Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 San Diego St. 100.0%   2   29 - 2 17 - 1 29 - 2 17 - 1 +15.9      +8.3 14 +7.6 17 62.5 330 +20.5 4 +20.2 1
42 Utah St. 100.0%   11   24 - 8 12 - 6 24 - 8 12 - 6 +10.3      +5.2 48 +5.1 53 67.3 231 +11.0 38 +7.4 4
77 Boise St. 0.1%   19 - 12 11 - 7 19 - 12 11 - 7 +6.8      +3.3 85 +3.5 77 70.4 133 +6.8 79 +6.4 6
80 Nevada 0.0%   19 - 12 12 - 6 19 - 12 12 - 6 +6.6      +5.3 46 +1.2 137 74.5 51 +5.4 97 +7.9 3
97 UNLV 0.0%   17 - 15 12 - 6 17 - 15 12 - 6 +5.2      +3.5 80 +1.7 124 66.8 240 +3.8 117 +9.0 2
101 Colorado St. 0.0%   19 - 12 11 - 7 19 - 12 11 - 7 +4.9      +4.7 53 +0.2 167 70.7 128 +5.6 96 +6.6 5
139 New Mexico 0.0%   18 - 14 7 - 11 18 - 14 7 - 11 +1.9      +1.9 127 0.0 179 76.7 34 +3.3 122 +0.1 8
152 Fresno St. 0.0%   10 - 19 7 - 11 10 - 19 7 - 11 +1.0      +1.9 128 -0.9 206 61.4 336 -2.6 210 +0.2 7
191 Air Force 0.0%   11 - 20 5 - 13 11 - 20 5 - 13 -1.6      +3.3 84 -4.9 312 69.7 153 -2.5 209 -3.0 9
227 Wyoming 0.0%   8 - 24 2 - 16 8 - 24 2 - 16 -3.8      -5.1 303 +1.3 132 65.6 262 -5.0 244 -8.2 11
299 San Jose St. 0.0%   6 - 24 3 - 15 6 - 24 3 - 15 -7.8      -3.9 271 -4.0 290 79.3 17 -6.3 268 -5.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 1.0 100.0
Utah St. 2.0 100.0
Boise St. 5.0 100.0
Nevada 2.0 100.0
UNLV 2.0 100.0
Colorado St. 5.0 100.0
New Mexico 7.0 100.0
Fresno St. 7.0 100.0
Air Force 9.0 100.0
Wyoming 11.0 100.0
San Jose St. 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 17 - 1 100.0
Utah St. 12 - 6 100.0
Boise St. 11 - 7 100.0
Nevada 12 - 6 100.0
UNLV 12 - 6 100.0
Colorado St. 11 - 7 100.0
New Mexico 7 - 11 100.0
Fresno St. 7 - 11 100.0
Air Force 5 - 13 100.0
Wyoming 2 - 16 100.0
San Jose St. 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0
Utah St.
Boise St.
Nevada
UNLV
Colorado St.
New Mexico
Fresno St.
Air Force
Wyoming
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   44.3 43.7 10.7 1.3 0.0 100.0%
Utah St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 18.5 61.5 16.5
Boise St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.3% 61.5% 36.6% 19.0% 9.1% 4.3%
Utah St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 40.6% 15.3% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Boise St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 99.9 0.1
2nd Round 95.5% 1.3 4.5 58.1 37.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 67.7% 0.8 32.3 58.6 9.1
Elite Eight 40.1% 0.4 59.9 38.7 1.4
Final Four 20.3% 0.2 79.7 20.1 0.2
Final Game 9.6% 0.1 90.4 9.6
Champion 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4