American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Houston 100.0%   2   13 - 1 8 - 1 21 - 2 16 - 2 +17.6      +7.5 24 +10.2 2 64.2 303 +20.3 5 +17.1 1
56 SMU 48.2%   8 - 2 4 - 2 16 - 7 12 - 7 +10.2      +7.3 30 +2.9 98 72.0 120 +11.5 51 +9.2 4
63 Memphis 20.9%   7 - 5 3 - 2 15 - 11 11 - 8 +9.2      +0.1 167 +9.1 5 79.1 23 +5.0 103 +6.4 5
67 Wichita St. 32.4%   6 - 4 4 - 2 13 - 9 11 - 7 +8.4      +5.2 63 +3.3 92 70.3 164 +11.0 55 +13.7 3
85 Cincinnati 4.8%   3 - 7 1 - 4 9 - 13 7 - 10 +6.4      +1.9 124 +4.5 60 74.7 58 +1.3 155 -0.7 9
86 Tulsa 14.8%   7 - 5 5 - 3 13 - 9 11 - 7 +6.4      +0.6 149 +5.8 39 64.6 294 +9.8 63 +13.9 2
100 Central Florida 4.6%   3 - 6 1 - 5 9 - 12 7 - 11 +5.1      +1.6 130 +3.4 86 66.7 250 +6.7 81 -0.4 8
104 South Florida 3.1%   6 - 5 3 - 3 10 - 11 7 - 9 +4.7      -0.3 177 +5.1 53 66.3 261 +5.6 93 +6.1 6
134 Temple 1.2%   3 - 4 2 - 4 7 - 10 6 - 10 +2.3      -1.0 192 +3.3 87 69.8 179 +5.0 100 +4.6 7
143 East Carolina 0.7%   6 - 3 1 - 3 9 - 12 4 - 12 +1.4      -1.8 214 +3.2 94 70.1 167 +2.5 137 -4.9 11
187 Tulane 0.1%   6 - 4 1 - 4 8 - 14 3 - 14 -2.1      -3.6 265 +1.5 132 67.5 236 -0.3 170 -4.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.1 92.0 6.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
SMU 3.0 8.5 39.3 20.7 14.3 10.8 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Memphis 3.6 5.5 23.9 24.7 19.2 14.7 6.6 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 3.5 4.2 25.6 25.7 20.5 13.8 6.3 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 6.6 0.0 1.3 4.1 7.7 12.9 22.0 20.0 15.1 10.0 4.8 2.1
Tulsa 3.8 1.1 18.9 26.1 25.4 17.4 6.8 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 7.2 0.0 0.8 2.9 5.3 9.8 17.6 19.3 18.5 14.0 8.2 3.5
South Florida 6.7 0.0 0.6 2.5 6.0 11.9 23.5 23.1 17.7 10.3 3.4 0.9
Temple 8.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 4.8 11.4 16.9 21.7 23.7 13.2 5.2
East Carolina 9.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 4.1 7.9 12.9 20.0 32.3 20.4
Tulane 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.6 6.9 13.4 28.5 45.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 11.8 24.6 34.9 23.8
SMU 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 7.0 11.8 16.6 18.9 17.6 12.9 7.2 2.4 0.3
Memphis 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.5 11.1 16.3 18.5 17.5 13.2 7.8 3.4 0.9 0.1
Wichita St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 6.2 10.9 16.2 19.4 18.6 13.8 8.0 2.9 0.6
Cincinnati 7 - 13 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.9 10.0 15.0 18.7 18.7 15.0 9.2 4.4 1.4 0.2
Tulsa 11 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.7 7.1 13.1 19.7 21.4 18.3 11.4 4.6 1.0
Central Florida 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.2 13.3 17.7 18.6 16.2 11.3 6.6 2.5 0.7 0.1
South Florida 7 - 13 0.6 3.7 9.9 17.6 22.6 20.6 14.5 7.4 2.6 0.5 0.1
Temple 6 - 14 1.3 5.9 13.9 20.4 21.8 17.5 11.2 5.7 1.8 0.5 0.1
East Carolina 4 - 16 3.6 11.2 18.1 20.6 18.7 13.8 8.1 3.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulane 3 - 17 9.8 20.6 24.4 20.2 13.5 7.1 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 92.0% 82.2 8.8 1.0 0.1
SMU 8.5% 3.5 4.4 0.6 0.1
Memphis 5.5% 2.3 2.6 0.6 0.1
Wichita St. 4.2% 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.1
Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 1.1% 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0
South Florida 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Temple
East Carolina
Tulane


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 58.4% 41.6% 2   24.6 32.4 20.5 12.6 5.3 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
SMU 48.2% 12.8% 35.4% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.2 3.0 4.1 6.4 8.7 10.7 8.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 51.8 40.6%
Memphis 20.9% 9.2% 11.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.7 5.5 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 79.1 12.9%
Wichita St. 32.4% 7.6% 24.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.6 5.1 6.6 7.8 5.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 67.6 26.8%
Cincinnati 4.8% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 95.2 1.8%
Tulsa 14.8% 4.2% 10.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.2 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.2 11.1%
Central Florida 4.6% 1.9% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 95.5 2.7%
South Florida 3.1% 1.8% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 96.9 1.3%
Temple 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.8 0.4%
East Carolina 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.3%
Tulane 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.1% 62.2% 36.2% 18.5% 8.6% 3.6%
SMU 48.2% 9.2% 43.4% 20.7% 6.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Memphis 20.9% 4.0% 18.9% 8.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Wichita St. 32.4% 6.6% 28.7% 11.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Cincinnati 4.8% 1.0% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 14.8% 4.0% 12.5% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 4.6% 1.6% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 3.1% 0.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.3 13.6 48.9 31.2 6.0 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.2 18.1 52.1 25.9 3.7 0.1
2nd Round 95.4% 1.4 4.6 56.7 33.8 4.7 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 68.4% 0.8 31.6 60.3 7.8 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 39.6% 0.4 60.4 38.2 1.4 0.0
Final Four 19.8% 0.2 80.2 19.6 0.2
Final Game 9.0% 0.1 91.0 9.0 0.0
Champion 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7