Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Virginia 98.8%   3   10 - 2 6 - 0 18 - 5 14 - 3 +16.9      +9.1 13 +7.8 12 53.4 348 +16.7 11 +23.6 1
11 Florida St. 97.9%   3   9 - 2 5 - 1 17 - 5 13 - 4 +16.2      +10.6 6 +5.7 41 72.1 116 +16.1 16 +18.5 2
30 North Carolina 72.3%   9   10 - 5 5 - 3 16 - 10 11 - 8 +12.4      +5.4 58 +7.0 24 74.3 65 +13.5 36 +12.1 7
37 Syracuse 54.6%   11   9 - 4 3 - 3 15 - 9 9 - 8 +11.8      +7.9 19 +3.9 73 70.6 155 +9.7 64 +8.6 10
38 Louisville 80.5%   8   10 - 3 5 - 2 16 - 8 11 - 7 +11.8      +6.5 40 +5.3 51 65.8 268 +15.0 23 +14.2 4
46 Georgia Tech 44.2%   7 - 4 3 - 2 13 - 9 9 - 7 +11.1      +6.9 34 +4.1 66 67.4 239 +9.3 66 +14.4 3
53 Duke 21.4%   5 - 5 3 - 3 11 - 11 9 - 9 +10.3      +6.6 38 +3.8 75 72.1 115 +6.9 80 +9.2 9
54 Virginia Tech 67.5%   10   11 - 3 5 - 2 16 - 9 10 - 8 +10.3      +4.9 66 +5.4 47 64.2 304 +14.1 30 +13.8 5
59 Clemson 69.5%   10   9 - 4 3 - 4 15 - 9 9 - 9 +9.7      +3.1 93 +6.6 28 64.8 290 +15.4 22 +10.8 8
60 Pittsburgh 47.0%   8 - 3 4 - 2 13 - 8 9 - 7 +9.7      +3.4 88 +6.2 33 72.8 100 +11.4 52 +13.1 6
71 North Carolina St. 7.3%   6 - 5 2 - 4 11 - 11 7 - 10 +7.8      +5.6 54 +2.2 116 71.7 125 +5.7 90 +5.4 11
83 Notre Dame 1.6%   4 - 8 1 - 5 9 - 14 6 - 11 +6.8      +7.7 21 -0.9 196 67.6 234 +4.9 104 +1.5 14
93 Miami (FL) 1.4%   6 - 7 2 - 6 10 - 15 6 - 14 +5.7      +2.0 117 +3.7 78 69.0 201 +3.8 120 +3.7 12
101 Wake Forest 0.6%   3 - 6 1 - 6 7 - 13 5 - 13 +5.0      +4.1 78 +0.9 147 72.3 108 +2.2 141 +1.7 13
107 Boston College 0.2%   3 - 10 1 - 6 6 - 18 4 - 14 +4.6      +3.5 86 +1.1 143 74.1 70 +1.8 146 -0.4 15






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia 1.8 58.0 22.6 9.5 4.7 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 2.1 42.1 31.5 13.2 6.3 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 4.2 10.2 17.2 19.8 15.5 11.7 8.6 6.5 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 7.1 0.9 3.4 7.1 9.5 10.7 11.8 11.9 11.2 10.7 8.9 6.7 4.5 1.9 0.8 0.1
Louisville 4.7 7.1 12.9 17.3 15.6 12.8 10.4 8.4 6.2 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Georgia Tech 6.9 1.3 4.2 7.7 10.3 11.8 11.7 11.2 11.0 9.5 8.2 5.9 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.2
Duke 6.6 2.5 6.1 10.0 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.2 9.3 8.8 7.5 5.7 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.2
Virginia Tech 5.3 5.3 10.0 13.0 14.3 13.7 12.1 9.8 8.1 6.0 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Clemson 6.9 0.9 4.0 8.4 10.3 11.7 11.9 11.3 10.8 9.6 8.3 5.8 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2
Pittsburgh 7.4 0.6 2.5 5.8 8.7 10.4 11.7 12.0 12.0 11.8 9.7 7.6 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1
North Carolina St. 9.9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.1 8.7 10.4 12.2 13.3 13.5 10.4 6.8 3.4
Notre Dame 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.3 4.8 7.0 10.0 12.6 15.5 17.3 15.1 10.1
Miami (FL) 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.7 10.9 14.2 16.9 16.1 12.6 6.6
Wake Forest 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.7 4.1 6.1 9.2 13.1 17.8 21.7 21.8
Boston College 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.7 6.6 10.7 17.8 25.3 31.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Virginia 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.0 7.0 13.4 19.9 22.7 18.9 10.6 3.1
Florida St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.5 10.1 17.4 22.8 22.5 15.0 5.3
North Carolina 11 - 9 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.7 11.5 17.8 20.6 19.3 13.3 6.5 2.3 0.3
Syracuse 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.4 12.7 18.3 21.1 18.2 11.9 6.0 1.8 0.3
Louisville 11 - 9 0.1 0.8 3.2 8.3 14.8 19.7 20.4 16.6 10.2 4.4 1.2 0.2
Georgia Tech 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.3 11.7 16.6 20.2 18.5 13.2 7.1 2.6 0.5
Duke 9 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.7 5.9 11.0 15.3 17.9 17.5 13.7 8.8 4.5 1.5 0.3
Virginia Tech 10 - 10 0.3 1.8 5.2 11.8 17.6 20.3 18.8 13.2 7.4 2.9 0.7 0.1
Clemson 9 - 11 0.0 0.6 2.2 6.2 11.5 17.1 20.2 18.6 13.2 7.2 2.6 0.5
Pittsburgh 9 - 11 0.4 2.3 7.1 14.4 19.9 21.4 17.9 10.4 4.6 1.4 0.1
North Carolina St. 7 - 13 0.5 2.4 6.8 12.7 17.5 19.4 17.4 12.2 7.1 3.1 0.9 0.1
Notre Dame 6 - 14 0.5 2.8 7.7 14.3 19.0 20.4 16.5 11.0 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
Miami (FL) 6 - 14 1.1 5.3 12.7 18.6 21.4 18.2 12.4 6.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 5 - 15 1.9 7.2 14.5 19.5 20.2 16.9 10.7 5.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Boston College 4 - 16 2.8 10.7 19.1 23.4 20.6 13.2 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia 58.0% 40.6 13.6 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 42.1% 25.4 12.9 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 10.2% 4.4 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.9% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 7.1% 2.8 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 1.3% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duke 2.5% 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 5.3% 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 0.9% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia 98.8% 30.6% 68.2% 3   17.6 23.5 19.7 14.5 8.9 6.0 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 98.2%
Florida St. 97.9% 25.7% 72.2% 3   9.1 15.4 16.7 15.1 11.9 9.2 8.2 5.5 3.2 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.1 97.2%
North Carolina 72.3% 8.8% 63.5% 9   0.2 0.9 2.2 3.4 5.1 6.3 9.8 10.8 10.8 8.3 7.5 5.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 27.7 69.6%
Syracuse 54.6% 5.4% 49.2% 11   0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.8 6.0 7.6 7.5 8.0 7.4 5.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 45.4 52.0%
Louisville 80.5% 7.3% 73.2% 8   0.4 1.4 3.3 5.1 7.2 9.1 12.1 11.6 10.8 7.6 6.7 4.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 19.5 79.0%
Georgia Tech 44.2% 5.2% 39.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.1 4.7 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 55.8 41.1%
Duke 21.4% 4.2% 17.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 78.6 18.0%
Virginia Tech 67.5% 4.6% 62.9% 10   0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.8 8.0 10.1 11.2 9.9 8.6 5.2 0.8 0.1 32.5 65.9%
Clemson 69.5% 3.0% 66.6% 10   0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.0 8.4 11.1 13.0 10.5 8.2 6.2 0.9 0.1 30.5 68.6%
Pittsburgh 47.0% 2.9% 44.1% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.7 6.9 8.1 7.4 7.4 5.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 53.0 45.4%
North Carolina St. 7.3% 1.2% 6.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.7 6.2%
Notre Dame 1.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 98.4 1.0%
Miami (FL) 1.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6 1.0%
Wake Forest 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.4%
Boston College 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Virginia 98.8% 0.4% 98.6% 85.2% 55.4% 30.4% 15.0% 7.0% 2.9%
Florida St. 97.9% 0.7% 97.7% 78.7% 47.3% 24.4% 11.7% 5.2% 2.1%
North Carolina 72.3% 7.9% 68.7% 39.1% 14.4% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Syracuse 54.6% 7.4% 51.1% 27.5% 9.9% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Louisville 80.5% 6.0% 77.4% 42.6% 15.4% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 44.2% 7.1% 40.9% 21.2% 7.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Duke 21.4% 5.2% 19.1% 9.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 67.5% 7.3% 63.5% 30.0% 9.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Clemson 69.5% 8.1% 65.0% 29.1% 8.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 47.0% 7.7% 42.9% 19.4% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 7.3% 2.2% 6.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 1.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.6 0.1 1.5 11.1 31.2 36.2 16.8 2.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.2 3.0 16.8 36.6 31.2 10.9 1.3 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 3.9 0.1 1.4 9.3 26.9 34.2 20.9 6.4 0.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 91.7% 1.8 8.3 32.0 38.3 17.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 62.9% 0.8 37.1 45.6 15.4 1.9 0.1
Final Four 32.6% 0.4 67.4 29.5 3.0 0.1
Final Game 14.7% 0.1 85.3 14.4 0.3
Champion 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8