.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.2 10.7
10-8 9.2% 12.4% 12.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 8.1
9-9 6.2% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.6
8-10 3.5% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.3
7-11 1.8% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 1.7
6-12 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.7 10.3 6.0 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 1.3 5.3 34.7 45.3 10.7 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 3.3% 12.0 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 4.2% 13.0 4.2