Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
34 Saint Louis 68.4%   10   7 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 4 7 - 3 +11.9      +6.9 33 +5.0 55 69.7 183 +14.5 26 0.0 11
58 St. Bonaventure 55.7%   12   8 - 1 6 - 1 13 - 3 11 - 3 +9.8      +3.9 82 +5.9 37 63.9 309 +16.2 15 +15.5 1
61 Richmond 49.8%   9 - 4 3 - 2 16 - 7 10 - 5 +9.5      +7.4 26 +2.0 119 71.6 128 +10.7 57 +7.4 5
65 Virginia Commonwealth 35.7%   11 - 4 4 - 2 17 - 7 10 - 5 +8.5      +1.1 144 +7.5 15 73.4 79 +10.6 58 +8.2 3
68 Rhode Island 14.8%   7 - 8 4 - 4 13 - 11 9 - 7 +8.3      +2.8 101 +5.5 45 74.8 55 +6.1 85 +5.6 6
69 Davidson 15.1%   9 - 5 5 - 2 15 - 8 11 - 5 +8.2      +7.3 31 +1.0 146 62.0 332 +5.9 88 +8.4 2
88 Dayton 10.4%   8 - 4 4 - 3 13 - 9 9 - 8 +6.2      +3.1 91 +3.1 96 63.1 318 +6.4 83 +3.2 9
99 Massachusetts 5.5%   5 - 3 4 - 1 10 - 7 9 - 5 +5.1      +4.0 80 +1.1 141 77.6 33 +2.5 136 +7.4 4
126 Duquesne 1.3%   4 - 6 3 - 5 8 - 10 7 - 9 +2.7      -0.5 183 +3.3 90 67.9 229 +1.0 158 +0.5 10
145 George Mason 0.9%   7 - 6 4 - 4 11 - 12 8 - 10 +1.1      -1.7 211 +2.9 99 66.8 248 +1.4 148 +4.1 7
172 La Salle 0.3%   6 - 8 4 - 4 9 - 14 7 - 10 -0.8      -1.3 200 +0.5 159 70.8 153 +1.3 152 +3.7 8
205 George Washington 0.1%   3 - 9 2 - 3 6 - 15 5 - 9 -3.1      +0.2 165 -3.3 264 72.9 96 -9.9 302 -1.5 12
208 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   1 - 12 0 - 7 4 - 19 3 - 14 -3.2      +0.2 164 -3.4 269 78.1 30 -9.1 287 -10.9 14
279 Fordham 0.0%   1 - 6 1 - 6 3 - 15 3 - 14 -7.3      -9.3 336 +2.0 121 60.4 342 -7.3 273 -7.3 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 7.5 0.1 1.9 5.3 7.8 10.0 11.0 12.6 12.4 12.4 11.4 9.5 4.5 0.9 0.1
St. Bonaventure 2.1 45.5 27.3 13.9 6.6 3.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Richmond 4.1 11.8 18.0 18.3 14.6 11.6 8.5 6.6 4.4 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 4.2 12.2 16.7 17.0 15.1 12.7 9.0 6.9 4.6 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 5.6 3.7 8.0 11.7 13.9 14.1 12.4 11.3 9.1 7.0 5.1 3.0 0.6 0.1
Davidson 2.1 51.7 20.6 12.1 6.8 4.0 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dayton 5.8 6.1 9.1 10.3 11.5 11.5 10.6 10.5 9.0 8.5 7.0 4.9 1.0 0.1
Massachusetts 5.3 8.1 10.7 11.9 12.6 12.2 11.0 10.0 7.8 6.9 4.9 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 8.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 5.4 7.6 9.3 11.3 12.4 14.0 14.1 14.6 5.3 1.1 0.1
George Mason 6.6 2.6 4.7 6.8 9.2 11.6 12.4 13.7 12.5 10.8 8.2 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0
La Salle 8.3 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.4 6.3 8.8 11.5 13.5 15.5 15.6 13.9 5.5 0.8 0.0
George Washington 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.6 9.5 17.8 41.2 15.0 3.6
Saint Joseph's 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 5.2 16.1 37.9 36.7
Fordham 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 4.4 14.6 40.1 38.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 7 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 7.4 14.6 22.4 25.2 18.9 7.6
St. Bonaventure 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.9 7.4 18.5 30.0 29.3 12.6
Richmond 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 6.1 14.6 22.3 25.0 19.1 8.7 2.0
Virginia Commonwealth 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.4 15.1 24.0 24.8 18.3 8.1 1.6
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.2 1.6 6.0 14.3 23.4 25.9 18.8 8.2 1.6
Davidson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 8.4 17.0 24.9 25.0 16.0 5.0
Dayton 9 - 9 0.4 2.8 8.4 16.3 21.6 21.1 15.7 8.8 3.9 1.0 0.2
Massachusetts 9 - 9 0.2 1.7 6.3 13.4 20.3 22.4 19.1 11.3 4.5 0.9
Duquesne 7 - 11 0.5 3.5 10.6 19.2 25.2 22.1 13.4 4.7 0.9
George Mason 8 - 10 0.4 3.4 11.0 21.6 25.7 21.1 11.2 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 2.2 10.1 22.0 27.3 21.8 11.6 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
George Washington 5 - 13 2.9 13.5 25.4 27.5 18.4 8.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 3 - 15 4.5 14.9 23.9 24.3 17.4 9.6 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
Fordham 3 - 15 15.2 29.3 27.7 16.9 7.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 45.5% 24.0 14.6 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Richmond 11.8% 3.4 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 12.2% 3.9 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 3.7% 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 51.7% 31.2 14.0 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dayton 6.1% 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 8.1% 2.6 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Mason 2.6% 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 68.4% 21.7% 46.6% 10   1.0 2.0 3.8 5.6 5.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 7.2 8.0 8.9 7.1 1.0 0.1 31.7 59.6%
St. Bonaventure 55.7% 17.5% 38.2% 12   0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.6 7.4 8.2 10.9 9.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 44.3 46.3%
Richmond 49.8% 14.7% 35.1% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.3 4.5 8.0 11.4 12.4 7.5 0.6 0.0 50.2 41.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 35.7% 11.3% 24.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.2 2.2 4.2 7.0 9.4 8.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 64.3 27.5%
Rhode Island 14.8% 9.2% 5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.7 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 85.2 6.1%
Davidson 15.1% 12.7% 2.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.5 5.4 3.6 0.9 0.1 84.9 2.8%
Dayton 10.4% 5.7% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 89.6 5.0%
Massachusetts 5.5% 4.5% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 94.5 1.1%
Duquesne 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 98.7 0.0%
George Mason 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.1 0.0%
La Salle 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
George Washington 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Saint Louis 68.4% 8.6% 64.3% 37.2% 15.7% 6.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
St. Bonaventure 55.7% 11.5% 49.5% 22.1% 7.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Richmond 49.8% 8.3% 45.3% 18.6% 5.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 35.7% 8.9% 30.8% 11.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Rhode Island 14.8% 2.8% 13.3% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 15.1% 1.5% 14.3% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 10.4% 2.2% 9.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 5.5% 0.6% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.6 9.5 37.9 38.9 12.5 1.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.3 0.0 15.1 43.9 33.1 7.4 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 73.3% 1.0 26.7 47.8 21.9 3.5 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 31.4% 0.3 68.6 28.3 2.9 0.1
Elite Eight 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.1 0.3 0.0
Final Four 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Final Game 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3