Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
120 Liberty 56.3%   15   9 - 5 4 - 2 15 - 7 10 - 4 +3.6      +1.5 132 +2.0 120 61.0 339 +3.2 127 -0.9 2
210 Bellarmine 1.1%   5 - 5 4 - 2 11 - 9 10 - 6 -3.4      -3.9 271 +0.5 158 65.7 274 -3.8 216 -2.3 5
211 Lipscomb 13.8%   7 - 8 5 - 3 12 - 11 10 - 6 -3.5      +1.1 142 -4.5 295 65.0 286 -3.9 222 -1.5 3
232 NJIT 4.8%   5 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 9 0 - 0 -4.7      -3.1 254 -1.6 216 68.5 216 -3.7 215 0.0 1
244 Stetson 8.0%   3 - 7 2 - 4 8 - 10 7 - 7 -5.2      -1.2 197 -4.0 281 66.4 258 -3.5 209 -4.5 7
253 North Alabama 1.5%   5 - 3 5 - 1 8 - 8 8 - 6 -5.8      -5.8 314 0.0 171 76.5 38 -5.6 250 -2.0 4
266 Florida Gulf Coast 5.4%   4 - 5 1 - 3 9 - 8 6 - 6 -6.4      -5.8 315 -0.6 185 71.1 142 -4.6 230 -9.5 9
268 North Florida 5.9%   5 - 9 4 - 2 9 - 13 8 - 6 -6.6      -0.3 176 -6.3 323 69.5 187 -6.5 263 -2.5 6
298 Jacksonville 2.8%   7 - 7 3 - 3 10 - 14 6 - 10 -8.7      -5.5 310 -3.2 260 67.9 228 -7.2 271 -8.0 8
341 Kennesaw St. 0.3%   0 - 13 0 - 8 2 - 19 2 - 14 -14.4      -12.0 343 -2.5 238 69.0 204 -22.5 343 -22.6 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 1.8 54.3 25.1 13.0 4.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Bellarmine 2.4 35.7 24.3 20.2 10.1 5.2 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0
Lipscomb 2.4 30.0 30.6 22.0 9.6 4.8 2.2 0.6 0.1
NJIT 9.8 20.9 79.1
Stetson 5.5 0.5 3.4 8.0 15.9 21.0 19.6 17.7 13.3 0.6
North Alabama 4.0 10.5 12.3 15.3 21.3 18.0 14.8 6.8 0.9
Florida Gulf Coast 6.5 0.0 0.5 2.6 9.7 14.3 16.8 22.4 31.0 2.6
North Florida 4.6 3.8 8.3 14.3 23.6 19.1 16.5 10.7 3.7 0.0
Jacksonville 5.9 1.8 3.5 5.6 10.5 14.5 17.8 23.1 22.9 0.3
Kennesaw St. 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 7.5 91.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.2 13.3 25.3 32.1 22.2
Bellarmine 10 - 6 0.0 0.5 1.8 5.5 12.0 19.7 23.7 20.5 11.9 3.7 0.6
Lipscomb 10 - 6 0.1 0.8 4.8 12.8 22.4 26.1 20.1 10.3 2.7
NJIT 0 - 16 100.0
Stetson 7 - 9 0.1 1.3 5.8 14.2 21.9 25.0 19.0 10.0 2.6
North Alabama 8 - 8 4.3 12.9 21.2 23.3 19.1 11.9 5.3 1.7 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 6 - 10 0.4 2.2 6.7 14.2 21.2 23.5 19.0 10.2 2.7
North Florida 8 - 8 1.4 6.5 15.7 24.1 25.0 17.6 7.9 1.6 0.2
Jacksonville 6 - 10 3.5 11.6 20.4 23.0 19.0 12.8 6.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 2 - 14 20.9 33.1 25.7 13.6 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 54.3% 31.8 17.0 4.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 35.7% 19.3 11.7 4.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lipscomb 30.0% 13.0 12.0 4.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
NJIT
Stetson 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 10.5% 4.7 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida 3.8% 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 1.8% 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 56.3% 56.3% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 2.8 11.6 21.1 16.4 4.3 43.7 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Lipscomb 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 12.0 86.2 0.0%
NJIT 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 95.2 0.0%
Stetson 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 7.2 92.0 0.0%
North Alabama 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.0 94.6 0.0%
North Florida 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.8 94.1 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 2.8 97.2 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 56.3% 1.0% 56.0% 5.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 13.8% 9.2% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 4.8% 2.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 8.0% 6.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.4% 4.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 5.9% 5.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 83.7% 0.8 16.3 83.7
2nd Round 6.0% 0.1 94.0 6.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0